Skeggy Winter Storm
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Posts posted by Skeggy Winter Storm
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yeah am watching wouldnt mind some of that over crimboNice programme on quest on sky about snow!!!!
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well said i totally agree the weather will always be one step ahead of the models Never the other way roundEveryone needs to snap out of it. Why oh why is it so hard to remember a few basics before reaching for the razor and baring your wrists.
1) The models do not dictate the weather. The weather at the particular period in time the model data is gathered dictates the models.
2) The models are not better at predicting mild. The UK is more often than not mild so predicting a more likely outcome inevitably leads to a better 'success' rate.
3) FI will ALWAYS be FI until we develop computers that are orders of magnitude more powerful and gather data covering more of the entire atmosphere.
3) (a) Has no body learned anything from the last couple of weeks? Weather can only be predicted accurately a few days ahead, especially in the UK.
On the positive side this is the best time of year for mild. The weather allows people to travel to see loved ones and may prevent the UK slipping into a triple dip recession due to reduced economic output from lost spending over the Christmas period.
Also the 'big' winters of 62/63 and 47 began after Christmas so plenty of time yet. Would everyone please cheer the heck up, stop having such a short memory and think of the bigger picture. Much love.
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what you got to remember the models will always be a step behind mother nature never the other way roundany chance they could turn colder as quickas its going to turn milder?
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swap your snow for our rain lolWell, just had second dumping of snow :-( Another 9 inches - tis not fun digging out a 30 metre drive. Roll on some warm rain!
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I would take 7 to 10 days of less cold Atlantic weather if we get more cold/ snowy chances again :-D
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Its nice to see FI eye candy again am off to sleep bit easierOK, if the extreme FI came off for Xmas, Id be happy lol. Night all.
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According to the Daily Star blizzards r on the way this week talk about rub it in pfft
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gna join u AAAAAAAARRRRGGGGHHHHHH!!!AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That's better! ...........gonna take me ages to pick these toys up now :-(
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I got that feeling this winters gna end up like last year very dissapointing really just before the Easterly all looked now tbh looks pants
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wouldnt mind some of this thats some cold
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here here!! Well said thats exactly what i was going to say few mins ago 1 post says thing then next post says something else i know no body knows whats gna happen its like you said. Hit the nail on the head there mateAs a complete novice reading the model thread, it just comes across as a battle of egos trying desperately to out-do each other and prove that their version of the weather will be the one to win out.
Quite frankly, there is very little of educational or forecasting value in that thread and, until people eat a bit of humble,pie, I have a feeling it will remain that way.
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so what happens if a very cold spell does happen people now will think it aint true and eceryone will get caught out and it could spell disasterA good thing to come out of this might be that people will now disregard these headlines, which even when cold spells are going to happen, are ridiculously exaggerated.
Unfortunately as Mark says above, the actual headlines are going to be flood related by circa Dec 17.
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Ive come out of my moody slump now onwards and upwards gettin ready for round 3
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Maybe....just maybe we will get to March and all look back at a lovely winter we just had and what was we worried about
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I did think we would get downgrades from that ECM on wed but but to fall apart like they are never saw it comingI amazed how quickly things have fallen apart from a cold POV!! Im actually stunned a couple of days ago it was game on, now look at us!! The northern hemisphere charts look hideous http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2012120812/UN144-21.GIF?08-17!!! How zonal a pattern does that look? All that vortex energy near greenland spitting out low after low, lol quite hideous!! I think my initial CET guess was about 6.3 i think then changed it too 2.3 wish id stuck with former as this pattern looks entrenched!! All those CPC charts posted constantly showing northern blocking lol, bugger em!!
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We will prob see good cold charts for the week after next on sunday/monday we will get excited again then nearer the time they dissapear its been doing this for ages now bit of a stuck record
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yes i totally agree those poor people in the flooded areas i bet they was a bit happier about a colder outlook now if the atlantic comes back in its just gna add to the flood problems esp now coming up to xmasWell I hope what's being shown in the GFS and ECM runs this morning doesn't happen because there is still surface water hanging about in farmers fields and blocking country lanes here in my area. Worrying times ahead after this ridiculous turn around if it verifies.
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Saying winter is over after 1 bad run is silly really for eg when you buy a lotto ticket you dont rip ticket up if the first numbers not yours saying sod it i aint gna win nothing just stupid
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Still got snow on ground from last nite with sum ice its not really thawing still feels cold cloudy with a hazy sun
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Lol they got to after this :-DI wonder if the Met will come off the fence this evening?
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Just had another heavy snow shower everythings white yay
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he's just saying theres two ways it could goHI all, my very first post and have been watching and learning models since last october, been a great journey so far and im fascinated with posts you all put up on here and how `the cookie might crumble` one way or another... i have been keeping a close eye on the trend that is setting up for next week and its looking pretty cold from a model point of view..... However could some one explain why the met office have posted this on the bbc weather website not just 20 minutes ago ... http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20618018 they seem to think that it may turn milder .
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Heavy snow shower here finally
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good Summary Gibby as always mateGood evening. Here is the evening review of the 12zs from GFS, UKMO and ECM for today Monday December 3rd 2012.
All models show a broad WNW flow over Britain tonight and tomorrow which turns towards the North on Wednesday. Following a ridge of High pressure on Wednesday night a new Low pressure area slips SE down the North sea by Friday with a further surge of cold North winds. Then a strong ridge of High pressure settles near Southern Britain over the weekend. The weather through the week will see showers, turning wintry by Wednesday. Rain moving SE on Thursday will be followed by further wintry showers on Friday before a cold and frosty weekend looks likely.
GFS then shows another small Low slip SE down the North Sea on Saturday and on into Europe on Sunday. This is the trigger for pressure to rise close to NW Britain which becomes absorbed by a large High over Northern Europe setting up a cold and wintry Easterly flow by the beginning of FI. Through FI itself this cold East flow dominates throughout, gradually becoming more unstable with sleet and snow showers near Eastern coasts becoming more prevalent later with more prolonged snow in the SW as milder air knocks on the door.
The GFS Ensembles show a cold spell is on the way with some snowfall possible at times. 850's stay below normal throughout with the operational on the lower side of the pack but not without support. The control run falls off a cliff towards the end of FI with some intense cold should that verify. There is though as usual at such range a lot of spread in the pack towards the end of FI.
The Jet Stream shows the flow tilting from its West to East flow to a more NW to SE flow taking it down to the Med before it turns East over Southern Europe. The Jet ridges High in the Atlantic in a week or so before turning South over the UK and maintaining its East flow over Southern Europe.
UKMO for midday on Sunday shows High pressure over Southern Britain and Northern France with a frosty and cold spell likely in the South but some bright daytime sunshine to compensate. In the North a milder SW flow is evident and though there will be more cloud it would likely stay dry. Good summary Gibby as always
ECM for the same time point shows High pressure too near SE Britain with a weak SW flow bringing slightly milder air for a while before Low pressure slips SE down over Denmark with rising pressure behind it over the Faroe Islands which becomes absorbed by High pressure over Northern Europe setting up a large cold block over Scandinavia with a raw and cold East wind developing over Southern Britain with snow showers running in to North Sea coastal counties later. The run closes with high pressure stretching from Northern Scotland to Northern Russia with a cold if mostly dry ENE flow bringing very cold conditions to the UK with frost by night and snow flurries in places.
In Summary the odds are increasing on an outbreak of cold for the UK. It's a rather messy picture to get there, though all three models show a similar route as High pressure builds strongly to the North and NE with a continental blast of cold air and the chance of some snow looking very possible from early next week onwards.
Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted