TEITS

Just catching up on the output and the first striking feature is the 06Z GEFS ensembles. Some were worried the mild, zonal spell would last all of Jan and yet according to the ensembles & GFS Ops its only 7 days. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150103/06/prmslAberdeenshire.png The period from the 10th Jan to 15th suggest the zonal spell will continue but will be cold/cool rather than mild due to the flow veering WNW, NNW,ly. The 15th Jan onwards and yet according to the GEFS Iceland SLP mean the 06Z GFS SLP was much higher. However this has been the 6th run in a row to be so with the control always the same. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150103/06/prmslReyjavic.png So my summary remains unchanged. Turning colder but still unsettled from the 10th Jan and possibly becoming even colder from the N/NE around 15th Jan. Obviously subject to change but that is the trend.

Might be at a silly timeframe but who cares far, better than the tripe we are currently experiencing. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.gif So yet again another excellent GFS F.I run.

Thankfully I have more time to post now. A couple of points I wish to highlight. Take a look at the N hemisphere chart as from today. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010306/gfsnh-0-6.png?6 Now fast forward to +168 to +240. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015010300/ECH1-168.GIF?03-12 Now it is during this period as the core of the PV is to our NW that very strong winds could occur and even possible cold NW,lys. Fast forwarding again to distant F.I and yet again the trend towards the PV weakening and splitting continues. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-324.png?0 At this stage any blocking and following cold N,lys is more likely due to HP to our W ridging NW. How we continue from this stage is uncertain. We may eventually see blocking become established over Greenland rather than the Atlantic but this depends on the PV and whether it will reform or not.

How exactly am I claming victory. Just pointing out that the cold F.I charts I mentioned are now appearing on the GFS runs. Whether they actually become reality is another matter. Please read my posts properly because I did state I hope this trend becomes reality. This mornings GFS & GEFS control run continues with the trend. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-384.png?0

My comment with regard to F.I charts in the coming days appear to be showing themselves on the GFS runs. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010218/gfsnh-0-384.png?18 Hopefully this is just the beginning to the trend towards more exciting F.I charts becoming reality.

Also worth mentioning that a few of us members have only suggested hints of a change. Im not trying to be argumentative but sometimes it would be nice to acknowledge other members other than Fergie/Met O. Some of us predicted the colder spell during xmas ahead of the Met O but received sod all credit!

Welcome to the forum. Nice to see a fellow Italian as my father was born in Palermo, Sicily. Very few positives to take from the output this morning except a few tiny hints towards the end of the GEFS members. A few colder members developing. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150102/00/t850Aberdeenshire.png Hints of pressure rising across Iceland after the mean drops to 980mb. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150102/00/prmslReyjavic.png

I stand by my post last night. Note the word MILD & zonal. What is clear to me is slowly the pattern will change from mild, zonal with brief colder spells to a colder zonal period. in around 10 days time. I have just seen Ian F post referring to a more NW,ly flow in the longer range. Another trend I am noticing, more so on the 0Z GFS/GFSP is the polar vortex to split around mid Jan with one lobe across Siberia and the other W of Greenland. Now ideally we want the lobe W of Greenland to be weaker and further W and this in my opinion remains possible. As a result of this a colder N,ly flow becomes possible. So in summary the unsettled, mild weather will eventually be replaced by unsettled colder NW,lys in around 10-15 days time. Thereafter an even colder N/NE,ly flow for the 2nd half of Jan.

Im off and would like to wish you all a Happy New year. Also pleased to say it appears to me the mild, zonal spell won't be as prolonged as we initially thought.

Always have hope when a chart like below occurs. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs2161.gif

Have they been in our favour though? If that is the case then why did the seasonal models predict such a positive NAO/AO winter? Also I do recall Accu weather winter forecast for Europe also predicting a winter above average.

You know the output is poor when I can't even find a GEFS member below -6C. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141231/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png The SLP mean for Iceland says it all. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141231/00/prmslReyjavic.png Apart from the SSW the other straw im clutching is I do recall numerous times how the models can dramatically change. Never forget the awful output during late Jan 2005 and how this changed significantly towards blocking in Feb.

Very disappointed with the output this morning. Back in early December I said it was 1-0 to the seasonal models and if the output remains unchanged then its going to be 2-0. I say this because lets remember earlier on there were conflicting forecasts from the seasonal models which predicted a positive NAO, AO to those other forecasts which predicted a negative NAO/AO especially after xmas into Jan. The straw to clutch is the warming of the stratosphere and how this may impact the stubborn PV.

+384 only takes us to the 15th Jan.

I am no expert like others on here with regards to the Stratosphere. However I feel some are expecting HLB too soon. It appears to me that towards mid Jan we are going to see the PV split and weaken with one lobe vacating Greenland and backing W whilst pressure builds across Greenland. As a result we shall finally see a negative NAO develop. Hopefully this might be shown over the coming days in the F.I charts. You can even see the beginnings of this on the N Hemisphere 18Z GFS run.

Thought I would post this here as I have the highest regard for the Accu Weather forecasters. "However, long range forecast model guidance is trending toward a possible split of the 10mb polar vortex and a possible significant, stratospheric warming event around the 5th, which in turn could translate to a very cold period late in January across parts of southern Canada and the U.S." http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/my-weather-pattern-thoughts-for-canada/39796333

Indeed Frosty and lets be honest suppose the next 15 days are mild but we have a prolonged 7-10 day cold spell at the end of the month. Even if the remainder of the winter thereafter is mild I wouldn't be disappointed. The simple reason being is you have to accept the climate we live in and remember winters like 62- 63 are the exception. The winter of Jan 87 was fantastic in my opinion and yet it was mild apart from the exceptional spell in Jan. Sorry if this appears off topic Mods but lately I have read many negative posts and even "winter is over posts".Remember +384 only takes us to mid Jan!

Just a quickie but based on the comments in the strat thread. If you're looking for the next cold spell then you would be better off looking at the N Hemisphere charts in distant F.I. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014122912/gfsnh-0-384.png?12 Im quiet encouraged at what may develop from mid Jan onwards.

Yes absolutely but my point is these supercomputers must use software to run the program and it is the software and how it has been programmed. These models pretty much use the same starting data but its the programming that makes the ECM much more reliable than other models.

That isn't strictly true. If the models work by simply inputting data then the output & performance of the likes of ECM, GEM, GFS would be identical. So why is it the ECM is more accurate than say the JMA or NAVGEM? The answer is how the supercomputer has been programmed to use the data. Like all hardware you need software to run it. So when members say a model is biased then in some respects this is true because the quirks of each model are as a direct result of the programming.

Really depends on your location. Those who live further N with elevation are at greater risk of snow with the pattern currently modelled coming up. However this does not exclude those low lying areas in the S. However for those in the S it will depend on how far S the jet digs and the track of the spin off lows from the base of the trough. I would also like to apologise to members for my incorrect forecast after xmas. I have to be honest I wasn't expecting this cold, zonal pattern and expected the block to our E to remain in situ and then move further N

The ECM is exactly what I was alluding to earlier. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif With the jet running SE a relatively weak area of HP is enough to potentially bring cold, snow. I shall have to check the archives later but im sure it was the winter of 2012/13 that often bought the snowfalls.

Certainly understand your post. Without being rude to those who produce forecasts using techniques you mention above, but I take very little notice of what is said unless I can visually see it in the model output at a sensible timeframe. I still prefer the approach of using the model output out to +192 and then using forecasting instincts from +192 to +384 to see how that period is likely to develop. Part of the fun of model watching for me is to figure out where the models are wrong in F.I because lets be honest they usually are. Going back to my previous post and the Parallel is a good example of how the output can change more favourably for cold/snow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs2521.gif Remember many make the mistake in assuming we need a 1050mb GH to deliver the goods but sometimes this isn't necessary. A modest rise in pressure to our N is enough and the winter of 2012/13 is a good example of this that bought many snowfalls to my location. G

After reading some of the posts im not as convinced that a return to mild, zonal weather is as likely as some suggest. If we take the 06Z at +228 for example and this run keeps the main low out west and we see low pressure split off the main low and head towards the Med. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.gif If you look at the predicted temps of the GFS upto +228 you will be hard pushed to find any mild temps except in the extreme W/SW. Infact for central/E areas the temps are predicted to be below average. Remember the ECM for this current period did at one stage predict mild SW,lys that originated from Jamaica. My point is there is scope for the output to change especially during the period I highlight above.

After a period of rain/sleet we now have proper snow here.