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Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. Ben Sainsbury
    LightningLover Just bringing it back in-line with the rest of the models, nothing to be concerned about!
  2. Ben Sainsbury
    Frosty hollows I wouldn't stress too much, that rain more-or-less just marks the boundary really.
  3. Ben Sainsbury
    John88B Bristol could definitely see a few strikes tonight. Although, with the initial destabilization further east, we want to start off there and follow it back WNW through the overnight period.
  4. Ben Sainsbury
    Good to hear of the positive reports further southeast. I'm also out chasing tonight, and probably finding somewhere near the M4/M25 corridor. Don't really want to get sucked into the poor road network across the far SE.
  5. Ben Sainsbury
    It appears to me, the models have been trending in a good direction. I wasn’t originally overly optimistic about tonight, but that has all but changed.
  6. Ben Sainsbury
    WeatherArc Thanks mate, good find there! The medium range models at the moment do also seem suggestive of this too. For you @AndrewHamm even if there aren't any barreling troughs moving through mid-month, the model output does seem to show a good few mesoscale days across Texas which can produce some incredible supercells and a few tornadoes. I had first hand experience of this last year under the "death ridge" set-up and 24th May 2023 produced the most outrageous storm I have ever seen, including a possible rain-wrapped wedge.
  7. Ben Sainsbury
    ChannelThunder Very peculiar! Not sure how I'm meant to chase this one if confidence is high enough
  8. Ben Sainsbury
    I'm seeing a lot of well-experienced forecasters/chasers becoming very concerned about the upcoming prospects from Thursday onwards. Fortunately on night shifts so will be able to follow the entire event. If only I'd decided to go chasing out in the States a month earlier
  9. Ben Sainsbury
    NOAA Seasonal Forecasts updated today and this is what you'd like to see as a storm chaser going into May.
  10. Ben Sainsbury
    Eagle Eye What an absolute beauty!
  11. Ben Sainsbury
    WeatherArc Have to agree with you there, a higher chance of tornadoes today and less conditional. Target for me would be somewhere between Iowa City and Davenport, along I80. Right on the tip of the moisture plume and some impressive profiles as you have highlighted. Fond memories of Iowa, captured a weak tornado on my first ever US chase day last year just SE of Des Moines in Knoxville.
  12. Ben Sainsbury
    Obviously, highlighted Dodge City/Hays last night… Managed to get storm initiation but this was the likely environment it was working with.
  13. Ben Sainsbury
    Alderc 2.0 Only a handful, a tad surprised to be honest. Wonder if it was anything to do with the moisture quality this time as that was expected to be adequate but not great, I’ll have to have a look.
  14. Ben Sainsbury
    Assuming sufficient moisture advection, I actually reckon the 10% hatched will be realised tonight. Get the impression we may see a significant tornado. We’ve been missing such large instability from the majority of setups this year and I’m seeing some huge 3CAPE values being modelled tonight. If I had to guess, central parts of Kansas would be my sweet spot, maybe Hays? Though, people in Dodge City will need to be on high alert.
  15. Ben Sainsbury
    Eagle Eye Very cool shelf cloud at least mate, if nothing else!
  16. Ben Sainsbury
    Particularly concerned about the set-up tomorrow, could well and truly be some strong-violent long track tornadoes. Tonight seems to be trending upwards too with regards to tornado risk.
  17. Ben Sainsbury
    Dxnielwashere That is a cracking funnel cloud there mate! Interestingly the cell undergoes a split right before you observed that funnel cloud.
  18. Ben Sainsbury
    Anyone near Plymouth that can get a visual on the storm?
  19. Ben Sainsbury
    Already some right-moving cells out in the channel. Looks like it will be an interesting day! This cell really kicking into gear after a storm merger and now getting "that look"
  20. Ben Sainsbury
    Eagle Eye One heck of a profile that is for UK standards. If only we had >1000 J/Kg of CAPE... Just hoping we get sufficient instability to build with enough diurnal heating. Definitely capable of a low-topped supercell with large 3CAPE.
  21. Ben Sainsbury
    AndrewHamm Hi mate! It's really anyone's best guess at this point. With an early terminating El Nino, it looks like an active season is likely which is good, however even within an active season you will inevitably have quiet periods. I have attached the latest long-range CFS forecast for April and May below: Obviously, these need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt but they currently suggest above average rainfall across our typical chase region, however there is a greater consensus for significantly above average rainfall for May. Now this would suggest that May is potentially the better month to go this year, however should April start off very dry, the CFS could be indicating a very active end of April. Personally, confidence is just a little higher for the May 6-15 period vs April 21-May 1 imo. Both periods look good at this point, but that's not to say there won't be some quieter spells within the months of April and May.
  22. Ben Sainsbury
    Dreadful scenes across Indiana and Ohio, basically worst case scenarios. Doesn't look like changing anytime soon either... I worry it may be a bad year for fatalities, May and June in particular.
  23. Ben Sainsbury
    WeatherArc Some of those soundings are ridiculous. As you say, if we can get discrete development that can interact with the front and become surface-based, then these storms will be supportive of producing a tornado and potentially strong.
  24. Ben Sainsbury
    Much appreciated for all the posts @WeatherArc. Trey has an exceptional channel with all things severe weather/tornadoes, and highly recommend checking out for those that want to learn more.
  25. Ben Sainsbury
    I remember Atlantic 252 Literally deja vu to a few weeks back. The low is almost definitely going over N France isn't it.
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