Somerset Squall

Erick has continued to strengthen this evening, and winds are now at 60kts. Erick should continue to strengthen over the next day or two before encountering stronger shear and cooler sea temps on the west-northwest track. The track has shifted slightly north towards the coast of Mexico, and any more northward adjustment may mean that Erick interacts with land, which would stop strengthening.

Shear has lessened considerably over Erick this afternoon. The storm has strengthened to 50kts. Erick has some very deep convection over the LLCC presently, and there are even hints of an eye forming. As shear has reduced more than forecast, Erick is now expected to become a hurricane. In fact, there is a chance of rapid intensification over the next 24hrs.

Dalila has been downgraded to a tropical depression with winds of 30kts. A small area of convection has fired over the LLCC this morning as Dalila remains over marginally warm waters. However, this is not expected to persist as shear remains moderate to high and the air dry.

05E has become Tropical Storm Erick, with winds now at 40kts. Erick has a large area of deep convection displaced west of the LLCC by moderate shear. However, the convection is quite intense. Continued shear of at least moderate levels are still expected to slow strengthening, but not completely prevent it. The latest track brings Erick closer to the Mexico coastline, increasing the heavy rainfall threat here. Shear is expected to ease in a few days time, but sea temps will be cooler along track by then. NHC expect a peak of 55kts.

Dalila has become completely convectionless this evening, and unless convection makes a comeback, it will soon be a remnant low. Intensity is 35kts currently, but I expected Dalila will be downgraded to a tropical depression next advisory as it moves westwards.

Indeed, we have 05E. Intensity is 30kts. There is a large amount of convection around the LLC currently, and it probably won't be long before 05E is a tropical storm. However, shear is moderate to high at present, and is only expected to lower to moderate levels over the coming days, so as SB says, a moderate to strong tropical storm looks the likely peak for 05E, unless shear eases. A typical west-northwest track is expected, which means that 05E will get fairly close to the coast, bringing heavy rainfall.

Shear has increased overnight, driving dry air into the core of Dalila. As a consequence, the deep convection associated with Dalila has pretty much diminished, and what is left is displaced from the LLCC. Dalila's intensity has fallen to 50kts. Based on the highly disorganised state of Dalila, the storm may not be long for this world as it moves slowly westward. Such a small storm was very vunerable to a poor envrionment, and the shear has really done a number of Dalila.

96E became Hurricane Dalila. Yup, 97E looking more impressive now, up to 70% from NHC. Good chance of another cane I fancy, the fourth in a row if it does achieve that status.

Tiny Dalila has remained a 65kt hurricane this evening. If anything, Dalila has become even smaller! This is probably due to dry air surrounding the hurricane, which is not penetrating the core of Dalila currently as shear remains fairly low. The hurricane has been very slow moving over the last day but should pick up a slightly south of west track soon as ridging rebuilds to the north. Look how tiny she is! The size difference between Dalila and the last hurricane, Cosme, is quite something!

Dalila has become a hurricane, the third of the East Pacific season. The small storm has developed a cloud obscured eye which has been fleetingly visible in satellite imagery. Dalila is not expected to hold the current 65kt intensity for long as dry air continues to affect the tiny hurricane.

Rumbia has made landfall in China north of Hainan Island. The storm is being degraded by land interaction and high shear. Intensity is down to 40kts. JTWC have issued their last advisory, though heavy rains remain a threat as Rumbia dissipates.

I wouldn't be surprised GW, though Dalila has turned into a midget this morning! Dalila strengthened to 60kts overnight but has since weakened to 55kts. The small central dense overcast has shrunk even further. To the naked eye, Dalila just looks like a spot of convection, though on closer inspection it is indeed still a compact high end tropical storm. The forecst has become somewhat interesting this morning. Invest 97E has formed to Dalila's southeast. This disturbance is expected to approach TS Dalila over the next few days. What this will do to Dalila's track is uncertain. It could well drag the storm southwestwards or southwards. This could stop Dalila's journey into colder waters and instead move it back into very warm water again. Whilst this could delay or even stop weakening, if tiny Dalila gets dragged too close to the new invest in a Fujiwara Interaction, then Dalila could get absorbed by 97E. It'll be interesting to see what happens. The once straightforward westward track is literally up in the air this morning as the models are all over the place.

Dalila appears to be approaching hurricane intensity. The small storm retains a central dense overcast feature flanked by strong banding. Intensity has increased to 55kts. I expect Dalila will become a hurricane by tomorrow morning if current trends continue. The storm is pulling away from the coast now so the rains from Dalila's outer bands should ease soon.

Rumbia remains a 65kt typhoon.The typhoon is grazing eastern Hainan Island, bringing damaging winds and torrential rain here. It seems like Rumbia is refusing to weaken, and will probably still be a 55kt+ system at final landfall.

Dalila has strengthened to 50kts. The storm remains very small but has become tightly wrapped this afternoon, with much improved banding and deep, centralised convection. Dalila is now moving northwestwards and will gradually bend westwards over the next couple of days. Dalila is expected to become a minimal hurricane as shear remains fairly low and waters warm for about the next 36hrs. Thereafter, cooler waters and drier air will cause Dalila to begin weakening.

Rumbia has become the first typhoon of the season, with winds now at 65kts. Rumbia has probably peaked, as shear is set to increase further as the typhoon approaches the coast.

Rumbia has intensified overnight, to 60kts. Looking at latest satellite imagery, this coud well be developing into the season's first typhoon, after the first five systems failed to do so. Looks like an eye is taking shape quite nicely in the central dense overcast:

Rumbia has strengthed a little more, and now has sustained winds of 45kts. Convection remains persistant but is still displaced from the LLCC. Rumbia is about 24hrs away from landfall- but moderate shear should prevent significant intensification before this occurs.

Barring any rain tonight (not likely), June's rainfall comes in at a little less than half the average. January: 95.2mm (above average)February: 43.1mm (below average)March: 55.9mm (average) April: 27.3mm (well below average) May: 57.4mm (above average) June: 28.0mm (well below average)2013 so far: 306.9mm (a little below average)

Rumbia has crossed the Philippines and has emerged into the South China Sea. Rumbia has started to restrengthen and sustained winds have reached 40kts. The storm has a well defined LLCC but convection is displaced slightly by moderate shear. Despite the shear, Rumbia is still expected to instensify to strong tropical storm intensity as it continues northwestwards towards Southern China. Landfall location has shifted westwards nearer to Hainan in the latest JTWC forecast, but this could still change.

Tropical Storm Dalila has formed off the south coast of Mexico. Sustained winds are 35kts. Dalila is a small tropical storm with a modest amount of convection covering the LLCC. The environment favours strengthening, with low shear and warm waters being evident. Dalila is forecast to move north towards the Mexico coast along the western side of a ridge to the east. Dalila should turn westwards before reaching the coast as a strong ridge to the north assumes steering influence in a day or two. Dalila has about 72hrs to strengthen, and NHC forecast a peak of 60kts so it is not out of the question for Dalila to become a hurricane.

We have 96E roughly where Cosme originally formed. Good rotation and some persistant convection, NHC give 70% chance of TC development in the next 48 hours.

Tropical Depression 06W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Rumbia, with sustained winds now at 35kts. The storm has a small but very deep area of convection over the LLCC, and some banding features. Rumbia has been moving north-northwestwards instead of northwestwards, so the track forecast has shifted northwards. Rumbia is now expected to cross Luzon instead of the southern Philippines. Rumbia's north-northwestward heading has given it more time over water aswell, so Rumbia could strengthen a little more before landfall as shear remains low and outflow good, particularly in an equatorward direction. Rumbia will weaken as it crosses Luzon but has the opportunity to restrengthen as it emerges into the South China Sea, especially as shear is now expected to be lower here. Rumbia is forecast to be a high end tropical storm before a second landfall, still progged to be near Hong Kong.

Cosme was declared a remnant low last night. Regeneration is not expected.

Tropical Depression 06W has formed off the east coast of the southern Philippines. Intensity is 25kts. Shear is low and sea temperatures warm, so the main impediment to intensification over the coming days is land interaction. Subtropical ridging to the northeast is expected to push 06W northwestwards through the Philippine islands. 06W will then round the western periphery of the ridge and head on a more northerly track through the northern South China Sea towards the South China coast. Landfall is currently expected near Hong Kong, though at this range there are bound to be some changes so it's important not to focus on the current track as gospel. Just how much 06W strengthens depends on the course it takes through the islands; JTWC doesn't forecast much strengthening until the depression reaches the South China Sea, and then doesn't forecast much due to higher wind shear south of China. However, in my experience, sometimes if the LLCC threads between the islands through the hot waters, systems can still intensify. It'll be interesting to see how 06W fairs, but one thing is certain, the Philippines are in for a drenching.