Ben Sainsbury

Got this one too in a great spot in Can Pastilla, Mallorca. Just needs to zoom out a bit. https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/spain/balearic-islands/can-pastilla-mallorca.html

Anyone have any webcams they're aware of in the Balearics? I've got a mate in Ibiza at the moment, but his hangover is probably preventing him from looking outside for me... Only I've got is this so far, looks a bit gusty. 【LIVE】 Webcam Ibiza - Sant Antoni de Portmany | SkylineWebcams WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM Travel to the Balearic Islands with our Ibiza webcam on Sant Antoni de Portmany beach! Spend your crazy summer in Europe's most vibrant destination!

Keeping you happy then @Alderc 2.0

Classic day of sunny spells and thundery showers across large parts of the UK today. If we get good sunny spells across Eastern half of the UK, then storms may be able to utilise modest speed shear and may represent some organisation. Should be a reasonable amount of lightning about today.

That is a fantastic shout. I’ll have to look more into the 2016 event. At first glance maybe 2016 shows bit more digging south of the trough which may allow a slightly greater advection of hot air towards the southeast.

If UKV 9z is anything to go by could be a very thundery day tomorrow across the SE. AROME 6z was a shift northwards too.

The stormforecast.eu shows some interesting probability charts for the far SE. Shows how much uncertainty there is at this stage as this has a 50-75% lightning probability stretching NE from Somerset to Lincolnshire, despite the majority of our main convective models showing very little. Not sure I've seen a 5-10% 2cm+ hail line over any part of the UK at any point this year? If we can improve on confidence with regards to the far SE seeing something, this would definitely fall within my chase territory.

How nice of the ARPEGE to follow the N France coastline... Really is painful living in the UK! If it's any consolation the NetWx MR has an MCS tearing across SE England in a 35m/s sheared environment. Don't give up till it's over I guess!

The 06z runs this morning bring S/SE England agonisingly close to some pretty spectacular thunderstorms (a positive trend vs the last 24/48 hours), given the CAPE and DLS overlap. We're definitely within the realms of this possibility, should the boundary of the warm airmass advect 50-100 miles or so further northwards. Just a few more positive adjustments needed and I wouldn't rule it out given the underestimation of the strength of the heat dome over Central Europe. However, as it stands this is screaming the dreaded, Kent Clipper.

Seems to be on the boundary between the warm airmass to the south and the cold airmass coming down from the north. Where that boundary lies there could be some pretty torrential thunderstorms. A lot of the models have these over the Channel/N France, but UKV has consistently shown these developing over the UK. Some very strong deep layer shear being modelled by UKV, with some large CAPE to the S/SE, so some organised storms are possible but need greater confidence before we can firm up on the details.

I have also decided to bail on a chase tonight given the uncertainties... to add further doubt into your mind

This seems to be a brilliant opportunity to get some very important data.

Because elevated convection is one of the biggest challenges in forecasting at the moment I hope they didn't use the word frequent lightning... eek!

Yep, you do make a good point! Although, always easier to say in hindsight

Judging by the models, I still think anywhere east of Cambridge is within a good chance at some lively thunderstorms tonight. Disappointing I know for the rest of us...

This is the matrix for the warning, which only suggests a low impact scenario. I completely get you though, and normally I'm not the biggest fan of the Met Office warnings either. But I think given what the models were showing, this was a reasonable issuance of a low-end yellow warning. We can agree to disagree, I always respect your opinion.

Because torrential rain/flash-flooding and the occasional lightning strike produced by the storms can pose considerable risks to the general public during rush-hour.

Was only expecting sporadic strikes for the stuff this morning, so I don't think it was too far from general expectations. It does appear like the tongue instability struggled to advect far enough northwards however, with any lightning really being confined to the channel.

Quite possibly but also, the thunderstorms at 06:00-12:00 will pose a risk to those travelling to work during rush hour etc. Whereas overnight thunderstorms pose much less of a risk to safety.

For similar setups like tomorrow night, elevated thunderstorms generally are most active across far SE UK (East Sussex/Kent). Therefore, I'd like to think you're in a pretty good position as it stands!

As it stands, I'd expect any lightning would be to the south and east of you and moving away all the time. Therefore, the risk of any lightning overhead is low but not nil.

They would be moving up from the south, so yes I think you might do quite well if all goes to plan. I'll have a think about whether it's worth chasing, but if I were Eastbourne would be a good shout.

18th May last year exceeded my expectations with regards to westward extent of lightning. I'd have to look for similarities between tomorrow night and this event.

Having a look at the models, tomorrow morning I have questions over how frequent on lightning will be. I'm expecting lightning to be relatively infrequent, but further S, say in the vicinity of IOW, (where instability is likely to be higher before fizzling out) there may be more frequent lightning for a time. Tomorrow night is the main show, albeit only for the SE/E England. My best guess for a good lightning show would anywhere NNE-E of Brighton. Sporadic lightning further west, but at this point the majority of lightning will always be within the high Theta-W airmass.

Significantly better set of 06z ensembles vs the previous 0z, 18z and 12z respectively. Hopefully this is a trend going forward, for those that chase hot weather charts!