Mr Maunder

I would not close your mind too much even if this event does not ultimately produce the hoped for northern blocking. Looking back at other events (as has been stated in many posts) a warming event gives no absolute guarantees in terms of blocking and, as a result cold (and snow) for the UK. There have been other January warmings that have not resulted in any noticeably cold weather for the UK - for example 1967 (although to be fair this was not the most dramatic warming). This warming has been a truly significant event and so, perhaps hopes are higher of it leading to truly cold weather. However, this is the first significant warming to place in the Internet age - so it is interesting just to observe and learn - whatever the outcome. Of particular interest will be to look back and try and see how the weather models were influenced by the effects of the warming and when that influence was first felt. It seems to me pretty clear that we will get a February that is significantly colder than those we have been used to in an era when stratospheric cold has been dominating. Warmings appear to have been much more common in the 1950s, 60s and 70s, but rather petered out in the 80's. Whether this is the start of a further consistent period of warmings only time will tell. But if it is, in my view expect some colder winter periods. MM

Was 2.6c here at one point today, now up to 8.7c and still rising - and after a lull in the rain it is now pouring down again. MM

Or makes good reading!Yes cycle 24 really shows no sign of getting going at all in terms of sunspots and adjusted flux is also pretty static. This is , of course, not unprecedented and it is a question of waiting to see if anything happens. The longer the wait, the possibility increases of a low sunspot maximum - but there are still many different views on this. Because of the long hiatus I lean towards a low cycle (circa smoothed max 80), but time will tell. MM

Yes, Tomasz Schafernaker suggested that on News 24 just now and had snow flakes over the SE corner. As it is now all beautifully green here, that would be quite nice! MM

What is coming down here is on the snow side of sleet, but its very very light at present. We need the band of precipitation to move east as we are now on the edge of it, but it does not seem very keen to do so at the moment! Still, plenty of time to go. Temps now down to 1.1c MM

1.4C here in Tunbridge Wells now. Light snow has started, just enough to give my lawn a whiteish tinge. Radar shows more precipitation on its way from the channel. Who knows - this could have a happy ending after all! MM

Here (Tunbridge Wells) it got to 6.0c and is now down at 3.1c, but misty, miserable and just a bit damp. The main band of precipitation coming up through Hampshire/Surrey is actually moving away from us at the moment in a NNW direction. Our hope is that is will pep up a bit, pivot and slowly move SE, being undercut as it moves away. Not much to ask for! It's obvious from the TV forecasts that they are struggling big time, so its down to other observations, radar and infra-red satellite to do the "nowcast". I still have hopes of a bit of snow..........but proably only about 25% confidence at the moment. MM

I must say how much I agree with Laserguy and Tamara. To be a so called "denier" in that I have not bought the full AGW argument I can accept. I can live with that. This does not mean that I am in any way against the conservation of the worlds resources or that I want to see the world "maximise" its carbon output. Here we have, I suspect, a common cause. I am just a "skeptic" that it is all down to CO2 and that, therefore, I must support the politicians in introducing green taxes - not to use these taxes to advance programs to reduce carbon outputs (no that is perhaps too logical) - but instead to just plug holes in their fiscal budgets. In the meantime there is really liittle in the way of real plans to meet long terms objectives or even our short term energy needs. A few loose ideas, long term targets (outside of the political time cycle of course), but more so called green taxes now. It really is a "con". MM

It looks to me as if this will be remembered as one of the "good" winters, but not one of the greats. To be a great winter you are talking about a 1947, 1963 or a 1979 in terms of extended cold and snow. Given that it is only the 5th February and the synoptic prognosis is still for cold to dominate then there are many opportunities for this to move up the scale and start to be compared with, say, 1987 or 1991 - but probably no better. Mr Data's index is very good and even though we are in different parts of the country matches pretty well my perspective of previous winters. In the end your final perspective probably has a lot to do with the amount and length of time of laying snow. For some areas that rarely get a good snowfall this year is probably already a memorable event. For me personally we have had just the one good snowfall in Tunbridge Wells (about 4 inches) that has just been severely diminished by last nights rain. If I get another good snowfall that sticks then I will regard this as a good year. But, so far I have actually had less snow than I had in 2008 - and most of that fell in April! So, here at least, at the moment it is more memorable for the cold than the snow, but there is plenty of time for that perpsective to change - and I do expect more! MM

In my view the uppers suggest rain I'm afraid! The low pressure will have to stay a fair bit south of what is projected for there to be any chance at all. I hope I am wrong!! MM

Technically, no problems, worked fine for me. It was very clear, but, as you develop the idea further, perhaps adding a few graphics to support and demostrate how GP's views might synoptically affect the UK could be a good idea. Excellent concept. MM

I really do not think anyone absolutely knows whether Global warming is taking place or not. There is a debate going on. However, that does not stop individuals from asserting that it is or it isn't with absolute certainty. That is what gets right up most peoples collective noses. Oh, and politicians jumping on the "pro" side as a means to raise taxes (not to finance "green" projects- at least that would show they really thought that action was worthwhile - no, they use it just to cynically justify higher taxes). Oh and whilst I am on my hobby horse the fact that the BBC almost cannot cover any story without mentioning climate change without "doing" the science, either way!! The things that climate change is responsible for are endless. What do I think? I think CO2 is a greenhouse gas. It appears there is more of it than there used to be so I would expect this to be responsible for some warming. How much? I do not know, but I expect to learn more each year and that will help me reach a conclusion as to whether CO2 is the smoking gun or whether other cyclical or external factors are in play. At this stage I suspect that external factors do play a part and I am particularly interested in the solar angle. Just my view. I do, however, tire of being told that the science is settled. To my mind it isn't - I do have that bias and I do like the cold. That does not mean I do not support sensible green measures to conserve the resources of the world. I, like many others, do. But please, save us from the politicians lackeys, lickspittles and manipulators. They just score own goals for the "pro" case - and turn this in to an entrenched argument, not a debate. MM

Yes, it is quite amazing - especially as the radar no longer shows any continuous snow stream. I expect it really is on its last legs now. The temperature has been below freezing point all day - and is now starting to drop again, so whatever is left for us will be snow. MM

(Yet) Another report from the Tunbridge Wells area. Still coming down moderately with small/medium flakes, the temperature below zero and icicles hanging from lamposts. Accumulation continues - I now make it about 8.5 cms - which I would gladly have settled for at the start of this event. All I really hope for now is that this stays as snow until the precipitation ends and we get a frost to preserve what we have got! MM

In Tunbridge Wells, I'd call it moderate snow (no more than that) - plenty of flakes, but still on the small side. No great new accumulation yet from this current band of snow to go with my current 6.5 cm. Temp has been rising, but has stabilised at -0.3c. Looking the radar I think things do look positive for this pm. MM

In Tunbridge Wells I measured 6.5 cm (circa 2.5 inches) this morning. Some of the other readings - particularly Bromley/Sutton areas and the like are quite amazing and remind me of what we had here in 1991! We've had light snow for about an hour here, but all hopes are on the next lot coming from France. MM

Unlike Tamara, in Tunbridge Wells we do, very occaisionally, get a snow streamer - and when it starts it can give quite heavy and prolonged falls - up to 6 inches here. Also we are on higher ground (400 ft plus) so the snow does persist longer and it is not unusual for us to get a good covering and find that at Tonbridge, five miles away, there is nothing. So, when things are marginal we often get the benefit. When I moved here I did not realise quite how high up we were - but over the years it has really paid off. From the models it looks as if Sunday night will see the start of any real event here - and if this is snow (which I confidently expect it will be) then it is a question of how long the precipitation stays as snow. There is a chance that Monday could be all snow and this could persist in to Tuesday - that is if you prefer a mid point evolution between the GFS and ECM model evolutions. I still side more to the ECM view - colder for longer - but at the cost of a lower snowfall - we shall see. Anyway good luck to everyone - it will be very interesting to see the snow reports and the extent its progress inland. MM

I'm going for 3.1c for this month. MM

c, As a warming this is really quite incredible, as it has almost reached the highest stratospheric temperatures for any time of the year since 1979. This has to be a quite extraordinary event. As to the effects, well looking at the ECWMF NH charts it seems to be influencing projected NH heights now with a 1045 mb high over the pole. Is this it - or is this just the start and as the effects become more "modellable" the true influence will become clearer? Given this is such a large event and that it is still in development, my view is that there is much more to come in terms of a negative AO and all that entails. We shall see. MM

c, Those charts are pretty impressive and dramatic - and if high pressure does set up as shown then it is going to get very interesting indeed for the UK! I think that most of the pieces look to be in place for an extended period of above average heights in the NH. But, of course, we have never been in this precise situation before so it is just a question of waiting and watching - and seeing how the models deal with this. MM

1991 - Now that was just fantastic - only beaten by 1987 in my time here. I have to say what a forecast from Mr McC - my all time favourite. A great and totally individual presentation - trying to keep a serious face whilst really being very excited about what was going to happen! I think only Rob M or John Hammond could attempt that today. MM

Yes you are quite right this is unprecedented since these events started to be recorded. As a result we therefore have a lower level of confidence as to what the likely outcome will be! However, as someone who has been watching this for the past three years and has looked at the past history of the various winter warmings I do think that stratospheric temperatures do give a truly valid indicator of the potential for NH troposheric cooling. This particular event does appear to have the makings of a significant MWW - and if it does work its way through then I would expect the timing to be about the second week of February. However this is rather getting ahead of things as we have yet have to see whether MWW + W QBO + Low Solar will actually produce a noticeable event. The real excitement here is that we actually have the opportunity to watch this event progress and (almost in real time) see how it eventually pans out. It is all part of the learning process. MM

Well it is taking a while insn't it? However, I heard someone called John Hammond (not the forecaster John Hammond) on the Radio 4 PM programme last night who said that 2008 was still a "warm year" and it was about half a degree higher than average. So they must have reached some conclusion and I expect the final December figure will come out in the next day or so - and will be in the region 3.6c to 3.8c - probably at the lower end of that range. For example 3.6c for December gives an Annual CET of 9.96c - and this is 0.51c above the 1961-1990 CET, which Hadley use. I'll leave any conspiracy theories alone (for the time being!) MM

C, Many thanks for your reply - what I'm getting at here is do we know just how strong is the link between a cold stratosphere and strong tropospheric vortex in a year when the "stratospheric cold" has already been disrupted. In addition, the fact that it has already been disrupted - does that mean that, when the vortex appears, it is less likely to set up camp over Greenland (as in 2007 and 2008) or move to other regions perhaps more conducive to cold for the UK? MM

John , thanks for clearing that one up for me. You've probably made this clear in the past in one of your many helpful posts. At first glance though I'm surprised there is no Stratospheric data used by the models. However as the lag effect is three to four weeks and models only go out 16 days maximum then this would probably be low down on their list of enhancements. Of course if GFS went out to four weeks..................................no, better not go there! MM