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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. summer blizzard
    Now at 50mph and looking very good. Cooler waters not expected to be a significant issue now so we may well see steady strengthening for the next 4 days. Its main challenge is an ULL over the Bahamas which could shear it, although it also slows down significantly over these warm waters and if it becomes a large storm may fight the ULL. Afterward I would expect strengthening as it approaches shallow coastal waters close to landfall or gets barlonic forcing as it is picked up.
  2. summer blizzard
    Interesting... Out of interest i also ran a forecast of my own and got the following... A much more different picture.
  3. summer blizzard
    Definitely an interesting track. If it makes it the important point will not only be shear but whether a trough picks it up. As an optimist and with it being July i'll plump for a category 2 hitting the Carolina's.
  4. summer blizzard
    Hard to say where the best place for my weather is. Probably northern Scandinavia I think with cold, dry, snowy winters but foolish summers. I thought of eastern Scotland but its just too dull in summer. In conclusion somewhere dry, sunny and cool in summer (sub 25C) but almighty in winter. Western Scandinavia probably gets cool, stormy Autumns as well.
  5. summer blizzard
    Almost TD4, if it survives it could get to warmer water and hit the east.
  6. summer blizzard
    Had rain most of the morning and a shower a few hours ago but its clearing now.
  7. summer blizzard
    My usual method went for 17.4C, my summer forecast went for a range of 17.6C to 18C however my update goes for a range of 15.4C to 15.6C which would be consistent with Augusts since 2004. Pop me in at 17.6C for now.
  8. summer blizzard
    Just out of interest how would it look if you used spring snowcover instead of last Autumn.
  9. summer blizzard
    Should the PDO not be -0.5?
  10. summer blizzard
    September for me is an Autumn month, you just don't get the same feel.
  11. summer blizzard
    Short track recurve.. Next! I'm being a bit harsh here actually, it bodes well for the long trackers.
  12. summer blizzard
    Only 16 days without rainfall, disappointing. Still the third 20 day period this year with less than 10mm.
  13. summer blizzard
    The second half of Jan was great.
  14. summer blizzard
  15. summer blizzard
    I suspect August will be warm but minima driven as the mean trough will be close to the Uk.
  16. summer blizzard
    Nice evening tonight, a little cloudy but a nice breeze and temperature.
  17. summer blizzard
    Lovely FI to the GFS, cool and showery by the looks of it.
  18. summer blizzard
    At day 6 yes, at day 10 I have observed it is no better than the GEM.
  19. summer blizzard
    Not really sure what the argument is about, its pretty clear from both models that while it stays warm the hot, settled spell is going. GFS kills it at day 7, ECWMF at day 8. I strongly suspect that the south and west especially will get some cracking storms in a week or so.
  20. summer blizzard
    Despite humidity only rising to around 50% today has been much more humid feeling, cloudier and we have lost the refreshing breeze.
  21. summer blizzard
    Does Manley not also have coastal observations.
  22. summer blizzard
    Sleep on your covers, just use a price of card to fan you when you go to sleep and you should without cover cool naturally overnight.
  23. summer blizzard
    It looks very likely in Leeds that we will have our third twenty day period this year with less than 10mm.
  24. summer blizzard
    I'd be wary of that MJO forecast, it,s not often that we get such a reversal and the models are typically too bullish compared to reality.
  25. summer blizzard
    Still too humid for my liking.
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