[Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023]

Based on tonights runs, after earlier elevated thunderstorms locally, I will be heading up to Stoke-on-Trent to position myself for the afternoon convection. Seems like Manchester/Liverpool is right in the firing line tomorrow. 

Regarding the elevated thunderstorms tomorrow morning, could be anyones guess who sees them; but favouring CS/SE England, into East Midlands/E Anglia at the moment.

[Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023]

UKV seems to come in-line a little with the AROME for the surface-based activity tomorrow afternoon, but keeps the widespread elevated activity during the morning. If UKV comes to fruition this could be one of the most active thunderstorm days in a while.

[Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023]

5 minutes ago, Convective said:

Storms developing over northwestern France. Interestingly, the majority of models did not forecast any developments here, and those that did, didn’t show developments until much later.

Don’t follow the models too literally. As with any ‘plume’ setup, nowcasting is the best way…

You're right, those that did have initiated a bit early. Maybe suggests atmosphere is a bit more unstable than initially thought? Purely speculating at this point.

[Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023]

39 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Scary how, what's it showing.

How different it is to the other models, just 18 hours out. 

[Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023]

2 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Might be chasing these on the Welsh border tomorrow, but still disagreement with the UKV and other models so it is a tricky one to call. 

AROME is VERY different to almost every other model, it's scary. AROME is my favourite convective model...

Also chasing tomorrow, so I have no idea.

[Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023]

After a line of elevated showers/thunderstorms moves through Saturday morning across England, the UKV is going for good clearance with temperatures rising to mid-high 20s. These seemingly allow surface-based thunderstorms to develop across CS England/Midlands/E Wales, these appear to be in a moderately unstable environment coupled with strong-very strong deep layer shear. These do appear to be within the post-frontal environment which I feel is something I don't see particularly often? That saying, recipe is there for a few severe thunderstorms to develop yet again (possibly a supercell or two as well), the question is, will everything come together?

[Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023]

It's great to hear of all your experiences! For me personally, since a very young age I've always been fascinated by thunderstorms. Something about witnessing thunderstorms makes me feel alive. Overhead thunder has only scared me on a handful of occasions; that saying when I went chasing in the States earlier this year, those storms there were a different breed and scared me on another level.

[Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023]

Some impressive atmospheric profiles being modelled for Saturday, though I can't help but feel like it's very similar to what we had two weekends ago. That saying, I think already at this stage, somewhere is likely to see some active thunderstorms.

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

4 minutes ago, swny said:

Really starting to pop up now.

Yep, deep convection now. Also in York.

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

1 minute ago, ChannelThunder said:

Models use UTC, right? So you could be an hour behind in terms of UKV's time frames vs reality? Happy to be corrected if UKV actually accounts for BST.

You’re right. Z & UTC are basically the same. So in the model 12Z/UTC would correspond to 13:00BST etc.

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

28 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

So thoughts anyone, does the front seem to be going slower or faster than expected ?

Overnight, the models have toned back on the speed of the front a smidge, so a slightly more widespread risk imo vs yesterday model runs.

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

ECM 12z has slowed down the front a little, allowing it to have better engagement with the high Theta-W plume. Has thunderstorms as far south as Peterborough late tomorrow evening. 

May have cherry-picked the model, to fit my agenda  

Anyway, I'm off to drive up to York now for tomorrow chase. All the best tomorrow for those chasing or in the warning area!

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

2 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Can’t help but have a bad feeling that this may well see the real fireworks mature and explode off after the main ingredients have left the country. Like August 2020 in the North sea and August 2012 (forgot the date). For fast moving setups, there’s too little room for us to be guaranteed something. Unlike the USA, France, Germany etc. Theres too much flattening happening, rather than the trough digging deeper just before our shores to maintain a humid Southerly for a much longer period of time to mix with the overlapping cooler air aloft. I hope I’m wrong however. 

Thanks for filling me with confidence before making my drive up to York later this evening  

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

We're still only taking about a couple hours difference from this being a bigger and more widespread event, so it's still not out the realms of possibility.

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

2 hours ago, Supacell said:

It really is racing through on the models. If it speeds up anymore than there will be no heat tomorrow and the 31⁰c being forecast for the southeast will be closer 21⁰c . As you said earlier though, we probably won't know until tomorrow when that cold front is coming through.

Either way, the cold front should begin to organise over the next 6 hours or so, so hopefully we'll have a better idea on the timing of the front when the 12z runs are out later.

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

Timing of the cold front needs to chill, otherwise we're going to be left with nowt at this rate. Looking a very tight affair at the moment.

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

1 hour ago, Supacell said:

This is the worry. If the cold front goes through too early it will be a case of severe thunderstorms over the North Sea and near Continent. The slower it moves east, the better. 

Very much so. Last 24 hours, models have trended on front moving through a bit quicker. That saying if we're talking severe potential, I'd rather too quick than too slow, as at least we'll have storms in their discrete stage before things get a bit messy. 

Hopefully, models trend a bit the other way tomorrow. But even then, I am a little more hopeful that high pressure to our east might be a bit more stubborn and I doubt the models will have a good grasp on timing, even during Sunday itself!

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

stormforecast.eu for Sunday.

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

UKV 03z looking exceptional for Sunday afternoon, I'm not gonna lie...

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

UKV now on board for Sunday. Shows warm-sector development, looking impressive! Northern England favoured.

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

Cracking Skew-T this, for Sun 1500 for C England.

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

5 minutes ago, Sprites said:

Are you talking about CAPE and Li ? 

CAPE yeah! The front arriving from the west, results in strong southerly winds ahead of the front, advecting a warm moist airmass over us. However, if the front arrives too soon, then less daytime heating, lower CAPE. If the front arrives through the afternoon, we get maximised daytime heating and much higher CAPE. The strong southerly winds ahead of the front will provide strong wind shear, which combined with large CAPE can lead to strong-severe thunderstorms. Which is why this setup is very knife-edge!

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

2 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Anyone else seen Sundays setup? My god that’s looking like a dangerous setup. Best chance of supercells since 2012 or more recently 2018?  I would say so going by the current charts. 

I have seen! Don't want to get my hopes too much as it's only Wednesday. Timing will have to be perfect to maximise severe potential.

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

UKV 15z looks pretty naughty, I wonder if we're underestimating tonights potential? 1000J/Kg of MUCAPE overlaid by 30-40kts DLS is pretty decent historically for elevated thunderstorms. Regardless, some very heavy rainfall in places likely.

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

1 hour ago, CoventryWeather said:

There's been a few reports of a supercell near Birmingham around 3:30pm yesterday. I have a picture showing a scud or potential funnel looking that way at 3:20pm - attached it here to see what people think. Personally thought when I got it it was a scud cloud but discuss yourself. Picture was taken from Foleshill, Coventry looking directly west. 

Having a look at both the image and radar, I'm not really seeing much, if anything, to support a supercell unfortunately. I'd be inclined to go with scud to be honest, as it doesn't seem to resemble a wall-cloud and there doesn't appear to be any obvious rotation.