summer blizzard

As I recall 1962 had a negative everything.This winter I'd guess a weak la Nina by mei values, a westerly qbo that has peaked, negative glaam and a negative pdo. Winter 09 is probably similar.

Most -MEI value since Feb 12. Me thinks a La Nina is probable albeit weak and maybe not strictly by the definition of the NOAA.

That's a bigger fall than i thought although uppers do look cooler than average even if not by all that much.

Well i had 25 days of snow on the ground then and 30 in Dec 09/Jan 10, maybe not in the same league but i loved it. Possibly. I've always coped with cold much better than warmth but assumed that was due to being born in Scotland (genes being activated and all that).

Unusual to see a polar vortex stirring. -10C upper temps widespread so soon.

Aye. I had a lot of sympathy for cyclists (i'm not a motorist anyway so that probably helped) until i watched a documentry about them. They often ignored the cycle lanes and blocked the main roads, 2 failed to stop at a roundabout and many were recorded running lights. That's not too bad then but unfortunately there seems to be a significant number of cyclists who think the law does not apply to them. If the traffic light is red then safe or not it is illegal to go and i agree, afterall i'd be sued to high heavens if i drove a car through red.

If anything Jan 10 and Dec 10 over here simply increased my appetite for extreme cold. There's nothing better than sub-zero all day but clear skies with snow lying on the ground. Of course i don't drive though and walking is not a problem with correct footwear.

Off topic but this is why a lot motorists hate cyclists and its also illegal.

Completely agree and made more complicated by different weightings.

You need to roll forward for the winter so its Feb 09 you want to think of.

Looks like a cooling pattern for the CET for the next 10 days or so, we should be under 18C by mid month. Below average looks unlikely to me still however.

Look for yourself. 2008 2006 2004 1999 1997 1990 These were comparable during June and July. Winter 09 was good. Winter 07 was horrific. Winter 05 was a nearly winter but poor overall. Winter 2000 i don't know. Feb 98 saw the record wamth. Winter 1991 was good. Most of these won't make the cut overall because we don't have an El Nino (so 1997 should be ignored) but a common theme from that list is either successful or attempted Feb cold spells,.

Strongest +QBO value since 1997.

Central Pacific Office is rubbish but keeps Gil south and as a Tropical Storm. It's possible that a trough may pick it up and recurve between 160W and 170W. Below was the 1992 track...

I've noticed it. The week before last i sat out a lot and noticed it was pretty dark by 9.30. Today i woke up for a drink and at 4.35 it was still pretty dark.

I commented in the Henriette thread that Hawaii was an option however interestingly Gil is currently moving WSW indicating possibly some Fujiwara interaction, now if it were to survive there's a chance it could pass south of the big island and well the chart below shows you all you need to know if a trough were to tug it north.

Not bad if its still alive.

ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENTAL THERMODYNAMICS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TOSTRENGTHENING...EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT PROHIBITIVE AND THEUNDERLYING SSTS OF 27C COULD SUPPORT INTERMITTENT CONVECTION OVERTHE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUGHLY STEADY STATE FOR GIL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THESHIPS AND LGEM SHOW THE SYSTEM ULTIMATELY REGAINING TROPICAL STORMSTATUS. WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACTIVE...THE OFFICIAL FORECASTDELAYS DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW UNTIL TOMORROW. Interesting although SHIPS is always bullish.

Interesting to see the dynamics between the two, as soon as Gil hit even the slightest turbulence its almost as if the shielded Henriette just took its energy. Forming so far west the devil in me kind of wants this to stay south of 15N, if it does so then Hawaii could come into play and at stronger strength than last weeks crapfest.

Very true. The past 2 years i have lived the winter at around 70m near the universities while my parents have lived 7 miles at 180m in a semi-rural area. Until this point i never realised the difference. In terms of falling snow there is not much difference however depths vary massively. In April 2012 when it snowed my parents had close to 10cm, the city had slush and it was largely a sleet event until the early hours. This January before the epic final event on the 25th i recorded 16cm (reports from that event suggest at least 12cm fell on lower ground) and while the city had a couple of inches, it was not comparable. I'd also add that in Jan 10 i recorded 29cm at my parents but nowhere close in the center.

It's actually near the Porche garage just as your entering the city center but close to the greenbelt so i'm not sure if wind direction could affect, the A62 runs close.

What's Manchester's record temperature and when? I recall it's 34C in 1990 for Leeds. Yes, it's one of the driest cities in the country according to Wikipedia and pleasingly i'd say it's one of the snowiest English cities. Quite cloudy it can be though, our sunniest direction (bar isolated occurrences in winter) is a SE wind with snow from any direction bar a straight northerly (which are lovely and sunny).

Personally i would be very surprised if Leeds was not warmer than York given a much larger urban heat effect.

GFS6z is summer perfection.