Shiny_Bottom_1
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Posts posted by Shiny_Bottom_1
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Actually, another point looking at most models, is the tendency for pressure location:
Low Pressure - West or North of the UK
High Pressure - East or South of the UK
At least...in the current projections.
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However....
If we take the models as they are showing, as many did yesterday, the promise of an easterly is much less now.
The GFS 00z is by no means awful looking at ground temps. Of course, snow potential is
but there is no blow torch situation.What I did notice yesterday, which throwed a little concern, was the High Pressure some of the models had around the Bartlet (I think this is the correct area) and Europe.
Still, GFS only going up to the end of the month really, with possibilities of change, we still then have plenty of time left.
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Had my meeting cancelled this morning, so at home for me
Some thaw already, and whilst it started to freeze last night, it's certainly not this morning.
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I think overall this cold spell has been satisfactory for most of us, BUT with the notable exception of Derby and Nottingham.
Indeed. We have about a 70% 'dusting' on the ground here. Nothing even measurable. Perhaps something to do with all the power stations around here
To be fair, it was snowing again around an hour a go, and with the surfaces frozen, it help with the dusting (would have been about 40% otherwise).
Its been good to see light snow for pretty much 12 hours or so today, but when you only get the above (where others from the same snow, less than 30 miles away get 1"+ of new snow) its more of a disappointment than a let down.
Heres to the next 3 day cold snap next week
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Still snowing here but still not settling. Nothing on the radar though, and potentially, still have the second front to come through (although it now looks like its weakened).
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Could be the second band that was on the UKMO 00z fax chart, although I (probably wrongly) presumed that was the ppn around n/w France (which actually could be the trough).
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Briefly...
Cold spell the best for the 6.5 years i've lived around this region, and can only remember a few that better it for where I lived at the time.
In terms of snow, its been ok, but have seen much snowier periods (in terms of depth), going back as early as Feb 2009.
No more than 1 inch of lying snow since the start of Dec09.
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Well, after a morning of light to moderate snow flake falls, it is now very light small flakes.
We may, on one or two surfaces, hit 7-8mm of snow, but with the current falls, the snow is turning to slush, and the slush is just melting.
Not really a let down, as it was meant to disappear before it hit here, but looking like those within about a 30 mile radius have done well again.
Nice to see my brother, down near bath, had a further 20cm overnight.
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Still no comments on the UKMO 00z fax chart on the second front approaching the UK. Looking at the radar, appears to be over n/w France at the moment, and looks (currently) quite intense.
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Ensembles do support a return to some duration of cold though as they take a massive dip next Wednesday to sub -5C
But as I said, not in terms of longevity (of course, some regional variation in this when looking at the ensembles).
The 06z is a difficult one to comment on, as most other major models only do (or publish) 00z and 12z results, so there is always going to be some speculation.
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Interesting to see that only Kold has noted the mid point onwards lack of support on the GFS.
So what do we do? Take the Op run with little support, and is commented on being the worst verified run of the day?
Are we not looking in to time periods that many (many many in fact) have said its pointless looking into?
I really am far from convinced at the moment, that a further cold spell, in terms of length to what we have just had, is more than an operational run.
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Still snowing lightly here, fresh 1-2cm i'd say.
Have you borrowed your snow shield to Mushymanrob? At its most, its still only 3-4mm here
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You can't be looking hard enough!
Getting heavier and a little more snowy in nature in NG7!Its been snowing here since about 07.30am...constantly.
But whilst its great, depths here have perhaps at best reached 2mm...i've had wider snow flakes than that before
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Can I just ask why, all of a sudden, we are posting charts from the GFS, when it has been ridiculed by so many people about its accuracy...especially the 06z!
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Anybody noticed the second occluded front making its way behind the first front (UKMO Fax Chart 00z), over the west/central midlands by tomorrow morning?
Also, a trough following behind the second front, as it moves north/north-east.
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Exactly.
Snow still fairly small flakes (but not rubbish grains by any means) and is getting heavier. Starting to drift up walls now!
Not being funny, but if this carries on for a 3-6 hour period, we could end up with our best snow of the winter (depth wise) :unsure:
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Have fine snow here...that small polystyrene type.
Its covering the ground, so not complaining.
Only problem is, we seem to have sprung a leak in my office downstairs :lol:
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Do Robins count
We've had a few this winter, but haven't seen any, I think, since we moved in 4.5 years a go.
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The radar suggests the band is starting to fragment though.
Indeed. It will be the dual funded Derby-Notts Snow Shield.
It does look like some fragmantation, but not sure if this is temporary or a permanent feature of the front of this band.
No snow here, but ground is 'damp'.
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Still not snowing in Upton which is about 6 miles east of Malvern
But is it raining? I'd much rather have cold and dry and cold and damp.
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You forgot a new flock of Grebes SC.
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Well, only just got in from London, and looking at the band compared to when I left about 6pm...
...Whilst the heaviest of the ppn has gone (might come back
), the band is still quite clear, and much wider than before. So, it may have lost its heaviest intensity, it has by no means 'broken up'.
I'm afraid its another 'lamp post' night (although not for me...i'll be in bed very very shortly)
PS1 - Bristol (I thought) is but a few miles from the sea...forecasts were for sleet/rain
PS2 - Temp at both 05.30 and 21.00 for here was 1.0oC at both times
Leicester/South Derbyshire folk - You would be gutted to know that in s/e London (London City Airport way) they still have greater depths of snow, then we got in total
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The UKMO 06z fax chart really slows down the front in comparison to the 00z. Quite surprised, but looks perhaps in alignment with other 00z models.
BTW - CFS looking a little brighter on Sundays 00z run towards the end of the month
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Not really Conor. A slightly more eastern track, yes, but it doesn't miss us. Overall, no worse than the 12z. However, the other 12z models do not support this, and there may be a possibility there the ensembles will show (for example, London) being an outlier.
I'd wait, but even at this time frame, nothing is set in stone yet.
but there is no blow torch situation.
Getting heavier and a little more snowy in nature in NG7!
), the band is still quite clear, and much wider than before. 
General Model Output Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
But this is the problem. Why believe last nights 18z, and not the earlier 00z?
It's all a bit chicken and egg really.
But its the model discussion, and as it stands, the 00z runs have gone against the easterly.
The other issue is looking at GFS outputs for things like the vortex and jet stream movement. Its all interlinked on the output, so to say the jet pattern has changed, and so has the pressure position/movement, is, well...quite obvious.
Thats why I like the posts which show output of these things outside of the general concensus of model output...it helps back up the points on the models.