Mr Maunder

11.8c for me please. MM

I'll go for 8.2c this month. MM

I'll go for 4.9c this month. It will be cold start - it just depends how long it holds on for. I think there are signs it could reach the middle of the month. MM

In my opinion the cold is not going away fast. I'm going for 2.9c. MM

Even in 1963 we still had a railway network that broadly covered the country. This was largely kept open enabled remote areas to remain connecte to the real world. That has now gone, so I suspect that any prolonged spell where heavy snowfall persisted could create chaos outside of the main populated areas. MM

Same here in Tunbridge Wells. The roads are better..but that is about all. MM

In my view nowcasting, combined with reading the views of a select band of experts on this forum, are often more productive than watching TV forecasts that can appear to use data that seems, well, hours out of date. Who can forget the Penny Tranter fiasco forecasting the SE to get plastered when the event was already quite already plainly dead! MM

Don't get too concerned - its a windspeed map....well it was when I accessed it anyway! MM

Rain Today - I've been using it for about 5 months and I find it very accurate. The new feature detailing precipitation type also seems very good. In Tunbridge Wells we're just having a shower that is now nearing its end and has given us a new dusting. MM

This evenings snow added a further 5 cm, giving a total of 14cm lying snow. Quite impressive and more than I would have expected this time yesterday. MM

Yes Nick, the big flakes have now arrived in T Wells! MM

Just started snowing in Tunbridge Wells - nothing significant yet - but the main band is right behind! Kold, well done - you were right about the more easterly track yesterday! MM

Looking at the radar and the latest Met office NAE I suspect parts of Sussex and Kent may end up with a bit more than expected tonight. It is a fair bit different from even the current N24 forecasts and shows how difficult it is to be precise with snow forecasting. Those involved do have my sympathy! MM

Making the assumption that the cold is going to be difficult to shift I'll go for 1.6c. Here's hoping that 2010 is going to bring a greater degree of accuracy than my disastrous efforts in 2009! MM

I have not been getting very excited about snow today and as the temp has slowly risen to 3.9c it looks as if it will continue to be rain here for this particular event. We may possibly see a small amount of snow Wednesday night to Thursday morning, but any amounts will probably be on the low side. From Thursday onwards we are on the cusp of a cold spell lasting for possibly up to 14 days or even more. It looks, at the moment, to be on the drier side. However, as has been said often on this message board you need the cold to arrive first - any snow can then follow - and often does - although not necessarily immediately. SE cold spells often follow this pattern - it is the price we can pay for our location. The synoptical situation though remains quite outstanding for the UK as a whole and that can only be good for us. We have waited a long time for this. There are several possible evolutions and I have to agree with Tamara that the eventual development of a Scandi High to complement the Greenland high would be perfect and could put us in a "Narnia Nirvana". For now, however that just remains wishfull thinking! Anyone who is currently depressed and disappointed about the future possibilities are probably permanently in this mindset! Be patient - it is certainly going to be cold and once that happens - well, who knows. MM

Hi Boot, Here on the higher ground in Tun Wells what was pure rain now has a hit of sleetiness in it. The temp has also dropped down to 1.7c from 2.5c. Not expecting anything exciting but it is (at the moment) a bit colder than I anticipated! MM

Hi Boot, Yes I just measured the snow in the front drive here in T/Wells and it is 20 cms/8 ins as well - which is a bit more than my "guesstimate" earlier this morning! MM

Well, on the high ground in Tunbridge Wells, my plastic ran gauge in the middle of the lawn cannot be seen - and that is about 6" tall. It is still snowing quite hard. The radar suggests a bit more to come. MM

Funny you should mention this as, as if you look at the image below, you could suggest that there is some sort of NAD disruption taking place right now. It does look as if the Labrador current could possibly have "overrun" the NAD, temporarily disrupting its progress north. The strongly positive SST anomalies close to the NE coast of America and the lower(ing) mid-Atlantic anomalies stretching across to the south of the UK could support this view. I also remember reading (I cannot remember where) that one of the first signs of NAD disruption would be the appearance of positive SST anomalies to the west and north of Iceland. This would occur as "warm pooling" takes place at the usual sink points of the surface warm current, due to the disruption of the return current. Well, there are positive SST anonmalies developing now in this area - but, equally, these could just be due to local weather conditions in that area right now. I'm not suggesting I am right or I have uncovered a NAD shutdown! However it will interesting to see how this develops. If this is happening then I would expect the "warm pools" to strengthen for a period (I've no idea how long), before fading. MM

Teleconferencing, well that's no good, won't get many pictures on the front pages of newspapers or on 24 hr so called "news"! MM

I expect a year that results in much the same temperature outcome as 2009. The current moderate to strong El Nino should have an effect lasting through spring, but this should dissipate by the middle of the year. In the second half we could be looking at a neutral ENSO as we move towards the next La Nina. On the solar front I am still expecting the weakness of Cycle 24 to continue - so I am expecting the extended minimum to start having a small effect in respect of global temperatures. SSTs affect UK temperatures significantly and in reaching my estimate of 10.2c I am assuming no significant cooling of the North Atlantic, but there is any NAD disruption then things could look somewhat different, with a negative effect of circa 0.5c. (That is not two "guesses" by the way!) MM

My guesses cannot really get any worse! Let's go for 5.3c this month. MM

Yes they did. Just as important was the chairmanship of the debate by Andew Neil. He had obviuously done some prior preparation, asked some good questions and gave the two Professors time to make their own points. It does make a difference. I contrast this to the rather poor "Newsnight" effort, earlier in the week, with Mr Paxman! MM

Until the Arctic ice recovered again by 24 November to be above 2008, 2007....and now 2003! (according to IJIS). Not that this proves anything, it could all be different again in two weeks (but it is cold up there at the moment). MM

I like to think of myself as an “open minded” skeptic, although I recognise that I have a bias towards wanting winter cold and snow, which results in me being more receptive towards “cooling” arguments. It’s what I want to hear. However, I also accept that this (my) generation are the selfish wasters of the world’s resources and something needs to be done to mitigate this (global warming or not). I have always been interested in weather and climate and have even purchased a book or two on the subject (including Nigel Calder’s “The Weather Machine” – when I was hoping for a new ice age!). For me, it is the politicisation of Climate Change (the artist formerly known as Global Warming) that has really brought out my sceptical bias. In particular it is the incessant message that we only need to reduce CO2 emissions to save the planet – and to prove just how important it is we will tax you on this that and the other in order modify your behaviours. However, we will use these taxes raised to spend on anything we like! The only generous thought I have is that that, perhaps, politicians recognise that global warming may not be man-made, but a CO2 scare to get us to stop using the worlds resources quite so quickly is the only way to reduce consumption! Hence the development of a world governmental “machine” to continually re-enforce (and, where necessary, “adapt”) the message! However, what a lovely simple politician speak message, a=b, it could not be simpler! To add to this there a real conflict between what Politicians say and what they do. If they at least had any decency they would hypothecate any “green” taxes raised towards actions they could take now, such as: home insulation projects; Scandinavian insulation standards for new homes: solar energy panel uptake (as in Germany); hydro generation projects; anaerobic digesters; tougher recycling standards; an integrated and effective land transport system...and so on. But instead they use the situation as a cynical money raising exercise confirming to me that they are hypocrites of the highest order and, in time, they will lose support for the real prize as people see through this (I suspect this is already happening). I’m not a scientist (obviously - well I do have O level General Science!) but I try to look at the facts as far as my knowledge will let me. CO2 is obviously a greenhouse gas, but you would go a long way to find a weaker greenhouse gas. So, are there any other possible contributory causes for the late 20th century warming that just might be worth governments taking seriously? I could point to a number: SOI/ENSO; strong solar cycles; cloud cover levels, low volcanic activity, ozone depletion lowering the stratospheric temperature (and the reverse); bovine methane. I do not know whether any of these or all of them contribute – but I am prepared to look at them to see if there could be a contribution made by one or all – unlike many politicians. I also hate it when I am told “The science is settled” – my mind is still open (a bit). This post is too long already and there are many other comments I could include, but to summarise it all - “It’s the (world) government(s) what done it” – made me a real skeptic that is. MM