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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. summer blizzard
    I recall being in year 7 or 8 at the time with a Bring and Buy Sale that evening however in the day or so leading upto it i'd been watching the satellite pictures and forecasts on the Sky News red button, i recall it being extremely wet and i honestly don't believe i've ever felt such strong winds. Even better, it turned to snow the following morning as the hook clipped us. I'd wager that mainland England has not had a stronger storm since.
  2. summer blizzard
    QBO (Neutral-Negative) 2004 1997 1990 MEI (Neutral-Positive - no change) 2007 2005 2004 1994 1993 1991 1990 1979 1978 1977 1970 1969 1964 1959 1952 PDO (Neutral-Negative) 1999 1980 1967 1963 GLAMM (Neutral-Positive) 1986 1960 December-January 2004 1990 Not too bad.
  3. summer blizzard
    Yes and my comments yesterday referred to the period upto the 21st but that is still beyond the day 5 difference that was present yesterday (it was day 6 but obviously a day) so in the high resolution timeframe its not really surrendered much ground.
  4. summer blizzard
    GFS6z (like previous runs) suggests that we will go to at least day 9 with not a drop of rain. Looks lovely and sunny and though.
  5. summer blizzard
    GF0zS stands resolute in the face of aggression.
  6. summer blizzard
    If we go by technical definition then how many days do we go without rain before it's officially a drought. Multiple GFS runs have gone over a week now.
  7. summer blizzard
  8. summer blizzard
    It's you. It's angled almost W-E (just a tinge of an angle).
  9. summer blizzard
    That's a pretty poor example though. When it comes to the actual timing or location of a front there's a good margin of error and i pretty much ignore most non-met stuff. This is a much more simple "where will the high end up" and whilst complicated to a degree it is'nt nearly as complex as that setup.
  10. summer blizzard
    Indeed. Do you have the ECWMF ensemble spread? The mean may be in agreement with the operational but there could well be a bigger spread on the up and downside?
  11. summer blizzard
    There will no doubt be some GFS runs with a higher ensemble spread but in 6-8 days (19th-21st) i will put a virtual pound on the isotherm being above 0C.
  12. summer blizzard
    I'm really not sure how the cold front tonight is supposed to hang around, it looks pretty thin.
  13. summer blizzard
    It's possible but with not a single stray run it is in my opinion unlikely, i disagree on the whole they are often great indicators. Meant 'now', have edited.
  14. summer blizzard
    Having observed the models over several days i'm now ready to state that i am backing the GFS. Ensembles have moved into excellent agreement is my primary reason.
  15. summer blizzard
    There's nowhere near enough wind and its nowhere near heavy enough. .............. Small flakes but heavy.
  16. summer blizzard
    Personally i think the GFS12z is a pretty good run. Rather than being a trend towards a cold outbreak the clear trend in recent days has been for higher than average pressure over the UK with any real cold being well out. I suspect many people are looking with rose tinted glasses and whilst it may well evolve into a cold spell i for one am looking forward towards sunshine and dryness.
  17. summer blizzard
    They were both dry though Autumn 2011 and Spring 2010 weren't massively similar in temperature. If you know the link to that site where you put the years in and produce monthly maps (GP and the like use it all the time, noaa or cpc or something) then i can plot it.
  18. summer blizzard
    Warmest PDO value since May 2010. Weakest -QBO value since November 2011.
  19. summer blizzard
    A lovely spell of weather forecast by the GFS18z once Wednesday is done with, sunny and dry with temperatures in Leeds City Center pushing 10C (urban heat effect).
  20. summer blizzard
    I'd still expect freezing rain were that the case. The only potential analogue i can think of would be 27th December 2010 which saw temperatures below freezing and heavy rain but that was an all rain event, not a snow to rain.
  21. summer blizzard
    Strange one on Wednesday, temperature forecast to remain below 0C throughout but forecast to be snow to rain.
  22. summer blizzard
    The bit we have now is making terribly slow progress and so won't be here for hours and won't produce much anyway. The band we want is over Wales.
  23. summer blizzard
    The monster storm was late October 2000.
  24. summer blizzard
    Worcester just about to see the sun, for the higher ground with the massive totals it's pretty much over now. Northbourugh and Worcester at 28 inches, pretty much final totals. Boston still snowing at 21 inches, will probably break the 2 foot mark.
  25. summer blizzard
    Coming close to the back end of the front now.
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