summer blizzard

Geronimo......... Warmer than average March? Odds may be increasing!

For the past week the GFS has said wall to wall sunshine this afternoon.. it's just stopped raining!

It was a setup that was pretty dominant from Nov 04 to mid Feb 05 (evolved into an easterly), the high just kind of sat to the south west occasionally ridging north. Personally i wouldn't expect anything more than frost from it, pressure is fairly high and the northerly component will promote the wishbone effect. Also of note is that it does reach 1045mb so its pretty strong.

Looks like the end of the week should see high pressure close to the south west which i suggest may not be bad for us in Yorkshire because the Pennines should deal with some of the cloud and so i'd expect spells of sunshine and a reasonable 5-10C.

Good to see good run to run consistency between the 18z and 0z in the high resolution time-frame. Looks like Feb 2nd could be a good snow opportunity for England.

If we can get a correction to 3.4C that will do me.

Speaking for Leeds i think that this winter will be remembered pretty well, at my parents we are now going into day 15 of partial snow cover. With that being said the last five winters have featured notable cold spells with snow cover so i may be easy to please (09 - 16 days, 10 - 31 days, Dec 10 - 25 days, 12 - 8 days, 13 - 15> days).

Okay so we don't really know what the ENSO will do this summer but based on increasingly westerlies and warm sub-surface temperatures to the west i think we will see an ENSO neutral-weak El Nino type setup along with a positive QBO so taking the summer season with years matching these we get... qbo 1980 1985 1990 1995 1997 1999 2002 2004 2006 2008 MEI 1951 1953 1958 1969 1976 1977 1979 1980 1986 1990 1994 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2009 2012 A mixed bag but we know that 1990 and 2006 were notable in July and with 1976, 2003 and 1995 as weaker analogues that certainly springs my ears up, though there are probably some horror shows in there too.

2008 is certainly a probable QBO match however so are many others that were warmer, i shall have a look through the data.

I'd note that stratospheric temperatures at 10hpa are already plunging so the prospect of a warmer than average March in my opinion is high.

Some less rosy news with a large disparity between the upper and mid stratosphere taking place.

GP, whilst not strictly strat related i was curious whether such westerly bursts are likely to arrest the development of the cold sea surface temperature anomolies in the Pacific and potentially lead us towards a weak El Nino through the coming months?

It is the likely outcome in my opinion given the SSW which favours Atlantic High's but the position of the vortex which is still strong to the west. It was actually a dominant pattern from November through to Mid-January 2005 so it can stick around but the advantage is that it is a very dry pattern and the later in the season we get the sunnier it may be. Given that stratospheric temperatures are still well above average i wouldn't be surprised to see a retrogression either.

It's likely because western Scotland is commonly in a showery maritime flow and in late spring an easterly flow..

I recall actually that March 2011 also had a large diurnal range and a good sunny spell reaching 19C in Yorkshire, March 2010 was also pretty sunny as well.

Sadly i think Newcastle probably beat us due to the showers early in the week.

There was a week in March where we had to wait until between 12-3 for the cloud to burn but it was amazing because it basically happened in the space of an hour. It really was a stupidly sunny March.

You have a jumper spare for the evening, it's not coat worthy though unless your going to be out into the wee hours.

I recall the warm spell discussion thread featuring members complaining that it was cloudy and the like ramming it down everybody's throats that we shouldn't count this as a warm spell. Meanwhile i was sat in Millennium Square enjoying the sun.

Is the bin the new fall? I always measure on the bin or a paving stone.

Go stick the ruler in the path and get us a measurement.

Looks like fog now.

I visited my parents earlier and measured 16cm (possibly some melt since Monday) so if it can get over 23cm it will become the second most productive cold spell on record.

In the short term its interesting to note that Morroco is going to get some home grown heat in 6 days with the +15C isotherm appearing. In the longer term i like the 18z, it reflects the likely outcome i've felt of high pressure dominant to the west .

As there's no colour what are you showing?