[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Looks like I'm out chasing after all, heading Reigate or Sevenoaks region. Conditions are better this morning than I had expected.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Very odd question but what are the chances in Paris later would you say because I want a photo of lightning in front of some Disney ride lol?

Uh, not my area of expertise, but looks like a few storms may develop sometime in the evening but that's about all I can give.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Already seeing some rapid convection over NW France, that looks promising for later today.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

19 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Yep. Very good levels of speed shear today. I can see it getting very interesting later on for the SE. Supercell possibilities have even been mentioned on Dans forecast. 

Indeed, I am a little hesitant as for any severe storms you generally want them to stay discrete or semi-discrete and when the mid-levels are fairly saturated, this can be difficult. 

Really want to chase today, but I'm just not sure if I can be bothered, especially since storms could be moving very quickly, talking 40mph+ possibly.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

1 hour ago, viking_smb said:

whats the thoughts on tomorrow night mate please?

Devon, Somerset, S Wales looks best to me at the moment, but quite a lot of uncertainty at the moment. Probably relatively infrequent lightning but should be some.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

25 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’m pretty sure we should have been seeing a lot more activity by now

Yeah I have been thinking the same. That saying looking at the GFS 06z skew-t, the mid-levels do appear to be pretty saturated. I wonder if that is having a negative effect on instability and any lightning.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Nothing much really here, sorry to say this again but I trust your judgement rather than my biased judgement, what are my chances of Storms tonight?

Think you're most at risk from tomorrow morning 6am-ish.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Looks like fairly widespread development from AcCas across the channel. Could be quite a thundery night later on.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

59 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Interested to see what's being seen from this Storm system, possible squall line.

In fact a possible leading stratiform region by the looks of it, these occur in MCS's, favoured when the Storm relative upper-level winds are from the rear to the front of the Storm 

Yep, definite squall line.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

On 15/10/2022 at 14:43, Tamsin said:

Are Staplehurst and Chris taking a break? I would have thought there would be a convective weather forecast today x

I was at the Torro conference with Dan (Staplehurst) on Saturday, therefore no forecast on that day. But I believe they've been quite busy at the moment, and with the risk of storms generally quite low, there haven't been any forecasts. That saying an increased risk of some elevated thunderstorms, particularly middle of this week, so I will keep an eye on things. Some relatively impressive CAPE (For October) coupled with decent DLS, should be a few good storms around, but details yet to be nailed down.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

I'm sure there will be many thunder days to come during Autumn given the above average SSTs, but for any major (large) storm systems I imagine that's more or less it for this year. Been quite a memorable year for coastal southern areas with numerous rounds of elevated thunderstorms during the Summer months, definitely a year I'll remember for a number of reasons. I believe it actually takes us to a slightly above average thunder year!

Going forward as I said there will still a few opportunities for a few decent storms. We're approaching the time of year now where under the correct setup, we can still experience low-topped supercells, an increase (possibly) in funnel clouds/waterspouts along coastal areas and classic cold-front squall lines.

A pleasure as always being involved with everyone on this forum, the Storm & Convective Discussion thread is a lovely place to be with many like-minded weather enthusiasts!

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Safe to say yesterday wasn't too bad! 

Taken near Weymouth. Managed to get down there in time as the most active part of the squall was approaching! In the 2nd photo think I managed to catch a CG just left of middle, but was taking a panorama, so it didn't capture it really.

 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Storms W of Brest, sign of things to come later.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Quite like yesterday I think we will likely see a few surprises! I'm gonna be heading out myself today, maybe around the Yeovil area?

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

1 minute ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Very impressive front to this storm. Its huge - taken on my Sony A7 IV.

That is a monster! That's what happens when you see strong DLS, organising cells into a squall line!

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Think a lot of us have been pleasantly surprised tonight and I think it's a good indication of how volatile the atmosphere is at the moment. Warm, moist air streaming up from the south, with well above average SSTs, cold air aloft with the nearby low and overriding jet. A good thundery period was inevitable at some point!

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Wall cloud?!

Cracking shelf cloud!

WOW! Just heard the loudest most shotgun-like thunder I've ever heard. Jesus.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Lightning towards the IoW.

I have a live RTSP feed going.

Wareham Weather - Weather Cam

WAREHAMWX.CO.UK

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Live RTSP webcam feed of the sky, pointed toward Poole and Bournemouth, using a Reolink 511WA IP Camera

 

Just saw a nice big flash, just to the right of bottom-middle for those interested! Maybe 30s behind the lightning detector.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Also to add, a fair bit more lightning than I expected. Though I'd imagine in this scenario the very strong DLS is making up for the lack of "large" CAPE.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Not sure I can justify another late night chase & if so I might hold off until tomorrow before chasing. Thing is, there are going to be so many opportunities the next few days, you'll have to pick carefully!

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

2 hours ago, joey.g2003@gmail.com said:

Watched the 'storm' at its peak coming over Derby/Belper from Alport Heights. One flash perceived from the edges of vision and a few weak rumbles. Looked pretty cool for a bit though looking south towards the 'hook' area, even did a kind of tiny wallcloud feature feels more humid after this now. Gl to us all for tonight and this week

 

Quite a large wall-cloud and appears to have been a right splitter on radar, so genuinely a good case for a supercell.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Think tomorrow evening/night is more impressive for CAPE/DLS overlap than tonight personally. Very tricky forecast but the ingredients are there for almost anywhere to see a storm.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Definitely benefitting from markedly above-average SSTs too. Might be a thundery week starting tonight.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

 

On 25/08/2022 at 20:50, Stormhog said:

Another pic, this one of the shelf cloud arriving last night, from Seaford. I have a few pictures taken over a couple of minutes, so I'll make a timelapse and post it when it's finished.

Only just seen this... Absolutely amazing photo there, what a memory being down there in Seaford!