summer blizzard

I would not compare this month to Dec 15 albeit mild. I do wonder if any winter has recorded two 7C months before though.

Euro is solid around the 19th albeit its downwelling we need.

SqueakheartLW Do you have an updated U Wind anomoly chart so we can see how quickly the SSW is likely to downwell.

If there's an impact from the SSW quickly then it will be felt in the final third of Feb and first third of March. So yes, a good chance of a cooling month albeit we can't price in proper cold at this stage so well above average appears likely.

Yes, reasonable chance of a proper SSW in around ten days. Late Feb/early March most likely to feel the impact.

Snow has surprisingly survived. Tally for the winter so far is now 5 events, 8 days of lying snow. Maximum depth was this event at 7cm.

Can our Sheffield contingent tell us if it's rain or snow the second band early on.

Measured 7cm just now so an average just under 1cm per hour.

Pipine Did it settle on roads straight away for you or is it the precipitation intensity which has made that difference.

Winter Cold Basically, a low center will develop along this one and progress ENE, you can kind of see this feature over Wales. This means that our current system will flatten rather than moving through in theory. The rain is the stuff to the south west that will catch up near midnight.

Cuban Zebra Sleety mix until about 3 then heavy snow. This has been the forecast for days. It's actually progressed to about 70% snow here in Scholes (198m) so your not far behind even in the center. Basically the forecast has always suggested that you need to wait for the triple point to approach and then its the occulsion aftertwards that gives the goods as the low center moves east and more cold air digs down. If it's already 70% snow now, i'm fairly optimistic.

Pacific sub-surface is now negative. I'm definitely leaning against a hot summer personally.

24JAN2024: Nino3: 1.8 , Nino3.4: 1.7, Nino4: 1.6 31JAN2024: Nino3: 1.9 , Nino3.4: 1.8, Nino4: 1.5 Jan ONI fell to +1.81. NDJ ONI increased to +2.0 (technically +1.97)

raz.org.rain I'd not rule out warmth in early March. The current forecast spell is driven by the tropics supporting blocking to the north and east but as yet the mean does not support the SSW fully which means the impact in late Feb/early March is not clear cut as yet though trending in the right direction. We saw in Jan how things can turn around. Do I suspect my own view of Feb has gone too high though, yes, probably.

Impressive for Dec 22 and really underlines the strength of Dec 10.

5.1C, 59mm.

As we are a week on, do we have another stratospheric update.

Sub Surface has hit -3 close to the dateline. Tropical convection might weaken this in the next few weeks but it's likely come late Feb and March that this returns. One last hurrah and then this Nino goes.. Geronimo.

17JAN2024: Nino3: 1.9 , Nino3.4: 1.7, Nino4: 1.4

@raz.org.rain It's worth saying that 2003 is a relatively poor PDO match for 2024 (likely) and 1990 is a poor QBO match (likely). Currently i would say the chances of the event actually ending are reasonable, we've not seen any statistical abnormality that would suggest a 2015 persistance however sub-surface SST's are still relatively neutral and we are still seeing WWB progression so we are not yet seeing a Nina flip signal outside modelling (which are typically too agressive on the up and down).

@Addicks Fan 1981 2019 saw a strong +IOD develop which is unlikely since the Indian Ocean is already fighting this. We could have a hot summer though if we see Nino slowly dwindle without a significant shift to Nina. 2003 and 1990 are examples. If we see a flip then we are looking at 2016, 2010, 2007 as better examples, not guaranteed to be bad but probably not all that good.

While not deep, it had repeated frontal snow events and is thus the snowiest winter since 2013.

Jan 21 was a great month here.

El Nino springs tend to be relatively cool between about mid Feb and mid April whether we get a SSW or not. They tend to feature May warmth. -QBO is only likely to enhance that.

I basically like abnormally cold from July to February but actually I love spring warmth, it has very low humidity normally. March 12 honestly spoiled me and made me completely flip. In terms of how things look, although it appears that Nino has peaked, it's probably not going to collapse in a 2010 style crater (basically one neutral month then Nina) which means that we can reasonably assume that we are looking at Nino, -QBO and -PDO. Generally speaking I see a good chance that spring will be relatively cool with average to cool (and likely damp) March and April before a warmer than average May.