summer blizzard

Yeah it's just purely a model output centered over the tropical Atlantic that i need so i can admire model fodder category 7 hurricanes slamming the USA. In regards to 93L anyway its track is the main issue but it does look pretty good... Small chance it gets into the GOM which would be good...

I got all snow.

Ha, nope. I simply get the data, compile analogues, weight them, drop the highest and compile an average. I've not actually seen their forecast. I've been reading about it and it looks like we could get a TS which i suppose is good for the time of year however the charts i was using for the ECWMF and GFS now require subscription (do you know of anything decent?) so i'm reliant on bits and bats. Yes, the MJO looks good into early July (hopes for an Emily 05 repeat) so we should be in luck for the next few weeks. Yes, the models suggested a stable atmosphere post Andrea well in advance. My forecast takes into account the PDO, QBO, MEI and GLAAM. In this case the GLAAM, MEI and QBO were not disimilar to 1990 and 2004 in particular (they saw neutral-positive MEI) however the ENSO outlook is i think going to swing either side of neutral with building warm anomolies to the west, a PDO that's finally positive but an east Pacific that's a bit Nina ish. Speak for yourself, i would be in heaven with a repeat. In terms of hurricane landfalls in Florida/US Gulf Coast 1990 had 0, 1995 had 3 (less than 20%) and 2004 had 4 (just over 25%) so we could either get a lot of strong FISH storms or 3/4 hurricane landfalls in Florida/Gulf Coast.

Just created my own forecast for the season using primarily the years of 1990, 1995 and 2004 as analogues. My prediction is 16/9/4.

Attempting a more experimental forecast method... QBO (Positive) 2008 2004 1999 1997 1995 1990 1985 MEI (Neutral-positive) 2012 2005 2004 2002 2001 1995 1994 1991 1990 1980 1979 1969 1965 1957 1953 PDO (Neutral) 1989 1959 1957 GLAMM (Neutral-positive) 2004 1990 1988 1987 1981 1978 April-May 1990 2004 1957 1995 abb baa baa baa aba aba June: 50% chance above/below average (range is 13.6C-15.3C) July: 50% chance above/below average (range is 15.8C-16.9C) August: 84% chance above average (range is 17.6C-18.0C)

Whilst that is the case, for unsettled weather that only typically occurs when warm uppers are drawn in a pronounced warm sector (it's also less likely in summer with a maritime flow being cooler than a continental one). Models in recent days have swung definitely towards the cool camp.. Any chance of an update?

Most people don't know what an average summer is. If you exclude the July then June and August 09 are essentially average.

Perhaps it will come to me but i just don't have the anticipation of heat yet for summer in me, i find myself wishing for a phase 1 and 5 MJO in July and they are cool/cold and wet.

Andrea was never a hurricane either.

Gets in at day 7 does the low. May change but its a persistent trend.

I have to say that if we do get a cool CET in the end this April-June period will have been one of the nicest cool periods we've seen.

ECWMF0z very firm in its outlook, it wants any warmth gone and now..

Come live in Leeds, bar 2 mornings and 1 full day we've had a tonne of sunshine. East or west is fine for me.

Rained the other Thursday so will only get 13 days. Feb/March remains the longest period here.

Is this normal for Japan at this time of year?

Hard to say what the result will be given the lower than expected averages but the charts certainly have a look of 15C+ to them.

Andrea is already completely post-tropical.

92L is dead. Worth watching to see if it gets itself declared 93L. MJO should enter phase 7 in very late June so best chance for developments is into early July.

Feels warm to me, yes i do not like average July's and August's in particular (mostly because of the humidity we get in the UK).

So how is this warm spell for everybody? It's a bit on the warm side for me personally but not too uncomfortable, the sunshine is lovely though. I may also be in a minority here but i actually want a breakdown to cool weather in August, i like my warmth around the solar maximum.

Now racing up the coast as it becomes extra-tropical.

Certainly good to see something so far east at this time of year. Ships kills it within 3 days, GFS does the same but has an interesting track as below. The big problem for the next few days is a supressed Kelvin Wave causing subsidence but it it's still alive when it gets to the Winwards, it has a chance.

Recon went in again, down to 990mb and gusting to 80mph. Looks like it's made landfall now.

June's 2005 and 2006 were good.

Well, well, whatever the storm really is it looks like it may actually make landfall as a possible hurricane.