Ben Sainsbury
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Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury
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ICON 6z going for localised 38C on Monday, and 39C on Tuesday which is a touch up on its 0z run as the clearance of heat is delayed an hour or two.
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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Even allowing that the temperatures the GFS is pumping out even on the Monday morning at 9am is 4c above what we saw in July 2019 and 3c higher than the blisteringly fast July 2015 at the same time.
When the other models are producing temperatures pretty much in line with the two above examples for the Monday (and given the airmass at 850hpa and thickness looks broadly the same *at that point* in the heatwave) I'm struggling to see why we'd be 4c higher.
Broadly the GFS is running 2-4c warmer than every single other model is at 9am. Gotta be a reason surely?
NetWx MR 12z has a 39C at 09UTC/10am for far N Coast of East Anglia
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NetWx MR 12z also gets rid of the heat a touch faster than its 0z run too. However, it still achieves 40C on Monday and 41C on Tuesday.
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In the response to the clearing of heat quickly on Tuesday, it's also good to remember that it's one thing the model showing it, but it's another thing actually happening too!
Since we're talking about fine margins here, all it takes is for the cold front to be a few hours slower in reality vs modelled for a much wider spread of temps close to 40C. Assuming we stay at this knife edge until Tuesday then anything can still happen.
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Obviously, Tuesday's temperatures are highly dependent on how quickly the heat clears east through the day. It does make for uncomfortable viewing if you are looking for record breaking temperatures, but just having a look at the GFS 0z ensembles, a central region like Oxford still has an ensemble mean of 20C at 850hPa at 1500 on Tuesday, so majority of members atm keep the heat across eastern half of England through ALL of Tuesday.
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20 minutes ago, camturbo said:
Could well be some belters somewhere in the uk. Look forward to seeing some svr warnings or how about estofex level 2 maybe 3. Surely something will happen after all of this heat eh!
I'm not convinced we'll see a level 3 as that seems to only be issued a few times per year for the entirety of Europe, but I wouldn't rule out a level 2 as I've seen one for the UK before!
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10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
MOGREPS 12z for London. Clears the heat later. Control (dark blue line) is the earliest to do so. Absolute peak Monday night but level of heat during day time surely enough to challenge records.
This is the most mental set of MOGREPS 12z I've ever seen, for London too averaging 22C at 850hPa when you might expect somewhere across CS England coast to be even higher.
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Could be some absolutely colossal thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and then overnight into Wednesday. NetWx MR just shows the volatile atmosphere over the UK, realistically 1,500-2,000J/Kg CAPE locally along with strong wind shear (both low & upper levels) and a heightened tropopause so cloud tops exceeding well above 40,000ft. Recipe for some nasty storms and supportive of supercells, but obviously lots of uncertainty regarding magnitude of CAPE and where storms are most likely etc.
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2 minutes ago, Rammie said:
On that chart, does that mean that in Bristol for example, it will be cooler next Tuesday, than today?
Not exactly mate, Bristol reaches 34C at midday before temperatures falling away through the afternoon as the heat clears away.
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3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Very much like the gfs!!!i think we can add a couple of degrees to the raw output!!looks like i breaking records 2 days in a row here in leicester!!over to ecm to finish this astonishing ouput!!
Any pics as well mate?!
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UKMO 12z sees 37C CS England on Monday and 39C towards Cambridge on Tuesday. That's raw model output, locally maybe a degree higher.
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NetWx MR 12z, breaking our all time record and maybe 40C on both Monday and Tuesday.
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3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:
The CET record high minimum is 19.6 (20 July 2016), anyone know the UK record high minimum? That could go too.
Everything you need can be found here!
July's highest minimum is 23.3C, highest ever is 23.9C. I think its very likely this will be beaten based on current model output. UKV doesn't have temps dropping lower than 25-26C Monday night in places.
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A massive jump on the GFS ensemble mean from 18z to 00z for most areas. Oxford for example,18z 850hPa mean peaking at 20.5C, 00z mean peaking at 22.5C! Some ensemble members even exceed 25C at 850hPa which is mind-boggling.
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NetWx MR 12z has widespread 36-37C Monday and fairly widespread 37-38C on Tuesday, so likely a 39C or maybe even close to 40C in there.
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4 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:
1. Oh let's bash the Met Office time. When we are talking about a few hours difference.
2. Sunday. 'Mid to upper 20s across the board'. The actual model outputs this morning, with temps widely of 30-32C:
With regards to your 2nd point, I think @mb018538 was making reference to just the UKV model, which technically we should place more emphasis on as its the higher resolution model. That saying if we hit 30C towards the Bristol area on Sunday, that's still fairly rare and likely the first of 3 days which may exceed 30C (obvs Mon & Tuesday somewhat higher).
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Models were all relatively steady overnight with an improved GFS 0z ensemble mean too. The ensemble mean for Plymouth actually reaches 20.2C at 850hPa which is extraordinary.
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Just for the sake of it but GEM 0z is exceptional for both Monday and Tuesday with the 20C isotherm over SW UK by Sunday evening.
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7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
6z MOGREPS ens. More extreme and more prolonged heat than the 0z suite.
Quite a striking 6z MOGREPS, how almost all of the ensemble members get above 20C at some point.
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14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Excellent point - I stand to be corrected if ‘rainless storms’ are less likely to produce as many CG strikes ??
I don't have as much experience with "rainless/low precip storms". My assumption is that these 'rainless storms' are in the form of elevated thunderstorms, since elevated thunderstorms generally produce less rainfall and occur at an elevated level, typically above 850hPa. A fair amount of the rainfall from elevated thunderstorms evaporate as it falls through the hot dry layer of air below (which acts as a cap for surface convection). Not backed up by scientific literature but from experience elevated thunderstorms produce less CG strikes than surface-based storms, but still produce a reasonable number especially if the elevated storm is highly electrically active. So there will still be a heightened wildfire risk should we see any thundery activity into early next week.
Apologies I understand this a little off-topic from the models.
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39.7C Cambridgeshire - Mon 18th July.
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For what its worth NetWx-MR also going for 40C at T168, only at midday too!
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UKMO would be hot post T168, probably a shy cooler than GFS though. With the ICON, GFS & UKMO all going for a plume of sorts, then I'm not sure I'd give the GEM the time of day... unless the ECM backs it that is!
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3 minutes ago, CoxR said:
does anybody have a rough estimate as to what a 43 C max would be in reality when accounting for the GFS' biases?
This is one of the rare situations CoxR where since we have never experienced this here in the UK in real world that we wouldn't know what temperature this would correspond to in reality.
Just looking closer at this GFS 6z run, the *28C* 850hPa isotherm just about skims Kent, with 27C more widely. Utterly remarkable.
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Ben Sainsbury
If we're looking at the 'absolute' maximum at the moment, Heathrow currently stands at 28.4C. GFS had an max of 29C today and ECM 27C. So GFS appears to be closer is from my POV so going forward a middle ground is probably most sensible, but anyhow the 12z runs beginning to roll out now. I can't imagine any real significant changes, other than a little shift east/west due to your typical run-to-run variation.