summer blizzard

Golden..

Looks great although i'm not a fan of seasonal and monthly modelling, they have a habit of being wrong.

Capitalist greed caused Chenobyl? Fukushima?

Some good model runs lately, shades of May 2008.

All looking good from the ensembles at day 8/9/10. The good news is that in the past week its only delayed by about 2 days rather than writing off or keeping it back at day 15.

A consistent ensemble trend for a pressure build in 9/10 days, i dare say it may feel like summer.

Still looking good for a pressure build at day 10...

Interestingly a group of scientists are actually trying to create anti-matter, the revolution that would prevail (we have a chance to go faster than light) is profound.

GFS ensemble mean is good to go for a pressure build from day 11. Backs up the signal in recent days and the Met Office long term outlook.

Well, modelling suggests that we are going see out April with no major rainfall round here ( a few showers potentially indicated) so April will certainly be going down as a dry month and this soon after a second half of Feb which saw basically nothing. No drought danger but with a stronger sun it may not be long until things start to get dusty.

Pretty nice FI..

Marginal bias towards warmer conditions.

Sadly not but I've ordered the Lumia 920 which is supposed to have an awesome camera so hopefully that get's here soon and i can stay up and take advantage during the week (i think it's just on a flight from Phili now - cheaper to import).

It's more of an experiment really.

Out of interest how long will it be until volcanic activity is possible on the mainland of Great Britain?

12.2C, 0.5C above the 1981-2010 average.

Best looking sunrise yet, long, streaky red cloud with mist in the distance.

The persistent negative nature of the PDO does concern me and will prevent any serious movement towards El Nino however for the most part i'm pretty positive. Both the QBO and GLAAM are positive and should encourage the development of an El Nino like atmospheric response even if moderated by the PDO and so i would say that the odds of the warmest summer since 2006 are good with 2005 and 2010 not being bad analogues for what i expect (August probably not as bad as 2010). I think the bulk of the summer warmth will come in the mid-May-mid-July period with the second half being less impressive but probably close to average. The caveat here is that there are signs of a decent hurricane season which could interfere with the pattern especially in the August-October period.

I'm more bothered about May for now.. 2008 repeat would not go a miss.

QBO (Neutral) 2008 2004 2002 2000 1999 1997 1995 1990 1985 1981 1980 MEI (Neutral-negative) 2009 2006 1985 1975 PDO (Neutral-Negative) 1964 1963 1959 1952 GLAMM (Neutral-positive) 2004 2002 1991 1979 1970 1958 February-March 2004 2002 And what they project...

2005 was not really average, it had a very hot first half and a depressing second half. 2009 was actually close to average when you take out the rainfall of July.

Interesting point, Thursday will be our third day of rain so far this month. Pretty exceptional.

Last night was the first night in which i had to keep my window open.

Waiting on PDO data.

GFS18z can best be described as warm but never really settled until the very end.