summer blizzard

Interestingly i've just being looking at hot months and their frequency since 1700. If we define a hot month as 16C+ in June and 18C+ in July and August then with 31 full decades the average frequency for June and July is actually only 0.7 per decade or to put another way over a 30 year period if you only had 2 hot summer months by this definition then you would essentially be around average, to contrast this between 2000 and 2006 we saw 2 of these months (June 2003 and July 2006 - June 2006 was 0.1C out). In August the average is even worse at 0.3 per decade. The exceptional statistics are yet to come however.... 1) Of 9 Augusts with a CET at or above 18C just 1 occurred before 1911 and 4 of these have occurred between 1990.and 2006 (more than 6 times the amount that would be expected). 2) Of 23 July's above 18C, over 20% of these have occurred over the past 30 years (more than double the amount that would be expected) 3) June is actually below trend, between 1940 and 1976 there were 5 'hot' months (a little above trend) but one since so one could say that upto 2016 we are overdue 2 hot Junes to add to 2003. 4) The only months in the year not to have a month from this century in their top 10 warmest are May, June and December so again one could say we are due a pretty exceptional June based on trend. I have to say, the thought of a hot May and June period (with the highest sunshine) fills me with joy.

No drought obviously however the GFS output would put some people on for around 2 weeks without precipitation, not long after the three weeks without spell.

Lovely output.

Not sure if you were talking solely about your location but actually we've seen at least one very hot short spell in summers 2009 (late July i think, horribly humid), 2010 (June was actually a great month), 2011(opening days of summer were terrific) and 2012 (late May and late July). I think its rather that what we want is a sustained spell which only June 2010 really even comes close to. I'm a newbie to gardening too, get to the gardening thread in the lounge.

One thing that may have passed us all by is that with you suggesting the opening week is to be cold that means a pretty to very warm second half is expected by most.

If were to take the 2.9C against the 1981-2010 average then bearing in mind that the 1981-2010 averages for February and March are 2.2C warmer then had this occurred in January or February it would have potentially yielded a CET of 0.7C. At the very least its the second most anomalous month this century to date (along with December 2010 perhaps the most anomalous months since February 1986).

I'll take June 2005, July 2006 and August 1995 please. I'm not a fan of heat but i am of extremes and the sun most of all so i'd love such a true classic.

Another beauty of a sunrise, all red/orange in the horizon.

Most models still go for warm-neutral conditions, at this range i wouldn't put faith in any but i don't see negative conditions coming back until late Autumn/winter if they do.

Not to toot my own horn but i did suggest that we'd move towards a warm-neutral/weak El Nino signature as Spring progressed and if things keep up i will be correct. The Atlantic is where we should look though, coming towards the hurricane season (only 2 months or so) those waters are very warm.

What a beautiful start for a change.

Nope.

On the subject of my analogue forecasts I've just imputed the 1997 and 1990 and we get what looks like a similar chart to the CFS for April.

Things are not that bad yet but with average rainfall in January and March overall we have to bear in mind the extremely dry 3 weeks in February and now a good week or so setting us up for potential late summer/Autumn problems if it persists.

Spring is still a good while away but there are increasing indications that we may begin to lose the cold, albeit slowly. How dry it is forecast to be is also noteable.

Congratulations and good look. Should you move on from the job i hope you will return.

7.5C, 1C below the 1981-2010 average.

That's actually not a bad chart if it came off because at this time of year we start to see maxima shoot up under high pressure so even with cool uppers it probably wouldn't be cold. .

I don't want to sound too optimistic given the CFS forecast for April and the lack of any real warm uppers forecast but modelling over the 24 hours has seemed to indicate that the high to our north east in the coming days could bring in some mild air on its northern flank and cut the cold off at the source. That's not so say that the UK will be warm but it could explain the gradual rise on the ensembles as we see a similar flow but drag in less cold air.

To say that we had a second half to January that averaged something like -1.5C and now the coldest March in 51 years the lack of truly cold minima is astounding, i doubt we've been below -10C this winter.

The really depressing thought is that we've had one in winter, one in spring so you could say we are overdue for a truly shocking summer month, we've only got 1.5C below the 1981-2010 average in summer so far,.

Top 20 for me.. 5.6 ... mikeocarroll, Lomond Snowstorm, Ferryhill Weather, summer blizzard 5.5 ... Stationary Front, alexis j 9, Aaron 5.4 ... Roger J Smith, stewfox, Dunstable Snow 5.3 ... SteveB... ... ... ... ----- mean of all 354 years (1659-2012) ----- 5.2 ... coram ... ... ... ... ----- mean of 19th century (1801-1900) ----- 5.1 ... hillbilly, Pharoah Clutchstraw, Norrance 5.0 ... DAVID SNOW ... ... ... ... ----- mean of 18th century (1701-1800) 4.9 ... 22nov10blast, seabreeze86, Burwell Weather Watch 4.8 ... godber 4.7 ... BARRY 4.6 ... ... ... ... ... ----- mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700) ----- 4.5 ... 4.4 ... Harve

Easterlies can generally be quite complicated. Here in Leeds a south easterly is probably the sunniest wind direction outside winter but a north easterly can see us under murk like the north east. A fine line.

Consensus at day 8 that high pressure will be to the north east of the UK, cold but dry.

What a poor dull month March has being in contrast to to March's 2010-2012.