Somerset Squall

Felleng has further intensified and has been upgraded to an Intense Tropical Cyclone by MeteoFrance. Sustained winds are now 105kts, cat 3 on SS scale. The eye is large, but well defined. Felleng has about another 24hrs to strengthen further before outflow weakens and shear starts to slowly rise.. Rainbands from Felleng could affect La Reunion, despite Felleng being forecast to slide southwards midway between Madagascar and La Reunion., keeping the strongest winds and heaviest rains away from land..

Felleng has rapidly intensified this afternoon. Winds are now 90kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. JTWC now expect Felleng to peak at 115kts (cat 4).

Felleng has strengthened further overnight, and sustained winds are now at 65kts, a cat 1 hurricane equivalent on the SS scale. An eye has developed in the central dense overcast feature- which is pretty circular (indicative of very low shear). The eye is not all that well defined currently, but I would be surprised if that remains the case for long. The environment supports further intensification, perhaps rapid. Felleng is about 12 hours away from making the southward turn. The turn is expected to be quite sharp as the ridge to the south re-orientates north to south to Felleng's east.

Felleng is looking much more impressive this evening. Sustained winds are now at 55kts. The cyclone has expanding convection and curved banding features. Won't be long before an eye develops IMO. The conditions are certainly very favourable currently, with low shear and excellent outflow.

13S has moved westwards over the last couple of days, without much development. However, the storm now seems like it is strengthening in response to reduced shear and strong outflow. Intensity has risen to 40kts, and the cyclone has been named Felleng. Felleng, in latest satellite imagery, has much more expansive convection and increased convective banding, signs of a maturing system. Felleng is expected to continue heading westwards along the north side of a ridge for the next couple of days followed by a turn to the south just east of Madagascar as Felleng reaches the western periphery of the steering ridge. Felleng is likely to bring very heavy rains to the east coast of Madagascar, but if the southward turn happens too late, then Felleng may make landfall- and the cyclone is expected to become intense. Both JTWC and MeteoFrance agree on a turn south just off the coast however.

Garry has nearly completed extratropical transition. JTWC have issued their final warning as Garry is expected to be fully extratropical within the next 12hrs.

Yeah, can't grumble though LOL. The one and only time I saw thundersnow was the famous event from 28th Jan 2004. Will never forget that weather event! Thankfully my home is not at risk, but I certainly don't relish the possibility of being completely stranded for two weeks again like I was in November. Yeah, I think there will be too

Thunderstorm? Well I wasn't expecting that!! A few flashes and loud booms of thunder, torrential rain too. What a weather week! Snow and Thunder!

Tropical Cyclone 13S has formed, several hundred miles east of northern Madagascar. Winds are currently at 35kts. The cyclone has developed in a marginally favourable environment of warm sea temps, fair poleward outflow but moderate to high shear. These conditions are expected to remain similar over the next couple of days, so 13S will find it difficult to strengthen significantly in this time frame. Thereafter, shear is expected to ease, allowing for greater intensification. The cyclone is heading westwards currently along the northern side of a steering ridge to the south. In about 4 days time, 13S should reach the western extent of the ridge and turn southwestwards. At this point, 13S will be in a favourable environment for strengthening and will be very close to northeast Madagascar, so we will need to keep an eye on this cyclone.

Garry is slipping southeastwards out of the tropics and weakening under heavy wind shear. Intensity is down at 55kts. The circulation is broadening and distorting as a result of the windshear, and convection is displaced to the southeast of the LLC. Extratropical transition will begin soon.

Garry has strengthened further to 85kts, a cat 2 hurricane equivalent on the SS scale. Although Garry has strengthened more than anticipated, the cyclone should begin to weaken later today as shear rises over the system. A building ridge to the east should force Garry to turn south soon too, making the cyclone move over cooler water. The cooler water and increased shear will weaken Garry, before initiating extratropical transition.

Garry has continued to strengthen. Sustained winds are now 75kts. Garry's eye has been briefly visible on satellite imagery, but is now cloud obscured. Garry should weaken soon as shear rises again later tomorrow.

Garry has unexpectedly strengthened overnight. The severe cyclone has developed a central dense overcast and tightly wrapped banding. Sustained winds have reached 65kts. The intensification has occured as Garry has found a pocket of lower shear and outflow has vastly improved.

Shear has been stronger than expected and has weakened Garry to 40kts as the cyclone has turned southeast. Convection has been sheared away from the now partially exposed LLC. Shear is not expected to let up over the next day or so, so Garry is going to find it difficult to restrengthen. Shear will rise even further in about 36hrs, and sea temps will cool along track. Garry is expected to begin extratropical transition as a result.

The remnant low of Oswald has been given a MEDIUM chance of becoming a TC again by JTWC. The remnant low is holding up well, inland over the Cape York Peninsula, and could come very close to the coast over the next day or so. BOM mention also the possibility of Ex-Oswald emerging into the Coral Sea. It'll be interesting to see if Ex-Oswald becomes a tropical cyclone again.

Very heavy snow back again, rivalling last night in intensity. Was thawing slightly but not any more

After a slightly drier overnight period, it's snowing very heavily here again this morning, a little surprised as I was sure it would've cleared by now.

12S has become Tropical Cyclone Peta overnight, with sustained winds now at 35kts. Peta has a central dense overcast feature and more pronounced banding features this morning. The cyclone has dipped southwestwards and is making landfall east of Karratha this morning, so further strengthening is unlikely, especially as shear will rise over Peta when it emerges back over waters. Heavy rains are the primary concern from Peta.

Snow eased off over the last hour but is coming down heavy again, as another narrow band of precipitation moves in from the southeast directly over my area. It seems like my location is a magnet for it at the moment!

Tropical Cyclone 12S has formed just off the Pilbara coast of NW Australia, and is located northwest of Port Hedland and northeast of Karratha. Intensity is 30kts. The cyclone has a modest amount of deep convection near the LLC. 12S is expected to strengthen a little over the next 24hrs before land interaction on the west-southwesterly track causes the cyclone to weaken again. As 12S weakens and emerges over water again, shear is expected to rise, meaning 12S will not recover long term and instead dissipate over the southeast Indian Ocean.

Garry has slowly intensified over the last 36hrs. Sustained winds have reached 50kts. Garry has been fighting moderate shear throughout today which has slowed strengthening. This shear, though not especially damaging to Garry, will continue to cap large intensification gains. Garry is still expected to strengthen modestly over the next 48hrs before sea temps cool along track and shear rises to destructive levels.

Snow easing here now, that intense band really delivered though. Went from not settling to a covering in less than half hour

Some very heavy snow here now, wasn't pitching before but definitely is now. Huge flakes. Sat right under the intense narrow band on the radar.

Oswald has become a remnant low over the Cape York Peninsula. Regeneration is not expected as the low remains over land.

Tropical Cyclone Oswald has formed in the Gulf Of Carpentaria, Australia, this morning, 90 miles east-northeast of Mornington Island. Oswald has sustained winds of 35kts currently. The cyclone has a huge amount of convection associated with it, which is lashing the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula with very heavy rainfall. Sky News Weather referred to the low that is now Oswald in their world weather forecast yesterday as having the potential to dump a whopping 500mm of rain to this region of Australia in the coming week (that's 20 inches). The cyclone doesn't have long over water, but half the reason why the convection over Oswald is so deep is because the water in the Gulf Of Carpentaria (GOC) is about 31C, which is helped by the fact that there hasn't been a cyclone in the GOC since TC Paul in 2010. Along with the good upper level outflow and low shear, this should allow Oswald to strengthen over the next 12 hours before landfall. What then happens to Oswald is unclear. The steering influence is pretty weak, and to complicate matters further, Oswald could briefly interact with a weaker low over the Coral Sea. Both JTWC and BOM are very uncertain in their forecasts, but are broadly agreeing on a southerly track after landfall, keeping Oswald over land and not bringing the cyclone out into the Coral Sea. JTWC expect Oswald to persist over land for the next 5 days as a 35kt+ cyclone for the next 5 days however, as it draws moisture from the Coral Sea and the GOC- which backs up the 500mm rainfall prediction by Sky News Weather.