Shiny_Bottom_1
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Posts posted by Shiny_Bottom_1
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there no sign of any snow coming our way, then you watch BBC weather this evening on there they saying the band going to fizzle out
but on the gfs maps they saying the battle Field further north!!!
I would have caution with the GFS ppn charts, even at this range. I've said before, they have been quite inaccurate, however, typically its when the Op run (which is used quite often when posting the maps) has been somewhat higher than most ensembles.
Whilst I still would stick more with the likes of the BBC TV and the METO charts at this range, I would say the GEFS 12z op does not seem to be an outlier nor one the 'higher' solutions for ppn amounts. Certainly will be interesting.
One change on the UKMO Fax chart for the 12z, is that the front is not showing as a decaying front. I still wouldn't expect anything massive for the west midlands, north eastwards, and also wouldn't guarantee snow (although sleet is perhaps the worst solution away from the coasts), but the s/w and south wales could take a hammering.
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Is it just here, or are the ppn ensembles for Derbyshire on the GEFS not working (850's etc seem to work ok)?
Cheers.
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Not entirely true- the ECMWF showed a similar synoptic evolution this morning, but had sent a colder pool of upper air across from the east, giving us a pretty cold-looking easterly with sunshine & snow showers likely. GFS's version is much more modified and would not give widespread snowfalls. UKMO's T+144 chart also shows a similar trend- the Atlantic looks strong but that low over Britain, when shown on model outputs, has a tendency to be progged to slip SE allowing easterlies in.
Hi Ian.
Sorry. Was talking about events T+36, rather than T+144.
12z's heavier snow, at least from what I read (but down to memory) was not supported this morning - 00z UKMO showing the front decaying.
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Shouldn't be a problem around here - not much snow to melt.
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I would really hold up on the jumpings of joy on the GFS 12z ppn until the ensembles have come out. Over the last 7-10 days, the ppn forecasts by the op run have quite often been much higher than the other members (depending on the date and the location) at this range (and even lower).
Its not really in line with the other models on the current output, so certainly worth waiting longer.
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It does, at first thoughts, look like the ppn will work its way more up the West Side of the Midlands, and decaying as the front moves over towards the central and east side of the midlands.
I wouldnt rule out any ppn making its way across, but ppn intensity will help with the showers to be more wintry.
But, we've seen it (i.e. Sunday) when the front weakens and decays, and we are left with little but flurries. However, Sunday was a warm front (not that this makes much difference in terms of decay), where tomorrow/Wednesday is an occluded front, so at least less chance of a warm up.
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Not sure where that chart is from Andy, but I guess similar at that time to where i'm looking, but as it moves East, it decays further. The T+60 chart I looked at showed lower ppn as the front 'kinda' moves through.
Certainly another knife edge situation for us. Fingers crossed it gets upgraded, but based on the last 24-36 horus of weather for here, my concern is it being more sleety.
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Well, was snowing very lightly when I left here this morning, but since coming home, no 'dustings' apparent. Although to be fair, even with all the moisture falling from the sky, there doesnt seem to be any further thaw today.
Anyway, around lunch time, light snow from Stoke to Derby on the A50. Heavier at Stoke, and more sleety (and lighter) in Derby.
Temps ranged from 1-1.5oC, although around Holmes Chapel on the M6 (jnctn 18), it was 2.5oC.
Regarding Tuesday, well looking at the UKMO Fax Chart for tomorrow, the front decays as it hits the West Midlands. No update (that I could find) on the 06z, so a wait for the 12z later.
And just to add...
1. Uttoxeter to Derby has similar amounts of lying snow visible (but getting gradually less towards Derby)
2. Uttoxeter to Stoke, and Stoke to around junction 18 of the M6 had similar lying snow levels
3. A53 between Leek and Buxton closed, with police reporting snow drifts up to 8-10ft.
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Not sure if we had any snow after 10pm last night, but a little more of a thaw than when I went to bed.
Went outside abotu 9.30pm, and had a heavy snow flurry, which was instantly starting to stick (flakes were landing on wet surfaces, and whilst became translucent, the structure was clearly visible). However, right at the end of the shower, it turned to drizzle.
Just off on my way up to Warrington now, so will be interesting. Looks like i'm driving in the dry slot, and will probably miss the ppn potential over Derby this morning.
With regards to Tuesday...who knows. We had good conditions here yesterday, but still had a thaw and no accumulations. I know that there was talk of there being milder air, but I still can't see it. Just one of those unfortunate situations. So Tuesday...could be fortunate, might be unfortunate. Potentially, its possible, but its also marginal.
Moving forwards in the week. Generally, ground temps look like remaing around 1-2oC at max (currently 1oC here), with a potential trend for these to creep up a little to around 4-5oC moving towards the weekend/early next week.
High pressure to our east is never far away. Fingers crossed that it starts to make in roads. But, being the 11th of Jan, the timespan for another cold spell or period of wintry weather is a plenty
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Well there's a lot of ppn still moving westwards from Holland, but looking at the latest BBC24 forecast, this looks like moving more northwards towards the night, hitting places such as Manchester.
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Surely we must remember, if you followed the BBC Weather forecasts, each hour, over the last 24 hours, actually, they have got it right.
Are they not allowed to reduce the risk of snow by updating their forecasts?
Anyway, snow showers are becoming more frequent and heavier in nature here.
Thaw has set in, but we are still around 80% coverage, although this is now very little in terms of depth.
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Seems like quite a disappointing day for many.
The showers coming from the south never materialised (guess the front never really had any decent ppn in?).
What is confusing watching the BBC forecast earlier, was the forecast for 'snow flurries' but 'blizzards later.
I think if the thaw hadn't started, it would have been less disappointing. But a thaw with the snow not materialising as forecast as late as last night, is perhaps the biggest down side.
The thing is, we've had various light flurries (although looking a little sleety at the moment), but with the ground wet/thaw on, its not going to settle unless it becomes more prolonged and heavier.
To top it off, all the (decent) showers coming from the East appear to be moving towards our North.
Just a comment on the warnings. Todays was updated today, so more up to date, but the warnings out for tomorrow are still existing from yesterday. So perhaps see these warnings come down as well...perhaps.
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Just my view using the UKMO Fax Charts this morning.
Pretty similar to yesterdays 12z. The front was never really due to reach us until around midday.
Have to admit that flurries are much lower than expected for this region. I really thought that we would have had at least some form of showers pepping up by now. But, lets give it a few hours before judging.
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Heavy snow
Where d'at come from Don't think we had any more since stopping about 8-9pm last night, but those showers moving inland (so far) look fantastic. They really have been penetrating very well inland, and it is currently slightly snowing here, Wasn't expecting this this morning.
Interesting that Sky News have a ticker saying (along the lines of, but not exactly) "More snow expected over the next few days for the midlands"
But then they had up until about Christmas the ticker story on the live leaders debate. That news was so old, that the snow/midlands ticker story is probably from Feb09!
Just woke up to a lovely fresh covering of Snow in Leicestershire and the radar shows plenty more showers to come . My only concern is the Met office are playing down SUN/MON and I can not think why as the setup looks perfect.
I think they did this for the Midlands Tuesday event, took down the warnings, and only put them up x hours before the event. Could quite likely be flash warnings as they monitor its movement and intensity as it moves north.
Ohhh...snows stopped too.
Edit - Major difference on the UKMO on todays 00z compared to yesterdays 12z.
The major band tomorrow (which BTW now has a trough moving over the s/w) now looks like stalling over the English Channel. If the 00z is to be believed, Monday looks much more promising for the Midlands.
However, we are still >T+24 for the event (here). It wasn't even meant to snow here today, on last nights forecasts, so shows how very quickly these things can change.
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Is this chart really that bad:
It comes from the South, so is surely going to effect most of us.
METO website, for Derby at least, going for light snow Sunday day, Sunday night and Monday day.
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Well, we've had about 2 hours of light snow, and in total, has given us a fresh (and immeasurable) dusting.
But...every second dusting counts
Should be stopping soon. Reckon the BBC might have this on the head. Southern part of this band will get lighter, but still remain worthwhile, whilst the northern part of the band may take a more ese direction.
Stoke should do ok out of this...maybe even Telford might see something
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Dave - Have a look at the JMA
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I read a post on here saying the Midlands will miss Sundays snow. Well despite the Met O warnings the opposite is true based on the models I see.
The UKMO/GFS both indicate the snow for this region as does the latest Fax chart.
I can't post the links due to problems accessing the website. However trust me when I say the front is further N than indicated this morning.
Actually viewing the UKMO 12z (have a look at weatheronline Dave), by midday on Sunday, the front is across the country, lets say, approximately Manchester to Hull.
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Very light snow falling here now.
Just seen Mr Avery on BBC24...snow potential still for most of the Midlands, but looking like the main band not pushing too far in land, and the s/e of the UK getting much more of a pasting than originally thought. Time for this to change though, as it has done since this morning.
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You have got to be kidding me?!
NO SNOW in Ikeston!
You should go to Ikleston Coop Travel, because "Ilkeston Coop Travel...It always gets you there"
check out the gap over my house
Yep...thats expanding just before it gets to my house.
Sorry
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For trend spotters, the following should be watched for as they are now recurring on GFS operationals and are a good guide to what we might expect.
On Tuesday of next week, an area of LP attacking into the SW but making very minor inroads and dropping snow along a to-be-determined line en route.
This is pushed through under cutting the sagging Scandi HP which holds on over S Norway/Sweden at 1025-1030mb propped by the sliding LPs
The LP pushing through drags an Easterly or ESE flow back across us and -5s or thereabouts drop back in
Azores High throws up a tenative ridge to the West of Ireland which may be of future benefit
Deeper FI - signs of a renewed HP rise to the NE and perhaps the NW
At best for 'milder' weather the GFS suggests the South coast may struggle up to around average for a day or two next week as the LP slide under us
Very much in line with my thoughts from this morning SM.
HAven't seen the 12z ensembles, but a cold weather continuing looks like a good bet at the moment.
When looking at the charts, its quite clear how cold much of Europe is, including France, so even a flow from this direction looks chilly.
seriously stop looking at the charts after +168 they are pointless stupid infact
Come on. Model discussion. Models go out to T+384, so people are entitled to post such things.
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*All Together Now*
Whats a hot spot, Notts?
Don't you love Michael Barrymore?
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With its current track you're looking like a direct hit, definately a NE'ly strong component driving it further inland, and up and over Derby.
I thought i'd correct your post
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Well, I think i've now found the most snowless location in the Midlands....Kettering!
Whilst Northants (South) and Leicester (North) have had varied amounts from about 2-3" as a min, apparantly Kettering has....1/4"!
Nobodies been on here from Kettering have they? They are probably outside doing a snow dance as we speak
Looks like Nottingham is going to get a direct hit from these showers - they seem to be really beefing up now.
Nah...they're moving towards Derby
Where d'at come from 
Midlands Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
:lol: Was expecting a delivery today from Parcelforce. T'was at Nottingham depot on Saturday, and as the delivery hadn't arrived today as planned, I tracked it.
Apparantley it couldn't be delivered due to 'Adverse Weather Conditions'....urrrmmmm....when did snizzle become adverse weather conditions :lol: