summer blizzard

To be honest i'm not convinced this is fully tropical given its appearance and should probably be sub-tropical. With that said Sandy was definitely not fully tropical and kept a name for ages.

Latest advisory is 997mb and 60mph sustained.

Will be interesting to see whether convection tries to wrap around.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/ Not sure how you figure these things out but recon had 996mb and 65mph.

000WTNT41 KNHC 052203TCDAT1TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THELARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HASFOUND A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THELARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMEDVERY RECENTLY SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN.THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002MB...PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...AND BELIEVABLEBIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT. THESE DATASUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ANDSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECASTSHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEMBECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...THENACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVELTROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBALMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGHTHEY ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF JUMPS OR REFORMATIONS OF THECENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THEFLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS EXPECTED.AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARDALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE SOMEBAROCLINIC FORCING BY THAT TIME...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN ANDREAWILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ANDREA REMAININGA TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THE TRANSITION TO APOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD OCCUR SOONER.THE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORMWARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ATROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THEPRIMARY EFFECTS FROM ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALLACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONGPORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATETONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 05/2200Z 25.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 06/0600Z 26.5N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH24H 06/1800Z 28.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND ............... Personally i wonder if it will be stronger, a 7mb drop in the past 6-12 hours if replicated through tomorrow could make it a pretty strong tropical storm as the winds chase the pressure.

Frack me, reports of 1002mb already.

There's been an MJO phase which has helped it i think, i commented weeks back that data was looking good for early June and as expected we saw pressure over the Carribean relax.

Did it get 0%? This is technically not Barbara which was 90L, this is a new circulation which formed from one of the outer bands. At least we have a name, looks very wet for Florida.

To get 40C is possible but you would need to lay the groundwork and have several things happen to gleam that out of the atmosphere... 1) Soil moisture over the UK and Europe - Most people don't look at this but if your heat is coming from a drenched continent it's not going to be as warm as it could be - Because of this you will need a large part of the March-June period to be very dry over the UK and central/western Europe 2) Preceding few weeks - In order to get the required heat in the preceding say month you need several plumes so that you get a good pool of 15C uppers and warm temperatures over central Europe in the same way you want a pool of cold over Scandinavia before the easterly develops in winter. 3) Perfect Synoptic and lasting several days - As you see from the chart below you have the shortest sea track from a hot continent with high thickness values and high pressure, the only way to improve that chart is for a more developed weakness north of the Azores to act as a greater heat pump from the south... Many people will prefer 2003 for taking the record however this got 37.9C in cooler uppers and further north in general (2003 did not beat 1990 in Leeds).

As a Scotsman i personally prefer weather to be no higher than 20C and am quite happy at around 10C,

Well its up to 50% with 36 hours to go and for the first time it actually looks quite pretty.. I'd say chances are that this makes cherry at the next update and is declared a Tropical Depression tomorrow morning (apparently has competing centers).

Yes, it was a joke although i don't mind cool summers anyway (hate humidity and high minima more than anything else). Worth noting that the GEM picks up that low...

Summer over?

It's notable that none of the models actually show a breakdown within the next 8 days, what they show instead is a relaxation of pressure and shallow low pressure making it through but not really defeating the warm air-mass (instead we get cloudy and humid most likely - the worst kind of weather). If your looking for a genuine breakdown then you have to look at the day 11 GFS..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/22760382 BBC feature.

Some models are now more aggressive...

GFS18z can be binned in my book, it's an outlier compared to the UKMO, ECWMF, JMA and GEM 12z runs as early as day 6.

Darn. Had i gone with my usual method which suggested 10.7C i would have been joint 7th, i ended up in the 40's. In the seasonal i would have got 2nd although i did get a pleasing 8th. Pleasingly though i am 10th in the annual competition, my previously highest i believe was 12th.

What an odd run from the GFS12z, the low gets through but we never lose the warm airmass and end up with cloudy, humid (possibly thundery), wet weather. JMA however keeps plodding along...

Ha. Not applicable.

Center has reorganized, now declared 91L. General heading is for the west Florida coast. General view is no significant development...

Opened this thread for a bit of light hearted postulation and added the latter 2 options incase we really get some heat going (90F is 32C). My prediction is... 30C - 16th June 90F - August 12th 35C - N/A

GFS0z is very much like the ECWMF12z in how it handles the trough in my opinion, in that it has the trough approach but the angle of the Jet Stream shifts and we see the associated front effectively die as the main low heads north. Afterward we get some stunning charts as high pressure develops and a probable 30C is breached...

Interesting output tonight... 1) At day 7 all models show pressure lowering and both the GFS and JMA have low pressure from the west breaching the UK (ECWMF holds it at bay however all 3 would probably see showers break out ahead) 2) After soaking us the GFS splits the trough from the Jet Stream which veers north again and we see the Azores High build from the west - A persistent trend for several days now Summary - At this stage i don't see a breakdown in the temperature regime before the 20th at least however we will have to see if the ECWMF supports the Azores ridge as it comes into day 10 soon. We may however see a short unsettled period in around a week. Also worth noting that if we do get the unsettled spell anybody going below average will take a CET hit as minima currently holding it down.

If memory serves, the ESA are sending up something similar in the Autumn and then NASA in 2017.