Somerset Squall

Rosa has done well to last this long. Granted, Rosa is now only a 25kt tropical depression but it has persisted as one for nearly 24hrs in the face of a massive 50kts of shear. Just when Rosa looked like it was done for this morning, another convective burst fired up over the LLC. This has since sheared away again leaving the LLC exposed. Rosa cannot survive for much longer in such a hosile environment, and is expected to become a remnant low tonight as it drifts westwards.

Rosa is holding it's own against the shear this morning. Intensity is 40kts. Rosa maintains a deep area of convection slightly displaced from the partially exposed LLC. However, dry air is going to join the high shear, and Rosa is expected to weaken to a tropical depression within the next 12hrs then to a remnant low soon after.

September just a blip, with October coming in well above average, and the fifth month of 2012 to have 100+mm of rainfall. January: 56.2mm February: 14.0mm March: 17.7mm April 128.4mm May: 40.6mm June: 112.5mm July: 129.2mm August: 106.8mm September: 51.5mm October: 105.4mm 2012 so far: 762.3mm

Rosa peaked at 50kts but is now weakening as shear rises. Intensity has fallen to 45kts as convection gets displaced from the LLC. Rosa has been moving very slowly west-southwestward over the last day, but Rosa should turn toqards the northwest soon. Rosa should continue to weaken as shear rises further, however, if Rosa keeps moving to the west-southwest, it may duck under the strongest shear, at least for a time.

Nilam continues to strengthen as shear has eased a bit allowing more centralised convection to form. Sustained winds are now at 55kts. The cyclone is very close to landfall, which should occur within the next 6hrs. Convection is already spreading inland across eastern India.

02B has become Tropical Cyclone Nilam, with sustained winds currently at 45kts. Some moderate shear continues to affect Nilam, placing the bulk of the convection west of the LLC. JTWC have joined IMD's forecast track ad Nilam has wobbled back eastwards today meaning a landfall in Sri Lanka is less likely, especially as a NW/SE orientated ridge is building northeast of TC Nilam. Moderate shear will prevent significant intensity gains but Nilam should strengthen a little more prior to landfall south of Chennai, India.

Tropical Storm Rosa has formed in the East Pacific, well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Sustained winds are currently at 35kts. The storm has spun up rather quickly, and is well organised with excellent banding flanking the convection covered LLC. Rosa has another 24-36hrs to strengthen before shear rises and waters cool on the west-northwesterly track. As Rosa is so far out to sea, it is of no threat to land.

In the USA yes, but let's not forget the 69 people this storm has killed in the Caribbean.

http://tidesonline.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8518750+The+Battery,+NY

Now at 12.75ft at Battery, just how much higher will it go?!

Smashing the record of 11.2ft set in 1821! Now at 12.09ft! http://tidesonline.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8518750+The+Battery,+NY

The second tropical cyclone of the 2012 North Indian Ocean cyclone season has formed just east of Sri Lanka. Sustained winds are currently at 40kts. Ridging to the north will steer 02B westward onto the coast of Sri Lanka in about 12hrs time according to JTWC, but IMD forecast the ridge to be a lot weaker allowing a sharp turn towards the northwest, missing Sri Lanka and making landfall south of Chennai, India. If the IMD solution is correct, 02B will be over water for longer and will strengthen more than the JTWC solution which takes 02B over Sri Lanka then southern India, a track largely over land. The upper level environment is mixed, with good upper level divergence (causing rising, unstable air and more convection) being offset by moderate to high shear. However, 02B seems to have fought off the shear pretty well today, so the amount of strengthening will be mostly governed by track IMO. JTWC: IMD: http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.pdf

Son-Tinh is unravelling as it moves into SW China, and JTWC have issued their last advisory. Death toll and damage total for Vietnam is not yet clear, but the storm has killed 27 people in the Philippines last week. http://www.deccanherald.com/content/288569/typhoon-son-tinh-batters-china.html

Indeed, Sandy is at 75kts. May even make cat 2 again IMO, the shear has lessened, and Sandy is moving over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

Good analysis there Iceberg, Sandy indeed looks more tropical currently with convection building near the centre (something Sandy has been lacking over the last day). Ive seen the model predictions of landfall between 930-940mb being regarded as overcooked- looks like this could turn out not to be the case.

Son-Tinh has weakened to 90kts as it approaches Hanoi, Vietnam. The storm is expected to make landfall today and then push north then west as it rounds the western side of the subtropical ridge. There is a chance Son-Tinh could re-emerge into the Gulf Of Tonkin bit continued shear argues against re-strengthening if this occurs. Instead, Son-Tinh should dissipate at this time.

Sandy is the deadliest storm of the season with the toll now at 48, surpassing Isaac. And she really isn't done yet

Son-Tinh has rapidly intensified to a high end cat 3 status, with sustained winds now at 110kts. Son-Tinh has benifitted greatly from enhanced outflow over the last 24hrs, resulting in the rapid strengthening. Son-Tinh is a fairly compact system with a well defined eye. The typhoon is not long away from landfall in northern Vietnam. The only saving grace is Son-Tinh is fairly small, because the winds will certainly pack a damaging punch now.

Sandy's convection has been sheared well north of the expanding centre of circulation. Sandy is barely a hurricane (winds are now at 65kts), and will likely continue to lose tropical characteristics over the next few days, but will probably deepen in the process. Sandy has killed 42 people in the Caribbean, and I fear that toll may yet increase.

Son-Tinh has become a category 1 typhoon with sustained winds now at 65kts. Strong outflow and low shear should allow Son-Tinh to become a cat 2 prior to landfall in 36hrs time.

Son-Tinh has moved out into the South China Sea. Son-Tinh is on the verge of becoming a typhoon, as sustained winds are now at 60kts. The storm has a well established central dense overcast feature with good banding features. Son-Tinh is expected to strengthen further under low shear and warm sea temps and is expected to become a cat 2 typhoon prior to landfall in Northern Vietnam. Flooding and wind damage is very likely in this area.

Murjan has crossed the coast and is moving further inland. Dry air coupled with passage over land is weakening Murjan fast. There shouldn't be much left of Murjan by morning. JTWC have issued their last advisory.

Tony has become extratropical, and NHC have issued the last advisory as a result.

Dry air intrusion has capped Murjan's intensity at 35kts. The storm retains a well defined LLC but the convection is quite shallow in relation to it. Murjan is hours away from landfall where dissipation should occur quite quickly over Somalia.