TAFKAP

Is anyone else becoming increasingly convinced this will be a winter to remember. Delighted with the surprise snow IMBY this AM and model outputs trending towards some fantastic outcomes. Teleconnections still looking good, the polar vortex still hit for six and even the normally reticent METO is starting to mention strat warming and hint at colder conditions.

The man predicted the demise of cold winters for the UK. That for me is enough. The even larger teapot is dead. REJOICE! (unless you're Mr B or a one of his fanboys)

Is anyone else excited about the potential for next week? ZOMG ROFL LMAO LOL (*fap fap fap*), loss of bowel control, uncontrollable excitement! It looks like winter is about to punch Britain in the face with a searing cold uppercut!! Exciting times folks, exciting times and if that isn't winter EMOTIONS then I don't know what is. IT GONNA GET COLD!!!

I can just about read that lol NB a comment well worth remembering. I think a lot of the people who post on the model thread (the whiners and moaners that is) must be too young to properly remember how mild and snowless many winters in this period were. A great taster to kick off the season this morning with some exciting possibilities creeping in. I am really excited about this winter.

Update: Snow has settled. Just a dusting but very happy with the surprise.

Of course it can happen, the models may produce some unlikely solutions but when functioning correctly the solutions they produce should in a broad sense be plausible. People always seem to forget that weather is a chaotic system and must be modelled as such. In short, chaos theory studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions, an effect which is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general (hence why we have perturbations in the model output, ie slightly different starting points). So the deterministically chaotic outcome which members are currently wetting themselves in excitement about is indeed possible. If you remember this premise model watching will be much less stressful.

My congratulations to the GFS precip type chart. Yesterday's 12z accurately progged snow IMBY when the big guns, ie the Met Office and most posters on this forum were forecasting sleet, well done GFS. Mind you I'll probably curse it soon enough.

We've just had a light flurry of snow IMBY, nothing wet mixed in either. A great example of how you can have upgrades at the last minute considering we were forecast sleet at best.

SNOW in South London just now. Not rain or sleet but snow. Just shows how things can change for the better.

That is what he is famous for, you shouldn't be surprised.

You think you're funny but the Meto is still a superb weather forecasting organisation. Quite frankly met office bashing is dull and shows a severe shortage of wit.

Why? Because it doesn't mention raging blizzards with drifting snow? The problem is the 'despairing' members of the model thread would be better off posting in a snow thread. The update says cold for the most of the uk and no surprise of milder in the far south and southwest because this is par for the course anyway. But you are right! I can see them devouring the prozac.

Nogaps throws an interesting scenario into the mix. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rngp1441.gif But seriously folks, the gfs is about as useful as reading animal entrails at the range people are on about. So put away the prozac as we're not at t48 with a Bartlett high yet. Still a long way to go with as many ups and downs as Katie Price's sports bra during the London marathon.

I'm not going to identify anyone but just thought I'd share one of the ridiculous model thread posts I've seen. Thought you might fancy a laugh at a truly pathetic and childish individual. Someone needs to grow up and stop being such an infant. "Try living down in the south then maybe your opinion would be different. Yes you saw snow yesterday but most of the country DID NOT. Two weeks ago the models were showing along with other strong signals the UK to be in an easterly flow by now bringing frequent snow showers to the East and SE. Today? Nothing of the sort. Every good looking chart is in la la land whether you like it or not - so yes it's perfectly acceptable for folk to get frustrated. Certainly not as you say tedious."

Here are some emotions and moaning, as this thread requires. Having a read through the mod thread at the moment is a case of having to sift through huge piles of crap to find the few jewels of wisdom worth reading. Might I say what a bunch of childish, pathetic infants seem to post that thread. The level of pre-adoloscent petulance and infantile toy throwing is truly a sight to behold. Ironically the half-wits doing this either have about the same level of weather knowledge as my cat and have expectations so high that they must think we live in Oymyakon (no doubt the morons will need to look that up). I'd like to name the band of idiots but don't fancy getting banned. Also I want to make it clear that there are many good model thread posters, it is just the window lickers seem to be out in force at the moment.

Well the solution to this problem is clear. Can the mods please encourage the use of a thread dedicated exclusively to snow watching? That is where these two posts should be. Then the rest of us can keep model watching. Now back to the models I am still pleased to see the surface temps in the ensembles continue below average for London with good clustering throughout. The overall synoptic picture remains positive for a below average winter. Long may it continue.

Posted this in another thread but anyone have any ideas as to how Brian came to this conclusion for his forecast?

LOL good sir. LOL indeed. Might I be so bold as to also venture ROFL and LMAO?

Does anyone out there have an opinion on the TWO winter forecast? I'm curious as to what those more learned than myself think. How did Brian come to such a conclusion and how can he make such a confident call on a cold spell in February, two and half months away. I find his forecasts difficult to understand without a good backing like GP does in his.

The TWO forecast has no explanation that I saw. Perhaps I'm not familiar enough with the website and missed the more detailed forecast. I'm sure Brian does something more than just read tea leaves for his forecast but without any reasoning I find this forecast unhelpful. IMO he is going to have egg on his face come March. Would anyone here perhaps prove me wrong and explain why the TWO forecast has merit? I am happy to be proved wrong if the response is reasoned.

3.2 please

There is no reason for negativity at the moment. Check out the latest ensembles, below average all the way with some nice cold options in the mix. And remember winter's coldest conditions tend to occur after the solstice due to seasonal lag. Building cold at the end of november and start of december is a very positive sign. I suspect most of the most negative posters here are too young to remember the mild mucky horrors of the even larger teapot. If they truly remembered winters which were a mere extension of autumn then they'd be a lot more positive.

There is no reason for negativity at the moment. Check out the latest ensembles, below average all the way with some nice cold options in the mix. Technically winter's coldest conditions tend to occur after the solstice due to seasonal lag. Building cold at the end of november and start of december is a very positive sign. I suspect most of the most negative posters here are too young to remember the mild mucky horrors of the even larger teapot. If they truly remembered winters which were a mere extension of autumn then they'd be a lot more positive.

Wonderful bright and frosty morning. My perfect winter is bright icy weather like this with some nice outbreaks of snow thrown in. I really hope we get plenty of days like this in December to help dry the ground out and help the folks who've suffered so much from the floods.

By next week we should have snow into Central Europe with temps in Poland set to plummet. It is all falling into place!