TAFKAP

Now THAT looks interesting. Going to be fascinating comparing with the existing models when it is available. Pity it wasn't working right now with all the interest from the stratosphere.

Will this new NAVGEM be any better, I suppose the only way is up!

Thank you Rybris.

Sorry but are you even reading what I'm saying. The point I am making is that they have no relevance to model discussion or to nwp output.

Solar flares have nothing to do with the nwp. They should be discussed in another thread and are quite frankly off topic in this particular thread. Put the solar flare stuff somewhere else and feel free to go nuts discussing everything from the impact of solar flares on tropospheric conditions and even the impact of the iluminati and the lizard people who David Icke says rule the world, just not here.

The models do not take solar flares into account and I think any more comments about solar flares should be deleted or moved to a more appropriate thread.

I still find it odd that even experienced members confidently speak of the model output showing conditions 10 days into the future as gospel.

Exactly, EYES DOWN and enough discussing incredibly unlikely scenarios for a cold spell failing. It could of course go either way but a solar flare will have as much effect as if we all floated up to the stratosphere and farted simultaneously. Back to discussing the nwp for god's sake.

Provide some proof solar flares were to blame for those times.

That solar flare has about as much chance of scuppering this cold spell as Westham do of winning the champions league. Why go out of our way to look for obscure and implausible reasons as to why a cold spell which hasn't even arrived could be a no go.

Sounds great. A week of sunny and frosty to dry and chill the ground followed by snow then more sunny and frosty. Rinse and repeat!!!

I for one hope for cold with no snow. A long spell of sunny frosty weather will help dry us out a treat. Just what the doctor ordered!

I'm only saying it because bushfires in Australia are an incredibly destructive and deadly phenomena. If I were living in Australia I'd be praying for rain and cool temperatures.

The met office text forecast update appears to be on board with an increasing trend towards colder conditions. I wonder which hymn sheet they are singing from though?

I shouldn't think it is too exciting for the people whose homes and businesses could burn down or have already done so.

Great to see excitement mounting once again, that 10 day chart mentioned by mountain shadow is looking very promising indeed. I anticipate that within the next day or so the doom mongers will be out in force again but I am convinced this time the cold is going to be the real deal.

I hope not! I don't want to 'relive' the damp weather lol

Takes over a weak what? A weak SSW?

Happy Christmas to all and lets have a frigid January, February AND March with a surprise snowfall in early April for good measure followed by a searing summer.

A very promising turnaround by the models and plenty of potential for the future too. Some will pooh pooh this output but the models have been flip flopping and floundering so much lately that this outcome is likely as any. Loving the GFS precip type chart for Xmas Day and I suspect a very interesting new year will follow!

Copy of my post in hunt for cold. Whatever happened to Keep Calm and Carry On?!?!? Everyone needs to snap out of it. Why oh why is it so hard to remember a few basics before reaching for the razor and baring your wrists. 1) The models do not dictate the weather. The weather at the particular period in time the model data is gathered dictates the models. 2) The models are not better at predicting mild. The UK is more often than not mild so predicting a more likely outcome inevitably leads to a better 'success' rate. 3) FI will ALWAYS be FI until we develop computers that are orders of magnitude more powerful and gather data covering more of the entire atmosphere. 3) (a) Has no body learned anything from the last couple of weeks? Weather can only be predicted accurately a few days ahead, especially in the UK. On the positive side this is the best time of year for mild. The weather allows people to travel to see loved ones and may prevent the UK slipping into a triple dip recession due to reduced economic output from lost spending over the Christmas period. Also the 'big' winters of 62/63 and 47 began after Christmas so plenty of time yet. Would everyone please cheer the heck up, stop having such a short memory and think of the bigger picture. Much love.

Everyone needs to snap out of it. Why oh why is it so hard to remember a few basics before reaching for the razor and baring your wrists. 1) The models do not dictate the weather. The weather at the particular period in time the model data is gathered dictates the models. 2) The models are not better at predicting mild. The UK is more often than not mild so predicting a more likely outcome inevitably leads to a better 'success' rate. 3) FI will ALWAYS be FI until we develop computers that are orders of magnitude more powerful and gather data covering more of the entire atmosphere. 3) (a) Has no body learned anything from the last couple of weeks? Weather can only be predicted accurately a few days ahead, especially in the UK. On the positive side this is the best time of year for mild. The weather allows people to travel to see loved ones and may prevent the UK slipping into a triple dip recession due to reduced economic output from lost spending over the Christmas period. Also the 'big' winters of 62/63 and 47 began after Christmas so plenty of time yet. Would everyone please cheer the heck up, stop having such a short memory and think of the bigger picture. Much love.

Sorry everyone for being a d*ck and letting my irritation with the madness of the models get out of control. Peace and goodwill to all!

Oh alright, point taken. I was out of order. Snowy I have PM'd you with an apology.

I'm moaning aren't I? So I'm posting in exactly the right place. Also I think your holier than thou attitude is very rude. I love weather but I'm not so unstable that I throw tantrums and get depressed about it. And you should read the strat thread, maybe you'd gain some actual meteorological knowledge. I know there is but thank you for not encouraging them!