summer blizzard

You sure? Personally i don't think we will do it this Sunday, too much wind and the flow looks pretty cloudy (though i suppose there will be a Fohn Effect). With that said 2006 was interesting, the latest date to reach 20C since x but the earliest to hit 30C since the mid 1990's.

My analysis showed that whilst we are overdue at least 1 16C+ June we are certainly not overdue an 18C+ July or August (typically 1 or 2 per decade), rather it could be argued that a horrific sub 15C summer month is overdue.

Another beauty of an FI..

So the modelling can really be summed up in two stages for the next week which is that we see a cyclonic period with heavy rainfall gone by Friday before what is essentially a plume event which quickly breaks down. My main interest however remains outside the high resolution period, yet again at day 11 the GFS6z has the trough amplify west of the Azores with an ensuing ridge response over the UK...

GFS0z gives us the warm shot before low pressure pushes through. Of interest is the persistent amplification near the Azores just after day 10 which could prompt a real warm period...

Rain on Tuesday and Thursday looks like ruining our sunny, dry spell.

It could still be correct however my forecast is based on the fact that last years borderline event was never really killed off under the surface and with the +QBO and the time of year i think we'll be trending upward through spring and summer. Of course i could be wrong.

For me it shows how unstable our weather has been recently, two very cold yearly periods and in the middle one of the warmest.

That's a point but consider that the solar peaks actually occurred in the early 1950's and 1980's and yet the warming did not kick in until the 1990's. That's either one hell of a lag or we have a problem because the 2001 peak was fairly average.

Can you not germinate inside?

August-October is peak season though recent years have produced nothing major for Florida.

Greetings. It may be on the early side (2 months until the official start) but i thought we discuss the coming season and people's thoughts. I'm personally leaning towards a reasonably active season but with quality over quantity when compared to the last few years, 2004 and 1990 are potential analogues. Atlantic sea surface temperatures in the tropics are well above average.

Most models going for near neutral recently with the CFS trending towards neutral-negative. I however am going to be a bull and suggest that neutral-positive is what we will see in the coming months.

Given that the climate is measured ove I don't know where he's getting the hurricane figures, we've just had 3 of the most active seasons in a row even if they were full of TS rubbish.

Summer 2005 was a summer of two halves. The first half was much warmer, drier and sunnier than average (the second half of June was the hottest since 1976 and the mid-June-mid-July period averages close to 18C i believe) however the second half of summer 2005 was pretty dank and depressing.

I know it's not strictly the right thread but i have a question and did'nt think i needed a whole new thread for it... I recall that the massive extinction event which gave rise to the dinosaurs was caused my mass warming and a slowing of ocean currents leading to stagnant water and the production of large amounts of Hydrogen Peroxide. My question is therefore, if the ice melts at the North Pole and no sinking occurs could this theoretically happen again? What time scale would be needed to produce similar disastrous effects? How much warming would be needed to achieve this? Is this even a forecast-able realistic scenario?

In terms of the ENSO and QBO phases i am inclined to believe that we stand the best chance since 2006 of a warm summer, with that said however the caveat here is the persistent -PDO phase and it's correlation to the AO would indicate a summer more in line with the 2007-2012 period. All to play for at the moment.

Good to go on that one.

Amazing sunshine, cloudless skies.

Wednesday. From the 13th Feb we went a total of 22 days with less than 5mm of rainfall in Leeds and modelling suggests that bar a surprise snow shower we could be going for 2 weeks or so.

What we got for the rolling CET?

GFS6z is still fairly cool for the most part with a lack of tropical air within the high however it would be fantastically sunny and dry with high durinal ranges.

Here on the edge of Leeds City Center i can just see two very small patches and one larger patch. All highly shaded from the morning sun and the bigger is shaded from the afternoon soon mostly by a tree.

You moved from the wilds of Cumbria?