summer blizzard

Settling?

So long as this front carries on pivoting then i think that Hull and York will begin to get hammered in the next few hours as the showers just stream over them.

Reports from Leicester of 15cm and they look like there only half way through. I fear i'm getting too excited.

No if you look a little south west of Leeds you see a light strand which is producing a few flurries however if you look directly to our south (Nottingham/Sheffield) you see the main batch is moving north as the front is trying to level itself out.

We say impossible to predict but the thing is that the NAE had this for the past 36 hours, we just all ignored it thinking the GFS/Met Office would be right in showers getting us. Meanwhile the GFS shows 1mm of snow for me between 3-6 as i look south on the radar and see reports of an inch per hour.

At my parents there were a completely frozen 6cm before yesterday (i'd wager a good inch fell) and so i'm probably expecting to measure in the 10-15cm range when i visit on Sunday. http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/home/maps?bg=0 Zoom in and watch the radar, the NAE has being bang on the general movement even if a few hours slow.

I'd say that somewhere between York and Scarborough will be hit hard tonight, it looks like there's a linkage between the two and so this area probably won'y see any let up.

Just popped into the East Midlands thread for the area around Nottingham (thats roughly what will hit west Yorkshire) and reports are very good as to the intensity and accumulation.

I'm in Leeds and it looks like we are going to get what you guys Nottingham have so any reports as to the snow will be great.

It's not decaying yet and several hours of moderate to heavy snow if it occurs will be better than 10 minutes of varying amounts.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/18/basis12/ukuk/prty/13011818_1812.gif NAE12z is out and still shows the merger - 18:00 pretty much as we are now. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/18/basis12/ukuk/prty/13011900_1812.gif Still showing heavy snow - 00:00.

On the subject of Sheffield the main batch has now hit Chesterfield so we need a report from there, Sheffield should be hit anytime. Get what you can out of it, that is also the crappier strand.

Thats just the crappy bit, you want the heavy batch an hour behind.

Looks fine to me west of Stoke, where it looks weak is North of Stoke as it really looks like it can't handle the Pennines.

It may be a little out on timing but the NAE looks to have forecast the frontal movement perfectly in recent days.

It does look like they are connecting north of East Anglia so its possible as the front pivots and levels out with a more easterly wind that this link so to speak will keep the showers alive overnight.

The cold air in place and high pressure have made the front stall pretty much however within the front we see that because it is angled NW/SE the western part of the front has hit the Pennines and just failed to jump them however in the past few hours what we have seen is the front begin to try and level out and so we have precipitation surging from the flat East Midlands northward. At any rate the radar assures me that the GFS output (still showing just 3 hours of very light snowfall now) will be an epic fail.

whilst heavier falls are expected across southern, central and western areas, with 10-15 cm or more possible in some areas.

What you seem to be getting is a stray outer edge to the front as it does'nt seem to be able to jump the Pennines however looking at the radar you will get the main batch in an hour or so.

Those of you in Sheffield, Doncaster, Barnsley and Rotherham should prepare to leave work or pick up the kids now, moderate to heavy snow is inbound within the hour. I'm inclined to say that the earlier forecast for LBA will now be the correct one with moderate to heavy snow, the only change is timing.

Adam. Great news is that i am now certain - snow is inbound from the main front and it does not look like breaking up yet. Look at the radar below, zoom in and look between Nottingham and Leeds, that is the direction its coming from. http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/home/maps?bg=0 Model runs are fickle so i really have no clue however with the NAE looking good on its final frame i'm inclined to be positive.

I think a few people should remain calm because there's a bit too much pessimism. Firstly we should note that Ian Ferguson's forecast last night showed snow arriving over our region between 12-3, as i look to the south i see very dark cloud and we have had reports of light snow as north as Huddersfield (although it looks to be struggling to breach the Pennines on radar) and to top that off the front is now aiding vorcity over the north sea with some hefty showers. Now i think its a given that the 12-3 prediction looks to be wrong however the NAE does show moderate to heavy snowfall over our region by midnight and still there at 06:00 as the front moves north and seems to combine with the shower activity off the coast (if anything it looks to me like everything is 6 hours early). We see this in the charts below.. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/18/basis06/ukuk/prty/13011818_1806.gif Pretty much the picture now but the forecast is for 18:00. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/18/basis06/ukuk/prty/13011900_1806.gif It's almost like the stuff over London just surges north and combines with the showers. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/18/basis06/ukuk/prty/13011906_1806.gif Still giving the goods for Yorkshire at 06:00. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/18/basis06/ukuk/prty/13012006_1806.gif Snow to the SE approaching (needs to drift west if its for us though) on Sunday.

It will be interesting to see whether fronts over the west Midlands can beat shower/troughs over the north east given that in December 2010 Northumberland had over 1 meter.

If you zoom in over the last hour the greens are approaching again.

I'm not sure we can call them showers looking at them (too widespread). It looks to me like we get a similar feature to the one we have now.