[General Model Output Discussion]

when even NOAA in the USA are slating it's operational runs and going mainly with the ecm and its ensembles.

Hi Nick.

Didnt they favour the GFS Ensemble mean though?

This perhaps is the key point to look at, rather than the operational.

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Thought it would be worth adding.

Our snow cover has thawed between 15-50%, depending on surface material and exposure to sun.

However, i've just been out to our back garden, which is now 100% in the shade, and the soft crunch of the snow has turned to a hard crunch of ice.

It must be getting seriously cold oustide now (after a slight warm up which experienced similar conditions to here), and tonight/tomorrow morning will be certainly tricky.

[General Model Output Discussion]

I think in fairness to Mushy, it is a point I would concur with.

The NOAA picked up on using the mean of the GFS, rather than the operational run.

However, if you at Derbyshire, the mean still looks ok until about the 17th, perhaps the 19th in terms of 850's. If the op run dropped, so would the mean, being one of the milder solutions.

The operational is a fantastic run, and with some support from other GFS members, looks like there is also some support from the ECM in terms of T2M temps.

However, the ECM ensembles also back up some increase in the 850's, with generally a split in how this is going to develop from mid-week next week.

Two questions:

1. On the ECM ensembles posted, for which location is this?

2. Does anybody have access to the ECM 00z 850 ensembles?

Is a warming of the 850's nailed? No. But in the same breath, neither is continuation of cold.

But what we do have, is model disagreement, which in terms of the time frame, is still open to much changes and possibilities.

Interesting that the 06z GFS mean is perhaps better than the 00z, the increase in 850's (again for Derbyshire) is brought in nearly a day early.

Nobody is looking for a breakdown, but I am not 100% convinced in terms of mid to long term patterns, the GFS is useless and should be discounted.

Really, details of mid-week next week will be clearer (but still not set up in good confidence) by the weekend.

Either way, it does not look like becoming mild in any time frame (GFS Op always goes higher than is realistic when it hits its lower res).

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

really?? I thought Derby had more than us cuz of last night snow! How much do you have?

:lol: As Nick says...an inch. However, the highest piles are now nearly down to 1/2 an inch.

Parts of Derbyshire did well, but as someone said yesterday, its about 50 miles long, the the n/w quadrant had the heavy snow yesterday morning.

I agree about not complaining though. It could have been worse.

But whats funniest, is people complaining they only got 2-3"...there are places far worse than that.

Northants folk...remember you have also had much better snow around Christmas which was better than some of us midlanders have.

The phenominal thing is the cold. It really is long lasting.

...and we now have sunshine I'm going outside to warm up :lol:

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Nottingham got a whopping 1.5" of snow. Typical.

Well, thats 50% more than here.

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Bizarrely the temperature is now starting to plummet slightly! Down 0.3c in half an hour, -0.6c now so no danger of any melting.

Not sure of the temp here Nick, but lets just say, we do have a partial thaw going on.

[General Model Output Discussion]

Yep. In terms of ground temps, things look positive to remain on the cold side.

However, projections are around the 13th for the 850's to increase around the 13th, with +/-2 days marginality for the country.

This will decrease the snow risk, as the uppers become too warm to support this.

Still, its around a week away, things can change, and have done in the past.

Interesting though, whilst the Op run has gone for various scenarios over the last 5 days or so, the GFS Mean run has been quite consitant with the introduction of warmer (but not warm, just more average) 850's. You can see why the NOAA favoured this solution.

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Well, just had a check of the charts over the next, well, as far as runs go.

Generally, it is looking to become drier, however, the same caution should be applied over the last 2 weeks. Things can generally develop.

Looking as well to remain on ground level, cold, however, 850's start to remove the snow possibility around the 13th for the Midlands. GFS has been quite progressive in bringing in >-5oC 850's, and looks like most models are starting to agree on this, with maybe a +/- 2 days margin.

Deos this mean the end to the cold spell? Well, in terms of snowfall, there is a decreasing risk as we get to mid-week next week, but temperatures look like becoming surpressed. As it looks mainly dry, rain is unlikely to cause any speed up in a thaw, but increasing dew points may aid this.

However, we are still talking 6-7 days away, and there is always a chance of a turnaround to colder conditions.

Today looks like becoming drier during the day, but places such as the West Midlands and more southern parts of the East Midlands look like having some further snowfall.

Overall, who knows. Indications are there for a slight change, but who's for a re-load

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Well, starting to stop here now, so might be it for the day. But hey...its been good.

Whilst most places have seen their best snow for quite some time, here, it has not been as deep as Feb09.

However, in terms of a cold spell, one of the best for the last 10-15 years for me.

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

For all those who will enjoy a day off work/snow, please bare some thoughts to the poor sods who are home based, and if they had meetings...would still work from home because of any cancellations.

Yep. I shall mostly be staring at the beautiful snow, whilst looking outside wishing I could play

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Well, snow ended up turning light with small flakes again yesterday evening, went to bed with about 1-2cm of lying snow.

At 6am, there was a partial thaw on some surfaces (Cars, roofs (mainly due to heating), et al) - probably also that there was cloud cover with no snowfall.

6.30am - started snowing lightly with small flakes

7.30am - started snowing moderately with mid size flakes

8.00am - intermitant light to moderate snow, with intermitant small to mid size flakes

Still snowing know, but expect it to stop soon. No real further depths added to last night.

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Wow! Has anyone seen that warm sector develop over the midlands just before the snow arrives <_<

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Radar says 'NO'...Lampost says 'Yes'

Really strange night I think coming up. Really difficult to say how far north this ppn is going to go. 'Segments' of this band look like they have already parts of Leicestershire (perhaps even Leicester).

Could it go futher north...yes in my opinion. However, the difficulty is now that it is starting to pivot. However, if the low pushes further north, there appears to be some good ppn on the eastern side which may carry through.

Difficult. Very difficult.

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

PUT YOUR LOCATIONS ON EVERY POST.

THANKS

Or as mentioned, put it in your profile information.

As I think profile viewing is disabled at the moment, here is one way of doing it:

1. Go to the top of the screen, and in the top right hand corner, you will see a bluey/grey box with your username. Click on this, then in the drop down menu, click on

my settings.

2. On the tabs at the top of the screen, click on 'Profile'

3. Scroll down, I think to about 2/3rds of the way, and there is a box where you can enter your location.

4. Save changes

This will probably get lost in all the posts, but drop me a PM if you need any help.

Chris

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

well good evening everyone........................here in south derbyshire, swadlincote, near burton to be precise we have had little or no snow all day...i cant understand!

what do you all think my chances are for tonight?

thanks

What sort of depth are you at now? We are only at junction 3 of the A50...about 1-2cm and still snowing (lightly).

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Well, after the snow started about 4.30pm, and we had about a 45 minute of moderate snow, dumping around 1cm during this period.

With the light ppn, which has continued before and afterwards (and still now) we have generally between 1-2cm. However, the light ppn is this really fine snow, where cover and depth takes quite a while to build.

Interesting note on the band down south. Progression is quick, either not dumping as much as planned, or possibly (or more hopefully) moving further north.

Overall, worth the wait for here. Would have been cool to have had the heavier and more prolonged showers, but you can't win all the time.

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Well i'm woo'ing for both bands to join and become stationery over South Derbyshire and Leicestershire...

Come on Folks "Wooooooo...." "Wooooooo..."

OK...i'm becoming officially a little nutty tonight.

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Well, perhaps a brave (or stupid call), but for the 'Snowless Triangle' commonly known as South and Central Derbyshire, South and Central Notts, and Central and North Leics (I might even include North Warks in this), I am stuggling to see us getting any heavy ppn.

The band up North looks like moving more west with the band to the south not making it this far north.

I may be pesimisstic about this, but just see is stuck in a relatively snowless movement, and when the low starts moving north, it doesn't quite make it.

*Goes searching to see if the clever Polar Continental is about*

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Hi Nabraxas.

A difficult one to predict.

Looking ok, but not brilliant. However, it is by no means doing what it was meant to do this morning, so who knows.

Looks like moving more southerly than earlier, so always a good sign (and intensity looks ok still).

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

I can't see where all this projected snow is going to come from for us here in North Warks - the front to the north of us seems to be staying put and the south-west stuff doesn't seem to be going north. There's a big band of nothing heading straight for us by the look of it. Hope it all beefs up soon - I want some good deep snow to play in by the morning.

This is why nowcasting is quite important in these situations. The forecast, even as this morning, was for snow in Derby and for that band to move south.

The first never materialised, and the second is hanging in the balance at the moment.

So, if it doesn't happen the way it was forecast just hours before the event, who knows what is going to happen later.

Snowing lightly here now with a slight thaw taking place. Hopefully, I'll get more heavy snowfall tonight!

Edit: Just been looking over some of my recording and man, did I capture some heavy snowfall! A good start to the year so far. But I really want to see some big thunderstorms this year!

You don't want much, do ya

[The Whining Thread]

Conor...it really is a nowcast situation, and I would still say that the exact movement and intensity of any showers for, really, the rest of the week, are still uncertain.

Like yourself, we were predicted snow, even during last night. So far...well..its no more than 1mm on the 75% coverage we have.

Give your chin up...it could have been rain

[Need Help On The Site/forum?]

Any chance some de-icer could be sprayed on to the GEFS Ensembles? Seems to have frozen on the 00z

BTW - Nice to see the online record break again, and the new server just in time

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Listening to the local radio station today just in case (Toddler SB1 is at nursery), and just heard that a school within 5 miles of here has closed.

Lets just say that my deepest snow is quite literally 2mm, but I still only have about a 75% coverage, with most being less than 1mm.

However, if that band t'up north does move down, it could get worse.

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Oooooooo....Moderate snow now, with mid size flakes...someone let all the chickens in, and there are feathers everywhere.

[General Model Output Discussion]

I disagree.

During the cold spell last Feb I found on a few occasions the Met O disagreed with the GFS charts and the GFS was proved correct. I would never go against the GFS precip charts from 0+ to +48.

As i've said in the regional thread this will come down to nowcasting.

At the moment though Dave, I would go against the GFS. The Op run appears to always be at the higher end of the ppn quantities, and for today (based yesterday) it was an outlier for some areas further east.

I agree about not discounting it, as your last reason is the exact way forecasting needs to be at the moment.