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Ben Sainsbury

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Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Ben Sainsbury

    UKV & GFS going for a similar theme on Sunday (the day which looks most interesting to me), with scattered showers/thunderstorms at first, before merging into multi-cells. Seems to be an outside risk of an isolated supercell given the atmospheric profile, but would certainly be talking of more organised convection than the week just gone.  

    Skew-T shows decent SB instability around 1,500J/Kg, more than sufficient although relatively skinny at upper levels and profile is pretty saturated. Some directional & speed shear, with decent veering in the low-levels. This combined with stream-wise vorticity and low LCLs suggests risk of funnel clouds or a weak tornado too. 

    image.thumb.png.d13ef568e483662ec4ab08b842a641b9.png

    Other models more keen on elevated thunderstorms rather than surface-based, which would negate any severe risk.

    Merely speculating at this point, but hints of something promising somewhere across England/Wales on Sunday.

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    Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Chase is on the cards today. Going to head down to the M4 corridor, I think somewhere just west of Reading and that should give me plenty of time to make any calls.

    4 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

    Yeah, I've just booked the afternoon off work so definitely a chance it will all go bust 🫣

    On a more serious note, it definitely feels quite humid outside this morning, but it's totally cloudy where I am.

    Do we need this to clear to maximize our chances, or are other atmospheric factors at work?

    Mix of both really mate, for more active thunderstorms we do need some sunny spells to develop.

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    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Just a quick question!!if the ukv is a high resolution model why is it playin catch up with the ecm?!!you would think being a higher reso model that it would perform better inside 2 or 3 days?!!

    The UKV uses the same boundary conditions as the deterministic (UKMO) model. Therefore, you might expect the UKV to follow closer to the trend of the UKMO more often than not. So if the UKMO is "playing catch up" with the ECM, chances are the UKV might be as well. 

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

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    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Ben Sainsbury

    Unfortunately haven't got much time to post on here tonight as you can imagine work is... hectic! However, I am in agreement with what the Met O is going for over the next 36-48 hours. IMO, I think we'll see an Amber at some point, probably around the M4 corridor and covering Exmoor/Dartmoor/S Wales. 

    Best of luck to you all and hope you get a nice covering of snow! 

    • Like 9

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM ensembles T168 (or some of them anyway!):

    gens_panelpyz0.php.png

    And here’s the way out!  As @bluearmy rather cryptically noted above, there’s a sizeable number of these that put up a ridge in front of the low that would otherwise bring the downfall of the UK cold spell were it to cross the Atlantic and impinge on the UK bringing air from the south.

    Here’s perturbation 12 to illustrate what I mean:

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

    It will be really interesting to see if this option gathers traction - it would gain traction if the models are currently underplaying the potential to maintain or re-build heights in the Greenland area, and it is entirely plausible that they may be.  One to watch.  

    I really wouldn't rule this scenario out as I've seen it a number of times before. This would be the ultimate cherry on top, to prolong this very cold spell even further towards Christmas.

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    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Ben Sainsbury

    Much better set of  GFS ensembles this morning, with confidence growing of the cold extending all the  way through next week. After that some indications of a Scandi high developing, which may result in a temporary mild spell but it's all speculation at this point.

    Regarding the sliding low, it's better from all the main models today (bar the ICON, which is a bit further north), as we maintain a NE-ENE'ly flow. Admittedly, most of them produce little to no precipitation over the UK, but we know not to take these as gospel at this range.

    Now we await the EC!

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    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Ben Sainsbury

    4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

    Interesting. So the air that's coming down to us from the north this week could be a lot colder (or warmer) than we're expecting?

    Generally, the models have a decent grasp at the "big picture" but there's every chance the airmass might be a couple degrees warmer/colder, exactly as @Met4Cast highlighted in his previous post.

    One thing to add about observations too, is that observations at the surface are sparse enough as it is in the Arctic Circle. But observations at 1.5km height in the atmosphere in the Arctic Circle are even rarer.

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    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Ben Sainsbury

    21 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Interesting observation - Soundings from Faroes and Jan Mayen to our north are 2-3c colder than models are showing, this could enhance snowfall/convective features outside of what models are predicting. 
    Could contain: Text, Letter

    And as these observations are fed into model through data assimilation. This is where a few people were talking before; because the Arctic is so observation-sparse, we really don't know the state of the atmosphere until the airmass makes it in range.

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