[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Wee photo or three from me, this was yesterday outing to Pollok Park - always a must. 

[Model tweets]

All talk about upcoming week (quite rightly)

But thought I would add this in with some insight of GLOSEA for month of February (and ECM).

 

[Model tweets]

50 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

Almost a ramp from Marco/MO there. As mentioned earlier they must be confident although probably come Tuesday we can be more than confident one way or another.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Thankfully the ECM looks to have backtracked somewhat towards the GFS and UKMO (although UKMO not the 10/10 run like this morning but still great). JMA has nudged uppers of around -10 into Scotland by next weekend. All that after the midweek snow chances! 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Just now, Norrance said:

BBC weekly weather on Countryfile not that impressive unless you live up on a hill. High ground buried though. Fronts get further North and no Beast at least until next wekend. Hope that they are wrong! 
A cold day here today with just a flurry of something wintry first thing. Yesterdays skiff surviving in shaded bits. Hopefully a couple of snow showers this evening!

Not sure how the BBC countryfile forecast works but certainly the BBC evening weather after news seems to be running off the ECM 0z, at least that is what I could gather from reading MOD thread this week. Sure someone can correct me on this if not. 

[Model tweets]

Away to see what the JMA is offering... 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

UKMO bringing colder uppers in next Thursday -10 uppers into far NE coast while GFS brings colder uppers of -10 into good part of Scotland by overnight Friday into Saturday. All so close and all so exciting! 

Should add not like it isn't cold just (which may have sounded if i was saying it was mild) now but getting colder next week

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

BBC Scotland lunchtime was interesting for later tonight into tomorrow morning - some snow showers pushing in from the east and going inland across central belt. Not sure if this was updated charts the BBC were using but nevertheless still looked good. 

[Model tweets]

Always take note when this account tweets (not often). Fingers firmly crossed

[Model tweets]

25 minutes ago, Griff said:

Fair play to Nitzan he has banged the drum on similarities between this winter and 1984/85 since early December. Just the final and main hurdle now

[Model tweets]

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

12 minutes ago, Klippie said:

Here at 22:30 its...Air +0.8deg/C, Ground -2.1deg/C, Cloud Base -14.6deg/C

At around 6pm it was A+1.2, G+0.8, C.B.-15.6

With those temperatures you would think any precipitation would be snow.

The Beeb Weather is showing rain all day for us Thursday.

However one of the charts is still showing snow.

      

At best I think it will be sleety pish or baltic cold rain...fingers crossed for the white stuff though.

 

Now would be grand time for GFS exaggerated snow charts to be right! 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Hope @Met4Cast doesn't mind me posting this in here. Some further interest in short term for Scotland especially further north. 

Also think the latest ECM, has not only got us remaining in colder air now but interesting looking day on Thursday.

 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

23 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Yeah, a few models hinted yesterday the showers would move in from more of a westerly direction through the day so we need that to happen. Haven't checked the models this morning though! 

Agree with this. Going by this tweet may be the case later tonight - can just make out snow showers heading more inland on this graph 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Looking at this afternoon runs, quite a change compared to this morning run especially from GFS with milder air now struggling to push into Scotland around midweek. Still agreement to be firmed up on snow over this weekend and then we have temperatures really dropping tomorrow night into Sunday - I know I keep saying it but really is good winter for most of us lot but understand down south maybe not so much. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

45 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

That has caught my eye for later tomorrow not sure if it is a trough or a front but either way both of the wrf nmm show an increase in snow showers coming in to the west and south west of Scotland then possibly moving into other areas it’s something that will probably change positions til we get to then but will keep watching it 

Oh that looks quite tasty! Further to this (and this may not work!), someone posted latest short range models take on snow for next 48 hrs in Model Thread - now this is where I try to link the post - hopefully works but if not all looks good for tomorrow evening and Sunday (especially the ARPEGE). 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Ross B said:

 

Headed over to Northwest forum and good to see they had snaw too - alot of talk about more snaw events later this week and start of next week. Since this is a nae show tonight for me need to look for next snaw event...

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Don't want to jinx it but some heavier bursts starting to form around Glasgow....

 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Light snow here in southside of Glasgow although I am up around 140m so may be like last night with little to no snow around Rutherglen. Will see how this develops.

It is so light that the old yin (street lamppost) is helping me oot! 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

16 minutes ago, Ross B said:

The temperature is continuing to drop and its almost full on snow 

Looked at this post and decided to have a wee look on the window, can confirm now turned to light snow here from sleet earlier. Interesting and promising I hope anyway. @Stormeh may also have snow as he isn't far away from me based on previously snaw 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

24 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

I do like the look of the BBC forecast 

 

Big upgrade from the Met office forecast for here. Earlier it was showing mostly dry with the odd snowflake.

It’s all to play for, I think some of us are in for a nice surprise over the next few days

And then to counter that no mention from Sean Batty of snow for Wednesday/Thursday. Couldn't make it up

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

I like this guy! Although we would all prefer the ECM track of low.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That is a good question Nick(it is Nick isn't it?)

gefs and ecm

they have been hogging the COD for most of this season now and they are finally on the move,hopefully,...a pattern change maybe?

I have just posted a tweet from Masiello into the tweet thread which relates to MJO phases and how the SSW may have temporarily paused the progress of the MJO. They seem to hinting over on Twitter of MJO into more favourable phases for blocking around late Jan. 

[Model tweets]

What this means, see below. Fwiw Anthony is under the impression the SSW had temporarily put the progression of MJO phases on hold. 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Came across this on Twitter, may not lead to anything as plenty of change until Midweek but interesting where we stand so far - as mentioned by others could be potentially another snow event for 3rd week running. Jinxed and Double Jinxed now!!