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Bullseye

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    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Bullseye

    Another thing to add with continued snow through most of tomorrow, is the temperatures which really drop away tomorrow night and especially Wednesday, MO have my location down as minus 7 and not rising above 0 during Wednesday at all. As someone mentioned earlier should hopefully mean snow stays around for most of this week. 

    • Like 4

    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Bullseye

    12 minutes ago, Ross B said:

    We're just on the southern edge of the Glasgow snow and have got a dusting. Cars coming  off the motorway are plastered. Picture of the showers over Glasgow (before everything turned white here) 

    20210208_190313.jpg

    Hoping everything moves slightly further south! 

    Much the same here although last blob has given us cm or 2. Incoming snow may looked more favourable for us in southside.

    This might even go too south!

    • Like 4

    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Bullseye

    On 06/02/2021 at 16:45, LomondSnowstorm said:

    One thing to watch - if we do manage to keep things going through to Wednesday night, the -40C (threshold for polar low formation and the like) 500hPa temperatures start coming into the North Sea:

    image.thumb.png.c71b7c73a12e24c14c7f7acf06bcdff0.png

    How is this one looking @LomondSnowstorm on the latest runs? So much going on over next few days so apologies if you haven't had chance to have a wee look 

    I actually decided not to be lazy and had a wee look . Got it (I think) and looks good still? 

     

    Screenshot_20210207-231058.png

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    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

    I've been holding off since it's pretty difficult to pin down details with convection, but I'll do a summary this evening. I think in short I'd say - don't get your hopes up too much the further west you are tomorrow, specifically, because it's possible we end up with this 'discontinuity' in the flow where it goes quite abruptly from easterly to southeasterly over the middle of Scotland:

    image.thumb.png.ecc836a3dc7e169bcf9632399669fe1b.png

    The UKV for what it's worth does continue to build showers through the day and eastern areas will certainly get frequent snow showers but further west it'll likely be a bit more sporadic because of this. However, by Monday morning this should be resolved, and we will get a bit more of a northerly tilt to the flow and a flow that goes from west to east, meaning more snow and streamer possibilities for central Scotland:

    image.thumb.png.2432a11a95e0f66ad331898153defd38.pngimage.thumb.png.4132b6657e60835ce32b73548a999941.png

    Beyond that I'd say things are likely to continue similarly to Monday, some potential for streamers or slightly more organised stuff especially following the next low undercutting on Tuesday but I'd think somewhere like Cumbernauld should do reasonably well since the flow will be pretty close to a straight easterly, or a slightly northerly tilt, so any streamers that do form in the Forth are quite likely to be heading in your direction.

     

    It's worth noting though that the isobars are going to be more 'southerly' than the flow itself - you can see today for example that the showers are moving through pretty much perfectly east-west despite a southeasterly tilt to the isobars:

    image.thumb.png.d927ed0139e441f7e621161787883210.png

     

    Thanks for this, always good to hear your thoughts. On this, I think Matt Hugo is following same lines as yourself and sees Monday/Tuesday as better opportunity for something more intense with regard to snowfall. 

     

     

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    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Bullseye

    BBC lunchtime weather. Two things to note (while I should be working from home!). They had Glasgow temperature down as 7 today "only" 4 at the moment so could be good 2-3 degrees out here. That said, Sunday & Monday looked pretty bloody good for those looking for snow pushing well inland towards central belt and north of central belt. Wee bit of a dilemma here, wrong for today with temperature but hopefully not wrong for Sunday & Monday  Edit: This will be running off earlier ECM run.

    • Like 10

    Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bullseye

    10 minutes ago, birdman said:

    Should we expect Ice Days from this Easterly and how do the modelled temps fare compared with the previous 2018 BFTE? Are there any similarities? Thanks

    Not sure how this may play at part but how much of a difference is there between -10 TO -12 uppers showing for next week compared to -14 TO -16 like end of Feb/First days of March in beast from east 2018? Would that be low enough to have similar temperatures to BFTE?

    • Like 2

    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Bullseye

    5 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

    I stand corrected. I am completely wrong. GFS (purple line) has outperformed every model over the past few days. I don't ever remember seeing that before. 

     

    1392815366_ScreenShot2021-02-02at5_01_36PM.thumb.png.2c6e741f88506f1fbf9dc5d21e49b43f.png

    Screen Shot 2021-02-02 at 5.01.36 PM.png

    Isn't that new GFS (GFS//) in Purple? 

    Over the course of above graph looks to be ECM still comes out on top but as you say GFS looks best over last few days but of course different pattern involved now with how this low is handled next 72/96 hrs. 

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    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

    Absolutely, and the closest thing you'll get to a modelled Forth-Clyde streamer on a global model:

    image.thumb.png.92f4fd68a3ab7fb8e55018d325eda642.pngimage.thumb.png.9d28b5f139581306481ff66c2d62c214.png

     

    What a week coming up for us! Get a colder first half of February with snow and quite quickly this could be a memorable winter for us - aye, I am getting ahead of myself - blame the ECM. 

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    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

    The ECM doesn't like to make things simple sadly:

    image.thumb.png.0bac2e4b1eaae6d77a5df8e730cf3eb3.png

    If we're comparing like for like then the low is significantly further south than yesterday's offering, and arguably is trending towards the GFS (certainly it's a hair away from UKMO, but it does at least delay the arrival of the -8C uppers by a day or so, at least:

    image.thumb.png.df1ddf4d8268c87eefbc06210117f332.pngimage.thumb.png.faa118d6c3bee93ad228c1c65cfc6ef8.png

     

    On the other hand, I mean, this isn't bad for 48 hours work:

    image.thumb.png.66de0b66aae0f99982b2e30835822a2a.png

     

    After this it's moreso high ground accumulation up to Saturday evening and slight lower ground melt:

    image.thumb.png.f765fb0dde0924060d0afc9de2ea8a8e.png

    But in the end it does work out fine:

    image.thumb.png.552f5ed5f4542663cb72649c020fa720.png

     

    Proper behind the sofa job by ECM there but then all good for Sunday - most of Scotland in -11 uppers. So close now. 

    • Like 10
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