summer blizzard

Looks like good stuff guys. Out of interest, how many of you go from here each year?

Stunner of a run from the GFS0z right the way through. In the high resolution timeframe we get no breakdown although thunder lovers may like the charts.. Afterward the ridge builds again and the Atlantic backs off though interestingly we appear to be seeing a trend of a displaced Azores High ridging to the UK... And then finally it culminates with a true heatwave and temperatures probably breaching 30C (some serious heat in Spain and France)..

March 2012? That was the stunner, how did you get below average.

Her track including as an invest, it's a shame she recurved given the distance from the coast was near perfect for shallow, warm water.

You knows guys, i'm getting seriously impressed with the coming warm spell. 1) The breakdown from the west just is not coming and even better, when the high shifts west the jet stream is still miles away and thickness values high so the worst case scenario is a thundery low. This point is alluded to by the chart below. 2) Temperatures are being vastly underdone by most people. Firstly uppers are as high as 9C which in June translates to 23-25C straight off, couple this with short nights and fairly dry ground in most places and its likely that the temperature will increase day by day. My personal belief is that we will breach 80F (probably north west London to Manchester, somewhere in that line), probably next weekend as humidity builds from the south and pressure relaxes slightly.

Is the Netweather forecast out today?

After 2 days of gloom and doom we have a beautiful sunrise, hopefully a nice sunny day.

Oh baby, GFS18z just gets hotter and hotter.

ECWMF has a strengthening TS at day 10 hitting the Gulf coast...

The old circulation is truly dead however one of the old outflow channels appears to have taken the lead and may need watching. No circulation yet but looks interesting.

Also a local station apparently reported 988mb and what may be upgraded to 80/85mph.

Wow it made it. Won't be for long though unless it strengthens rapidly again because the low level steering flow is easterly so another immanent landfall. It probably has tonight to either fly or die with the durinal max.

Just part of the cold front, looks like heavy rain for all but the very western most parts of Yorkshire.

The vorcity will survive however the circulation will be destroyed. Just about making landfall.

Impressive from the Mexicans as well, rather than waiting for the American NHC they did not even wait for the update and upgraded to a hurricane warning at 3.25 (their time or ours, not sure).. Radar from earlier showing the eye... Extremely impressive RI event.

Especially impressive that the models got such a good grip on it so early.

Just drizzle at the moment but there was sleet.

91E back to 30% and now moving N/NE so staying in warm water and possibly headed for landfall if it develops. Behold however the weirdest thing i have ever seen.

Looks pretty nice, some northerly shear slowing down strengthening.

Would somebody mind explaining why on the 29th May, in daylight it is sleeting.

Now at 90%, can't see much of a center though.

Now at 80% for 92E.

GFS12z today again had development starting in the high resolution time-frame It then led to this... .

91E back up to 20%. 92E (the forecast system) has emerged from the mess and is a mandarin at 40%.

Summer 2005 was essentially a summer of two halves with the hottest second half to June since 1976 and a maximum of 34C to boot which degraded into a cool and fairly poor second half. September and October 2005 however were much warmer than average before a stunning November.