Mr Maunder

Not overly warm, with the odd colder interlude - I'll go for 8.0c. MM

5.8c for me MM

To try and clear things up here! There has, to date, been one small sunspot that meets the characteristics of a Cycle 24 spot in that it has appeared in a high latitude and has the expected polarity. So, you are right that we have had a Cycle 24 sunspot. But that does not means that Cycle 23 has ended! There are a number of definitions as to when an existing cycle is condidered to have ended and the next cycle started. It is all quite complex but, as a layman, the best rule of thumb guide I can find is when the "smoothed sunspot number" for the new cycle exceeds the "smoothed sunspot number" for the previous cycle. The Smoothing takes place over a running 12 months. (However the actual official cycle start date will be decided by the worthy "academics" who decide these things!) So, as we have 12 months worth of Cycle 23 sunspots already in the bag, so to speak, quite a few Cycle 24 suspots are going to have to appear before Cycle 24 can become the ascendant cycle. So unless Cycle 24 really gets going (and we still only have one spot!) then it may be another 6 to 9 months or even a year before Cycle 24 will "officially" begin. Will 24 be a strong or weak cycle? Opinion seems to be moving towards a weaker cycle due to the length of Cycle 23 (often a precursor to a weak cycle) and the fact the Cycle 24 has not yet kickstarted. A weak cycle could mean an ascendancy of La Nina over El Nino - with temperature implications. However, as ever, only time will tell. Hope this helps. MM

This is quite an interesting subject - and in time the outcome will become apparent. I believe that a La Nina can be associated with the end of a Solar Cycle, which is where we are at the moment with the slow death of Cycle 23. It is interesting that the predicted end for this cycle continues to be moved further in to the future with some predictions now suggesting that the new Cycle 24 will not officially start until 2009. This would give us an extended period of low solar activity during the crossover between Cycles 23 and 24. If this proves to be the case then this could be a factor in delivering an extended La Nina throughout 2008. I've heard it suggested that a prolonged La Nina can also have an influence on sea temperatures beyond the Pacific. I've just been looking at the latest Unisys SST chart (I have not looked for a while) and was surprised to see just how relatively "cool" the global oceans are. Even the North Atlantic has lost many of the more positive anomalies that were present for much of last year. The question raised here is that if La Nina does prove to have legs and does impact SSTs does this have any potential impact for the UK when it comes to Winter 2009? MM

I'll go for 10.28c....I expect the increases in temperaure to level off as the levels of ozone slowly recover. MM

No broadband so a little late! 3.9c MM

December....now it starts to get tougher, the margin for error could be quite large! Despite the projected warm start I am going for 5.7c. I do not expect it to be quite as mild as projected, with a marked cool down as the month progresses. (Hopefully the vortex will not get established over Greenland - we shall see). Can I add my thanks to all those to take the time to organise these monthly CET competitions. It certainly keeps SF and WIB occcupied! MM #158

It does look like a settled and mild start, although I expect the effect of this to be mitigated by a cooler, perhaps more disturbed, second half of the month. So I'll go for 11.1c MM

Pleasant and predominantly settled, but without any spectacular warmth. These factors combined with some cool nights leads me to go for 14.2c. MM

I really cannot see a dramatic warm up coming in August. I expect it to be wetter than average, although nothing like the rainfall amounts in July! With the ground so wet it will be difficult for temperatures to rise quickly during any quieter and potentially warmer spells that occur. So. I'm going for 16.1c. MM

I expect something slightly colder than of late, but still above the long term average......so I'll go for 8.3c. MM

I do expect this to be on the cooler side of things so I'll go for 3.9c. MM

Lets have a bit of decorum here - 10.42c. I'm expecting the El Nino influence to decline and for Autumn/Early Winter to be cooler than 2006 - which is not really a very brave call! MM

Trev, It's always a few days behind the times - just watch the graph rise - as the Canadian ice is now growing quite nicely! MM

Time for another Damocles image - showing the current ice extent with an SST overlay. This shows quite clearly the areas with a potential for some ice development. Not surprisingly, given recent conditions, Canada, particularly Hudson bay, is now looking good in this respect. In addition, the Chukchi and Baring Seas are showing signs that they are finally getting to the point where they may get up to more normal levels. Nearer home there looks to be the potential for some ice growth in both Barents and Greenland seas. Of course it all depends on conditions being favourable, but there must be some cause for optimism given the sea temperatures. MM

I totally agree. Just remember 1987 a bitter NE over a warm north sea. We had about 18" of snow here in about three days (if my memory serves me correct!). It has never been bettered. MM

Well its made my day to see this thread up and running again (and Tamara posting) - long may it continue! Things are starting to move in the Baffin/Newfoundland areas, so the trend should start to show a move upwards again shortly - although steady rather than spectacular growth seems most likely. I'm still quite happy with the overall situation - there is some significant cold developing and there is plenty of time to pass before we reach the time of year when our main snowfalls occur. So, yes it is a question of being patient. For information here is the latest Google Earth Damocles ice map, with SST overlay - which is, I think, quite useful in showing the areas with potential for ice growth. Also note how warm the sea appears around the UK compared to similar latitudes!! MM

Tamara, What you have said sums it up perfectly for me. As far as I am concerned the longer we go without the dam breaking the better the end result could be (but no promises!). It is encouraging to see the ice at a higher level than 2005 and the same can also be said about the snowpack. Is it possible that higher levels of summer melt can actually assist a higher level of early snowfall through the "lake effect" - which in turn helps the cold pooling? I'd be interested in anyone's views on this. MM

Google Earth with Damocles overlays for Ice and SSTs. Although experimental, this gives quite a good feel for the next areas where the ice may advance - and the areas where the SSTs are just too high at present. I'm quite content with the way things are going so far - for the reasons Carinth has already outlined. But its still early days. MM

Steve, Fascinating stuff - it will be very interesting to see how it pans out over the next decade. I like the logic! MM

Yes, things are slowly looking up on the ice cover front - certainly to the east Arctic anyway. I suppose that when there is significant melt to the west the natural current brings the fresher water to the east which may encourage growth there. However, I'm not getting too excited just yet - it is only October 10! I don't know if this has already been covered elsewhere but there is a Google Earth overlay with which you can map (together) the Arctic Ice extent and SSTs (amongst other things). It is updated at least once every 24 hours. If you have Google Earth then go to www.seaice.dk/damocles/Google.html and load the overlay from there. I think it is already really very good- and further developments are planned. And, of course, with Google Earth you can zoom in to areas you are interested in. The ice extent looks accurate when compared to the Cryoshere site and the SSTs should give a good idea where the new ice is likely to form. Oh well, another thing to keep me at my PC in the evenings! MM

11.6 for me MM

I'll have a guess at 14.3c MM

A short but moderate snow shower in Tunbridge Wells. Enough to give a light dusting on grass, cars and house roofs. MM