Somerset Squall

Tropical Cyclone Victoria has formed in the eastern South Indian Ocean, near Cocos Island. Victoria has sustained winds of 40kts and is characterised by a tight LLC with intense convection covering it. As Victoria is small, shear is very low and waters warm, the cyclone could rapidly strengthen over the next 36hrs before shear rises on the southerly track. Troughing to the west and ridging to the east will guide Victoria south and not towards the NW Australian coast.

Imelda continues to strengthen. Intensity is at 50kts this morning. Strong banding flanks a central dense overcast which is beginning to show signs of an eye feature.

21S has become Tropical Cyclone Imelda, with sustained winds now at 40kts. Imelda has strengthened slowly due to moderate shear, which is slowly abating. Banding features are becoming more prominant, and convection is building nearer the LLC. Further intensification is expected as Imelda continues westwards over the next day or two. Imelda is then expected to turn quite sharply southward as a trough breaks down the steering ridge to the south beyond this time.

Tropical Cyclone 21S has formed around 200 miles south of Diego Garcia, in the central South Indian Ocean. This ends a five and a half week period without a cyclone in this basin, which is unusual. No tropical cyclone activity was observed in March, which is uncommon. 21S has sustained winds of 35kts. The cyclone is expected to strengthen as it heads just south of west over the coming days, as the current moderate shear abates and joins the good outflow and warm waters to promote intensification. Ridging to the south is expected to guide 21S on the westerly track until it begins to break down by day 4/5 which will cause a poleward turn for 21S at this stage, probably well before the approach to Madagascar. JTWC expect a peak of 100kts, and MeteoFrance are similarly aggressive in their intensity forecast. Moderate shear will slow strengthening at first, but as it eases, the other environmental parameters are very favourable for robust strengthening.

An average March rainfall wise (only thing average about it weatherwise!). Most of the rain fell on the 14th-17th and again on the 22-23rd, with much of the rest of the month being somewhat drier. January: 95.2mm (above average) February: 43.1mm (below average) March: 55.9mm (average) 2013 so far: 194.2mm

Been snowing here for about 4 hours now, quite light in intensity but nice to see nonetheless. Would much rather have some warm weather now though.

And look at the 15-30 day, remaining colder than average for the north, and wetter than average for the south. We desperately need some dry weather here, the fields are back under water again and that was a result of not a huge amount of rainfall. The water table is just so high still. And when the fields did emerge for about a month they were in a right state.

Tim has degenerated into a remnant low this evening. The LLC has been devoid of convection for most of the day, and has become less defined as a result. Just recently, convection has flared over the southern quadrant of the LLC, but with the dry air and continued shear expected to continue to plague the system, redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is not expected.

Tim has weakened to 35kts. At times over the last day, the LLC has been entirely exposed. However, a recent burst of convection has persisted near the LLC in the face of strong northerly shear. Tim is eventually expected to succumb to the shear, and may degenerate into a remnant low as soon as tomorrow as it drifts slowly westwards.

Tim has strengthened to 55kts. The cyclone has maintained deep convection over the LLC through today and this has allowed the LLC to further tighten. However, Tim may not strengthen any further. Already, shear is increasing over Tim and displacing the convection from the LLC. Moderate shear is expected to prevent further strengthening and then cause weakening in a couple days time as it rises further. Tim has quickly moved southeastwards over the last day but will slow soon as steering currents become weak. Tim is still then expected to drift generally westwards as a high builds to the south, but the timing of this turn is uncertain. Tim is not expected to impact the coast as a tropical cyclone as shear should ultimately kill Tim before the cyclone makes it.

Sandra has become a 40kt extratropical storm. Sandra is brushing Lord Howe Island, Australia, and may impact New Zealand in a few days time as a significant extratropical system.

Tropical Cyclone Tim has formed just east of the Cape York Peninsula, NE Australia. Intensity is 35kts. The cyclone has deepening convection over the LLC and improving banding features. The system is in a favourable environment characterised by low shear, warm sea temps, and good outflow. Therefore, Tim is expected to strengthen for the next 72hrs. Weakening is expected thereafter due to rising shear. Tim is moving southeastwards currently, steered by an equatorial ridge. Through the next few days, steering influence is expected to transfer to a ridge to the southeast, cradling Tim back towards the southwest, towards the coast. The timing and exact track is uncertain, but Tim looks to be a threat to land early next week. Tim should be weakening by the time it approaches land, but could still pack a punch. One to watch.

Sandra's peak was 110kts in the end. The cyclone is now weakening under strong northerly shear. Intensity is down to 85kts currently. The eye has become cloud filled and the convective canopy has shrunk.. Further weakening is expected as Sandra slips south out of the tropics. Sandra is expected to become an extratropical storm soon.

Sandra has rapidly intensified overnight and is now a 110kt cat 3 cyclone on the SS scale. The eye has cleared out and become better defined. Sandra is expected to become a cat 4 over the next 12 hours as shear remains low and outflow impressive in all quadrants. Thereafter, weakening will. occur as shear rises.

Sandra has strengthened further, but at a slower pace over the last 24 hours. Intensity is at 70kts currently. Sandra has looked rather lop sided through the day with some very intense convection to the north of the developing eye and not much convection at all to the south of the eye. Over the last 6 hours, Sandra has become more symmetrical and the intense convection has now fully encircled the eye which is becoming better defined. Sandra could well make an upwards leap in intensity over the next 12 hours if this organisational trend continues. Shear is then expected to rise and sea temps cool a little as Sandra veers to the south to the west of New Caledonia. Sandra will still bring heavy rains and high winds here despite the fact it's not likely to make landfall.

Sandra is ramping up quickly. Sustained winds are now at 60kts. Deep convection continues to persist over the LLC, and an eye is beginning to form. Further rapid intensification is possible as shear remains low and outflow good. Sandra should begin the poleward turn over the next day or two, and Sandra is still.likely to graze New Caledonia by day 4-5.

Tropical Cyclone Sandra has formed in the central Coral Sea, with sustained winds of 35kts. The cyclone has deep, central convection and improving banding features. Sandra is positioned underneath an anticyclone, which is creating a low shear environment and enabling excellent radial outflow. As sea temperatures are also very warm, Sandra could strengthen fairly decently over the coming days. Currently, Sandra is moving eastwards along the south side of an equatorial ridge, but ridging to the east is expected to deflect the cyclone south-southeastwards in a couple days time. Track is uncertain, but New Caledonia need to be wary of Sandra as the current JTWC track puts Sandra close to the country as an intense cyclone in 5 days time.

Although not as dry as the previous February, February comes in drier than average again this year. A welcome relief! January: 95.2mm February: 43.1mm 2013 so far: 138.3mm

Rusty made landfall just east of Port Hedland yesterday afternoon. The system has moved well inland now and is decaying over the Western Australia interior.

18S has lost the battle, at least for now. The system was declared a remnant low yesterday. Today, all that remains is a naked LLC with little associated convection. Lukewarm sea temps and continued shear argue against redevelopment, at least in the near term.

Shear remains high over 18S. As a result, the system is fighting for it's life. Intensity is still 35kts, and convection still remains detached from the increasingly distorted LLC. 18S has wobbled south in a weak steering environment, but should turn more firmly towards the east over the coming days. 18S could dissipate at any time, and if the shear doesn't ease soon, I'd put the chances of this happening as probable.

Rusty has stalled just north of Port Hedland. The eye is clearing out nicely this evening, and sustained winds are now at 95kts, high end cat 2 on the SS scale. It is possible Rusty could attain cat 3 status before moving inland tomorrow. Significant storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rains all remain a threat to a large portion of the NW Australian coast, but particularly to Port Hedland.

Rusty has strengthened quickly, and sustained winds are now at 65kts. An eye is emerging from the central dense overcast. Rusty is expected to continue to ramp up quickly as it continues to edge it's way southwards towards landfall- which is still expected to be near Port Hedland.

Shear and cool waters have caused Haruna to degenerate to a remnant low. The fully exposed LLC is expected to continue to drift east then swing back northwestwards as ridging builds to the south of the system. Regeneration is not expected, but cannot be ruled out as the northwesterly motion may bring the remnant low back over warmer water.

Another tropical cyclone has formed in NW Australian waters, much further to the west than TC Rusty (which is threatening the mainland coastline). 18S is located near Cocos Island, and is currently causing some rain and wind here. 18S has a well defined but partially exposed LLC, with deep convection sheared to the west. Sustained winds are currently at 35kts. 18S is trapped between ridging to the north and south which is causing erratic and slow motion of the cyclone currently. Eventually, the northern ridge should win out and send 18S eastwards in a few days time. Although 18S is so far away from mainland Australia, NW Australia should still watch 18S as it is forecast to move eastwards a little closer to the mainland in a few days time. Where 18S will eventually end up is uncertain as it is still a long way off land. The current shear is expected to ease. As 18S is also over warm water and will remain so for the next 5 days, 18S is forecast to strengthen decently as the shear lowers.