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Ben Sainsbury
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Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury
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Some impressive atmospheric profiles being modelled for Saturday, though I can't help but feel like it's very similar to what we had two weekends ago. That saying, I think already at this stage, somewhere is likely to see some active thunderstorms.
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4 minutes ago, swny said:
Really starting to pop up now.
Yep, deep convection now. Also in York.-
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28 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:
So thoughts anyone, does the front seem to be going slower or faster than expected ?
Overnight, the models have toned back on the speed of the front a smidge, so a slightly more widespread risk imo vs yesterday model runs.
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ECM 12z has slowed down the front a little, allowing it to have better engagement with the high Theta-W plume. Has thunderstorms as far south as Peterborough late tomorrow evening.
May have cherry-picked the model, to fit my agenda
Anyway, I'm off to drive up to York now for tomorrow chase. All the best tomorrow for those chasing or in the warning area!
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2 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
Can’t help but have a bad feeling that this may well see the real fireworks mature and explode off after the main ingredients have left the country. Like August 2020 in the North sea and August 2012 (forgot the date). For fast moving setups, there’s too little room for us to be guaranteed something. Unlike the USA, France, Germany etc. Theres too much flattening happening, rather than the trough digging deeper just before our shores to maintain a humid Southerly for a much longer period of time to mix with the overlapping cooler air aloft. I hope I’m wrong however.
Thanks for filling me with confidence before making my drive up to York later this evening
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We're still only taking about a couple hours difference from this being a bigger and more widespread event, so it's still not out the realms of possibility.
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2 hours ago, Supacell said:
It really is racing through on the models. If it speeds up anymore than there will be no heat tomorrow and the 31⁰c being forecast for the southeast will be closer 21⁰c
. As you said earlier though, we probably won't know until tomorrow when that cold front is coming through.
Either way, the cold front should begin to organise over the next 6 hours or so, so hopefully we'll have a better idea on the timing of the front when the 12z runs are out later.
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Timing of the cold front needs to chill, otherwise we're going to be left with nowt at this rate. Looking a very tight affair at the moment.
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1 hour ago, Supacell said:
This is the worry. If the cold front goes through too early it will be a case of severe thunderstorms over the North Sea and near Continent. The slower it moves east, the better.
Very much so. Last 24 hours, models have trended on front moving through a bit quicker. That saying if we're talking severe potential, I'd rather too quick than too slow, as at least we'll have storms in their discrete stage before things get a bit messy.
Hopefully, models trend a bit the other way tomorrow. But even then, I am a little more hopeful that high pressure to our east might be a bit more stubborn and I doubt the models will have a good grasp on timing, even during Sunday itself!
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stormforecast.eu for Sunday.
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UKV 03z looking exceptional for Sunday afternoon, I'm not gonna lie...
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UKV now on board for Sunday. Shows warm-sector development, looking impressive! Northern England favoured.
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Cracking Skew-T this, for Sun 1500 for C England.
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5 minutes ago, Sprites said:
Are you talking about CAPE and Li ?
CAPE yeah! The front arriving from the west, results in strong southerly winds ahead of the front, advecting a warm moist airmass over us. However, if the front arrives too soon, then less daytime heating, lower CAPE. If the front arrives through the afternoon, we get maximised daytime heating and much higher CAPE. The strong southerly winds ahead of the front will provide strong wind shear, which combined with large CAPE can lead to strong-severe thunderstorms. Which is why this setup is very knife-edge!
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2 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
Anyone else seen Sundays setup? My god that’s looking like a dangerous setup. Best chance of supercells since 2012 or more recently 2018? I would say so going by the current charts.
I have seen! Don't want to get my hopes too much as it's only Wednesday. Timing will have to be perfect to maximise severe potential.
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UKV 15z looks pretty naughty, I wonder if we're underestimating tonights potential? 1000J/Kg of MUCAPE overlaid by 30-40kts DLS is pretty decent historically for elevated thunderstorms. Regardless, some very heavy rainfall in places likely.
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1 hour ago, CoventryWeather said:
There's been a few reports of a supercell near Birmingham around 3:30pm yesterday. I have a picture showing a scud or potential funnel looking that way at 3:20pm - attached it here to see what people think. Personally thought when I got it it was a scud cloud but discuss yourself. Picture was taken from Foleshill, Coventry looking directly west.
Having a look at both the image and radar, I'm not really seeing much, if anything, to support a supercell unfortunately. I'd be inclined to go with scud to be honest, as it doesn't seem to resemble a wall-cloud and there doesn't appear to be any obvious rotation.
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6 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
Exactly itwill just be rain and everyone else north will benefit from the storm ...
Convection should be pretty explosive tomorrow, with large 3CAPE (Cape in lowest 3km) so I’d debate it’s better to be in Hampshire than say the Sheffield region. But anyway, have to see!
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17 minutes ago, Azazel said:
You can delete the yellow bit over Hampshire mate just FYI:p
Hampshire may very well be the first place for initiation of surface based activity tomorrow!
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This is what me & @Met4Cast have gone for tomorrow. Tricky forecast but a few places will see some cracking storms.
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Check AROME out for example. Extremely tricky forecast from this evening/tonight and through tomorrow.
AROME would suggest one or two isolated SB storms further west, whereas further east across CS/SE England, some indications of some elevated? storms firing within high Theta-W. Remains to be seen how many elevated thunderstorms form across CS/SE England tonight, but this will have quite a significant impact on where and how strong thunderstorms are likely to be tomorrow.
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I see nowt to be concerned about at this stage the further SE you are. W/NW areas likely to see more cloud with the risk of showers but even then I still expect temperatures to be warm with sunny spells at times. Wouldn’t surprise me for high pressure to remain more dominant than what the model suggest at the moment.
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Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
It's great to hear of all your experiences! For me personally, since a very young age I've always been fascinated by thunderstorms. Something about witnessing thunderstorms makes me feel alive. Overhead thunder has only scared me on a handful of occasions; that saying when I went chasing in the States earlier this year, those storms there were a different breed and scared me on another level.