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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. summer blizzard
    GFS12z was bullish, had the system as a tropical depression at day 7. CPC have noted it too, stating that conditions are expected to be favourable for development in the west Caribbean during early June.
  2. summer blizzard
    Reduced to a lemon and split into three, appears to be too many competing vorticees.
  3. summer blizzard
    Personally i think unstable but getting worse as it goes along will the summer 2013 description. Despite my CET prediction (different method) i still think that June stands the best chance of sustained summer weather, July and August won't be devoid but i do think that cool will probably win out. Summer 2010 with a cooler July then is probably what i'd go for.
  4. summer blizzard
    Not bad in FI but heat still on the fringe in FI...
  5. summer blizzard
    Poor runs outside the tropics for me. With that said like this week it looks at least fairly dry with showers over fronts (being inland next to Pennines here this saves me from the rainfall).
  6. summer blizzard
    Two points today... 1) NHC forecast... For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). 2) GFS once again attempts to develop a system in the Western Carribean starting at day 11, by day 16 it is a strengthening hurricane in the Gulf.
  7. summer blizzard
    Upgraded to 30% and declared 91E. Turns out however it is not the same storm the models are going gaga for and the ECWMF 12z has latched on this evening so 2 systems to look at for the next 5-10 days here.
  8. summer blizzard
    Looks like a classic model battle, ECWMF says nothing (though looked like maybe a Tropical Depression) while subsequent GFS runs say that in 6 days time we have a hurricane slamming into Mexico. The NHC say........... Lemon! 1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
  9. summer blizzard
    GFS18z is much better in FI, ensemble mean has a ridge building at day 11.
  10. summer blizzard
    Models today have dropped the Carolina's prospect and ECWMF gives us nothing of note today. GFS however is pretty interesting... 1) We get a developing system east of Florida (seems to die) - this at day 11 so needs watching 2) At the same point as last night (day 14) the GFS once again develops a system in the western Carribean and heads north before dying in the Gulf of Mexico... The reason i've shown you it today is because unlike yesterday it now has support from the GFS12z and far from killing it, the GFS has a strengthening hurricane in the Gulf... 3) Also worth noting that the GFS developed another storm in the mid-Atlantic...
  11. summer blizzard
    With the East Pacific season already begun and having produced one dud i thought i would create a thread to separate discussion from the Atlantic. Perhaps a mod can pin this. ............................ First order of business is that the GFS18z has a tropical depression at day 6 and a hurricane by day 9 with what looks like impact in Mexico. GFS12z also agrees...
  12. summer blizzard
    Beauty of an FI, backing from the ensemble mean.
  13. summer blizzard
    Last month i went with the models and other data over my own thoughts and i have paid the price for it, despite the settled start i'm not sure it will last and so i will at this stage go for a cool, dry 13.5C, 1C below the 1981-2010 average.
  14. summer blizzard
    Interesting. Despite the reflecting effect of Sulfuric Acid, could it not be that there may have being initial stratospheric cooling?
  15. summer blizzard
    GFS ensembles say a ridge at day 9 which develops into a much more substantive high for us at day 13.
  16. summer blizzard
    Do you know what the winter/summer were like? When Laki had its major eruption for months we got a warm summer and then cold winter.
  17. summer blizzard
    Interesting goings on and the potential for some activity even. 1) In recent days ECWMF has put increasing definition in a cut-off low near the Caronlina's at day 5 now, GFS however has none of it although it's not an uncommon way to get genesis. 2) We should see a Kelvin wave increase the easterly trades from day 5 which could stimulate some development, the GFS18z of course opts to put on a show for us with a strong Tropical Storm headed for Cuba...
  18. summer blizzard
    A poor outlook on the whole with a cool and unsettled pattern. The one crumb of comfort is that both the ECWMF and GFS ensembles suggest a ridge at day 10.
  19. summer blizzard
    I live in an apartment which no doubt is made of metal bits, as such so long as the sun shines the temperature goes above 20C. Far too warm for my liking. very humid.
  20. summer blizzard
    The worst thing is that my usual method suggested 10.7C, but i got all cocky and ignored it with some of the data looking warmer at the time.
  21. summer blizzard
    Nothing from the 12z either.
  22. summer blizzard
    No chance of an early suprise from the ECWMF. Looking at the GFS it's very similar although it tries to form a tropical depression off the coast of Belize near the end of the run.
  23. summer blizzard
    Aye, 1997 and 2004 have held on the longest for a few months. Barely, it will almost certainly go negative this month as well.
  24. summer blizzard
    Interestingly it seems as though the means and operational runs have all come up with a more settled picture from the west, warm but potentially cloudy in the east.
  25. summer blizzard
    QBO (Neutral-Positive) 2011 2008 2004 1999 1997 1995 1991 1990 1988 1985 1981 MEI (Neutral) 2012 2009 2004 2002 2001 1997 1985 1979 1972 1965 1961 1960 PDO (Neutral-Negative) 2011 2002 1989 1976 1974 1969 1963 1959 GLAMM (Neutral-positive) 1981 1979 March-April 2011 2004 2002 1997 1985 1981 1979
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