Somerset Squall

Dumile is likely peaking this morning, at 75kts. Convection on the northern side of the eye is rather shallow, and sea temps are falling along track. Shear is rising, and Dumile will likely begin extratropical transition very soon as it turns to the southeast.

Freda has been dropped from the outlook as the system has continued to slip southeast instead of turning the west, and has become extratropical. redevelopment is no longer anticipated.

The first tropical storm of the 2013 West Pacific season has formed in the Sulu Sea, just west of the southern Philippine islands. Tropical Storm Sonamu has sustained winds of 35kts. The storm has a small area of deep convection peristing over the LLC. Shear is low, and waters are warm at the low lattitude of 9 degrees north that Sonamu is currently sitting at. Ridging to the north will steer Sonamu westwards along the extreme south of the South China Sea, eventually towards Malaysia and Thailand. I wonder if this storm will achieve the rare feat of moving into the North Indian Ocean? We shall see.

JTWC issued their last warning on Freda yesterday but are mentioning the storm in their significant tropical weather advisory, classifying Freda as subtropical (they do not issue warnings on subtropical cyclones). Convection is far removed from the centre which is broad and ill defined. The convection resides southeast of New Caledonia, with the centre over New Caledonia itself, bringing gusty winds here. JTWC note that while Freda is currently subtropical, it is undergoing extratropical transition as the cyclone is accquiring frontal characteristics, and cold, dry air is wrapping around the system's current marginally warm core. They assess the chances of Freda becoming fully tropical again as low.

A large, rugged eye is now visable on satelite imagery, and sustained winds have risen to 65kts. Dumile has not strengthened as quickly as originally forecast due to unforseen moderate shear. Strong poleward outflow as negated the effect of the shear a little and allowed Dumile to slowly intensify over the last day or two. Dumile could strengthen a little more before shear rises further and sea temps cool along track, initiating extratropical transition.

Indeed, this upcoming pattern produces my least favourite weather in Winter. I can't imagine anything worse than mild, cloudy and dull. But if it produces the chance for the waters to finally go down around here and turn my 25 mile journey into work back to the normal 13 miles, and the distance to my local pub back to the normal 1.5 miles from the current 9 miles, I'll take it! LOL. I also relish the thought of not having do do part of my journey by tractor when I want to go anywhere.

Dumile has strengthened over the last 24hrs. Sustained winds are now at 55kts. The cyclone has some deep convection over the LLC, flanked by curved banding features. Shear is low and waters are warm, so Dumile should continue to strengthen over the next day or so as it heads south towards La Reunion.

Shear has battered Freda through the day, exposing the LLC to view northwest of the remaining convection. Sustained winds have fallen to 40kts. Freda is producing heavy rains over New Caledonia presently. The future for Freda is far from certain. What appears most likely at present is further weakening in the short term, with tracking towards the southeast. Ridging is expected to build in to Freda's south, forcing the weak cyclone towards the west to some degree. If this occurs, Freda may find itself in a lower shear environment in a few days time, and remain over marginally warm sea temps. This could allow for some slight re-strengthening. However, this idea depends highly on the westward turn materialising (it is still far from certain and there is a lot of model disagreement), and on Freda not dissipating in the high shear over the next day or two.

07S has stengthened overnight, been given the name Dumile by MeteoFrance, and reached an intensity of 45kts according to JTWC. Both agencies agree on a track southwards over the coming days, and agree on some decent strengthening too. Dumile has some pretty deep convection near the LLC, indicative of high moisture content in the vicinity of the cyclone. Shear is low to moderate, sea temps are warm, and outflow is impressive. Therefore, I think JTWC's forecast peak of 100kts is a fair one. La Reunion and neighbouring islands need to closely watch Dumile, as it appears they are in the cyclone's path.

December not quite stealing November's title as westtest month, but coming a very close second. The seventh out of the twelve calendar months to have 100mm+ rainfall. Staggering. The year has a whole started off dry, with February and March being particularly dry. The floodgates opened spectacularly in April, ending any fears of drought. The rest of the months were exceptionally wet with May and September being the only exceptions with some slight relief in those months. January: 56.2mm February: 14.0mm March: 17.7mm April 128.4mm May: 40.6mm June: 112.5mm July: 129.2mm August: 106.8mm September: 51.5mm October: 105.4mm November: 150.7mm December: 148.8mm 2012 total: 1061.8mm, needless to say, very much above average.

Freda has weakened through the day. Winds have fallen to 80kts as shear rises over the cyclone. Freda will continue to weaken as it heads south into cooler water, and shear remains high. New Caledonia still needs to watch Freda as the cyclone gets very near to the country's southwest, but Freda should be a shadow of the beast she was by then.

Tropical Cyclone 07S has formed several hundred miles north of La Reunion and northeast of northern Madagascar. 07S has struggled as an invest over the last several days under heavy wind shear, but shear has relaxed over the LLC today allowing deep convection to persist and expand in size over the centre. Intensity is 35kts. 07S is expected to strengthen, perhaps rapidly, over the next few days as sea temps are warm, shear now low and outflow excellent. La Reunion should closely watch 07S as it appears that the island will see 07S brush very near in a few days time as 07S is expected to move southwards along the west side of a ridge to the east.

Freda has strengthened slightly to 105kts. The severe cyclone has not changed much in appearance today, with a rather large and ragged eye still clear to see within the central dense overcast. Freda may strengthen a little more over the next day before reaching cooler waters and higher shear west of New Caledonia.

45kts was Mitchell's peak. Mitchell has now degenerated into a remnant low over cooler waters and increasing shear. Regeneration isn't expected as Mitchell continues to slide south out of the tropics.

Freda has been upgraded to a severe tropical cyclone by BOM. Sustained winds are now at 100kts according to JTWC, which is cat 3 on the SS scale. Further strengthening is expected.

Freda has rapidly strengthened this afternoon, and now has sustained winds of 80kts. The eye has developed quite nicely now, and Freda should continue to deepen as it moves to the south over the coming days.

Freda continues to strengthen, and sustained winds are now at 55kts according to JTWC. The storm has a central dense overcast with the beginnings of an eye trying to form, and excellent banding wrapping healthily around the system. Freda is benifitting from excellent outflow, low shear and very warm sea temperatures. These factors suggest further intensification, perhaps rapid. JTWC expect a peak of 100kts prior to Freda reaching cooler water. Freda should continue tracking southwards along the western periphery of a ridge to the east, and then eventually move southeastwards as a trough approaches from Australia. This means Freda could be approacing New Caledonia by this coming Thursday, but the storm should be quickly weakening at this stage due to cooler waters and higher shear associated with the approaching trough.

Mitchell has strengthened to 45kts. The cyclone retains a small, tightly wound LLC with a small area of intense convection covering it. Mitchell could strengthen a little more over the next 12 hours, but is likely near peak intensity as the cyclone is not far from sliding into cooler waters.

Yep the first one in Australian waters, and now named Mitchell by BOM.

Tropical Cyclone 06S has formed in the southeast Indian Ocean, a few hundred miles northwest of Learmonth, NW Australia. Intensity is 35kts. The cyclone is small but has deep convection over the tightly wound LLC. Shear is low to moderate, and outflow is good. In addition, sea temps are plenty warm enough for some intensification. Ridging to the east is expected to push 06S south-southwestwards, eventually towards cooler waters. Until 06S reaches these waters in about 24-36hrs, it should strengthen, perhaps quite quickly given it's small size.

Wukong has degenerated into a remnant low again. Shear has removed the convection from the increasingly distorted LLC. Regneration is not expected as the low continues southwestwards towards the Malay Peninsula.

Now upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Freda by Fiji Met. Freda looks very impressive on satellite imagery, with excellent banding features.

Tropical Cyclone 05P, the second of the South Pacific season 2012-13, has formed near the Solomon Islands, in the Coral Sea. Sustained winds are 35kts. 05P has some decent convection over the centre and strong banding surrounding it. 05P will likely intensify over the coming days as shear remains low and waters warm for at least the next 72hrs. Ridging to the east and troughing to the west of 05P will ensure a northerly steering flow, causing 05P to move southwards over the next several days. This will eventually take 05P over cool waters and into higher shear by day 4. Before that, JTWC estimate 05P will peak at 80kts.

Wukong has made a very weak comeback this evening. The remnant low has been upgraded to a 25kt tropical depression as it moves though the South China Sea (SCS). Convection has returned over the LLC, which has become better defined, helped by good poleward outflow. However, shear associated with the northeasterly cold surge across the SCS is prohibitive to significant strengthening. Wukong's feeble second life is expected to be a short one for this reason as the tropical depression wanders west-southwestwards.

Wukong has dissipated over the central Philippines. Shear increased earlier than anticipated, and coupled with land interaction, this rapidly destroyed the LLC and it's associated convection.