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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. summer blizzard
    Not the best result result but still 7th for summer and 5th for the year, my best performances to date to this period.
  2. summer blizzard
    Sounds great, unfortunately useless. Personally i prefer my cold in the Nov-Jan timeframe so winter 06 is about the minimum i want from a winter with winter 10 and 11 being very good. Last year needed more early cold.
  3. summer blizzard
    Lovely charts for those who want summer done with.
  4. summer blizzard
    While the long goodbye continues the ECWMF finally kills the warmth at day 6, supported seemingly by the UKMO.
  5. summer blizzard
    May as well wait another month for the new one.
  6. summer blizzard
    Lemon in the east pacific.
  7. summer blizzard
    Possibly, i'm optimistic given that it seems to have hung on in one form or another. True, plenty of East Pacific stuff though.
  8. summer blizzard
    The MLC is a lot stronger today so we still can't write it off.
  9. summer blizzard
    Nhc have decided that there is a secondary center to the east taking over which will be investigated tonight. The battling centers are probably preventing surface development.
  10. summer blizzard
    Gale force winds so they just need to confirm a closed circulation.
  11. summer blizzard
    Recon into ex Dorian now, microwave pass says welcome back Dorian and ships says hurricane.
  12. summer blizzard
    Dry air chocked it, high relative shear due to speed decoupled the center. Shear dropped but dry air prevented significant redevelopment. That's my appraisal anyway.
  13. summer blizzard
    Interestingly the ECWMF is the only model to bring back a settled spell even if it is day 8.
  14. summer blizzard
  15. summer blizzard
    Its extremely weak but the center does appear to be aligned again which is a positive. Relative shear could be an issue with the speed but for now its purely dry air that looks to be the issue unlike shear which was tearing it to peices yesterday.
  16. summer blizzard
    More impressive is just how on que this 18C month is, I worked out since 1950 that we get one on average every 7 years.
  17. summer blizzard
    For evidence of why we won't get 40C from that one needs only compare last Monday to the 3rd August 1990. Both had 18C uppers, one had a perfect flow while the other was a near direct southerly and one crucially had higher pressure to gleam out everything it could.The pressure is too low and the flow too moist.
  18. summer blizzard
    Not a chance with such low pressure, there would be storms long before.
  19. summer blizzard
    Now up at 1006mb, this thing needs a good night or its dead.
  20. summer blizzard
    Dorian struggling and worse than earlier but it does still have persistent convection over the center. Tracks are very mixed as some weak runs even now have it slide under Haiti and then head for Texas. Question, I have heard previous that some systems can be shielded from shear. Would the semi circular cloud rotating from its north to west act in such a way?
  21. summer blizzard
    Too early to suggest at this stage. Its clearly being sheared to the south but its still fairly tight and only lost 2mb between advisories. I'd suggest that it would be better to see what it does tonight and evaluate tommoro
  22. summer blizzard
    Its worth bearing in mind that the first half of May 08 was stupidly warm in CET terms, its not hard to imagine what would happen if that stayed the full month.
  23. summer blizzard
    60mph and a beauty, bit of dry air though.
  24. summer blizzard
    A July northerly. Sunny with scattered clouds, close to 20C and a strong sun.
  25. summer blizzard
    On it's way.. -10 isotherm... I took the May-June analogues for the MEI, QBO, PDO and GLAAM. They matched two..
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