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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. summer blizzard
    Looks like 93L is now TD5.
  2. summer blizzard
  3. summer blizzard
    That's the stratospheric thread, this one you started last year.
  4. summer blizzard
    Thought i'd let you see a great chart i found which shows the anomaly over the sea level pressure, Very useful... So the good news is that as you'd expect in a Nina ish base state, we have lower than average pressure, it seems however that nothing can make it to the Caribbean in any kind of good shape. The nearest we come is this wave coming off Africa.
  5. summer blizzard
    At 30% in 48-120 hours however RECON was cancelled today. Scheduled tomorrow.
  6. summer blizzard
    Just thought that i would note a development which is contrary to Spring this summer has seen the MEI, PDO and GLAAM trend increasingly negative. In my opinion this is further evidence that the atmosphere is beginning to move towards a La Nina base state as we look towards winter (albeit weak at best).
  7. summer blizzard
    End of month will be best, there's little to report at the moment.
  8. summer blizzard
    Coming toward the end of the summer and my June and August predictions look pretty good to me, July was a bust though. ............................. Preliminary Autumn forecast (will update a final version next month). September: 80% chance above average (range is 15.1C-15.6C). October: 80% chance above average (range is 10.9C-12.6C) November: 60% above average (range is 7.9C-8.1C)
  9. summer blizzard
    20% chance of development in 48-120 hours. Recon are due in at 9pm tomorrow.
  10. summer blizzard
    That effect mainly occurs due to the ENSO cycle however during near neutral seasons there is much less of a correlation. All indications currently suggest an above average season. 2003 and 1995 saw two very active seasons, this season to date is technically above average. Its just that they've been mostly crap.
  11. summer blizzard
    Personally I love the sun. In summer I have a bias towards the sunset being late because I enjoy sitting outside however in all other seasons I'd prefer early light because you can't sit out to enjoy the sun when its less than 10C. As for the seasonal point I just love looking ahead. Its often said that I can tell you what it will do next week but not tomorrow as outside winter I tend to look forward.
  12. summer blizzard
    I do feel that people are being baselessly bullish. Out to day 8 and the pattern is pretty mobile with a transient ridge for the south. After day 8 and the enembles show riding centered south west, hardly a heat wave.
  13. summer blizzard
    How much snow fell in the Highlands during March.
  14. summer blizzard
    Aye, all models have low pressure close to the UK at day 7-9 so i'd be inclined to ignore the ensembles.
  15. summer blizzard
    As great as the short term forecasts are from the ECMWF it's long range forecasts leave a lot to be desired. It is currently forecasting a warm-neutral ENSO for summer along with higher than average tropical pressures (both have busted), as such i remain extremely skeptical.
  16. summer blizzard
    That's actually not a bad Autumn if we can get the high closer for some frost in October.
  17. summer blizzard
    Now in the central Pacific and weakening.
  18. summer blizzard
    Love how they say quiet when its being above average.
  19. summer blizzard
  20. summer blizzard
    No real change on the horizon for me, the Euro still verifies best and that suggests a continued mobile,pattern, probably a tad cooler than average depending on cloud amounts at night. I'm a little wary of the 30 day models personally, its logical that they will be trying to develop hurricanes which as we all know can change the output at short notice when they pour fuel into the Jet.
  21. summer blizzard
    Bar the likes of winter 07 its really not too bad. A bit mild and dull yes but its rare that takes up the full winter. Most winters have a decent cold and dry spell.
  22. summer blizzard
    Interesting that some focus on the grey stratocumulus murk however for me months like Nov 05 or Dec 10 are just so nice and sunny that its almost perfection.
  23. summer blizzard
    While there are official dates for the seasons there are always times when it clicks in your head. In 2011 it was the 25th August as under cold rain I decided that Autumn had arrived.
  24. summer blizzard
    What hype. At least Brian is reasonable essentially saying a CET between 16.6 and 17.8 is probable.
  25. summer blizzard
    What did it show last summer for winter.
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