Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,364

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Hoping for some westward corrections, if a storm won't hit me I'd much rather it go west because of last year...

    Possible funnel cloud from storm passing west of me, another time and good lightning from a storm going west of me mid morning. Another time had lightning to the west that somehow managed to light up my whole garden but didn't photograph from indoors.  Only good storms going east of me were in September and October (although not the most active lightning wise for the October storm the September one was surprisingly active to be fair).

    Judging by the last two days, we've seen greater Theta-W advection westwards than the models have gone for and since Wednesday is a continuation of a similar theme I'm not quite as confident with the forecast.

    @Supacell How's your view of that cell that was near Skipton, photographic evidence of the cell will be key here to see if it has exhibited any supercellular characteristics. Too many people nowadays scream Supercell just by radar signature.

    • Like 5

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Ben Sainsbury

    6 minutes ago, Lance M said:

    In the Met's week ahead forecast, Alex almost has you believing it's a guarantee on Weds AND Friday.  For the latter, their graphics show an occluded front coming directly out of France into CS Eng, but the models are heading it into Benelux, so not sure where they're getting that from...

    Eh? To me the GFS is the only model that has the system missing the UK completely. ICON appears very good still, ARPEGE doesn't develop an intense feature which is at odds with all the other models. IMO the UKV, NMM, ICON, ECM, UKMO all have something crossing the SE and that's been the consistent theme throughout, was always going to be a SE England event unless I'm missing something.

    Not saying the system won't miss the UK, but I'm more in agreement with the Met O at this point.

    • Like 2

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Ben Sainsbury

    39 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

    I stayed up for nothing tonight for goodness sake!  Now I’ll have to wait till   Wednesday night which Looks prolific on the models.

    Need to be careful about getting carried away for Wednesday night as this looks primarily a SE England event. Regardless, as I see it today the majority of the models have a large MCS ploughing NE across SE England. Decent instability, Strong Shear, Steep Lapse Rates all a recipe for a cracking event, but as always these have a tendency to shift eastwards. But one to keep an eye on as we're only 48-72 hours out.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

    Indeed. But I'm a bit far from there. I'm about 10 miles north of Portsmouth and seeing very distant flashes to the south.

    I think Portsmouth, maybe slightly east is a good shout in my opinion. As instability transfers NE there may be several clusters of thunderstorms that head your way tonight. That saying there are likely to be periods of no activity at times.

×
×
  • Create New...