Ben Sainsbury

I'm going to bed, if we aren't issued a Level 1; I would have had enough of this nonsense.

If you compare the radar and the cape + Li charts the thunderstorms that are roaming about in France is only supported by 1000 cape and positive LI's?

Got that thundery feeling today, even the excitement of expecting storms is good enough for me!

And the charts go bang; the cape is all gone

If this setup did occur how severe would the thunderstorms be? Anywhere near US status?

Can't get too excited;), but we'll have to see whether it develops or not.

What is up with the Charts!

That squall line is incredible; I'd love to be in north London right now, going to check cams.

Storms are always weak over Bristol and when they continue east they develop but one hell of a squall line on the radar!

Surprised there hasnt been much in east anglia today

Lots of cells developing around me, keeping my ears open!

However no more sferics recently!

Just going to mention sferics near Swindon; hope Midlands eastwards gets some good action.

Intensity of the storm has decreased but I expect all showers to develop as the move east!

If you could tell me what settings to put my radio on, maybe I could help you?

Not too sure, may have heard 1 rumble, but has just stop tipping it down.

Storms going mad!

Thunderstorm developing north of Bristol.

squall line developing near exeter; bottom right of picture?

Only a little light drizzle here currently!

Watching two cells, one to my west and one to my south!

Storms developing dramatically now in the SW.

Showers beginning to spread in for SW England now and I expect these to develop as they move further east.

We all know Netweather is better but Tony Gilbert of ukweatherworld has produce his convective forecast for today into tomorrow: Probably the most conducive severe weather outlook so far this spring. Some good parallels made by both WRF and GFS models; Unseasonably deep upper trough moves eastward enhancing environmental lift to both UK & Ireland. Strong moderately divergent jet stream arcs cyclonically enhancing strong dynamic lift within the front left exit region in line with the surface cold front. Strong PV (Positive Vorticity) aloft aligns well with the frontal boundary. A number of phases of convection to deal with here; Early general thundery showers possible over central and NE UK today as some pre frontal troughing expected to develop. Later this afternoon Ireland sees a developing vigorous cold front bringing moderate or possibly stronger thunderstorms within the southern sector. Prime risk strong gusts and small hail. By mid night the cold front (possibly split) heads into UK mainland initiating further isolated thunderstorms with the additional risk of tornado development primarily southern counties 00Z-06Z Sat. Conditions associated with this risk include 45 deg veer at low levels with around 25kts 0-3km shear. Helicity values will therefore be sufficient for tornado development and sustained low level mesocyclones. The 500 mb jet is acutely divergent allowing for enhanced deep updrafts to form. Conditions are current borderline to supercell parameters. Reasoning for such development also lies with the depth and speed at which the upper trough transits eastward. The current overlay of cold pooling aloft might suggest large embedded hail reports overnight locally. Many parts will see sferic activity today though not prolific in nature. The prime interest here will be with well defined internal storm structure and mesocycone development. We will be working with lean CAPE values so the outlook is based on a high shear low instability scenario. So some caution needs to be addressed if the basic level of CAPE in not realised. Note: He has upgraded tornado risk from slight to moderate risk

squall line developing? Off the coast of Weston-super-mare