Somerset Squall

Flossie weakened to 45kts as it crossed into the Central Pacific, but has now re-strengthened to 50kts. Sea temps are marginally warm under Flossie, but do increase on the westward track. However, shear is expected to increase and dry air is expected to continue to affect Flossie. Nevertheless, Flossie is closing in on Hawaii, and a tropical storm watch has been issued here. Waters west of Hawaii become very warm, and it's a long shot given the shear and dry air ahead, but if the shear were to ease as all when Flossie moves over this water, Flossie could restrengthen. As it stands, CPHC still forecast dissipation west of Hawaii. Coincidental I know, but Flossie from 2006 followed a very similar track and also impacted Hawaii, though that Flossie became a cat 4 hurricane. Interesting also that Barbara earlier this year followed an extremely similar track to Barbara from 2007, though this time Barbara was a hurricane and in 2007 it was only a tropical storm.

Dorian is no longer a tropical cyclone and has opened up into a wave. Dry air and shear are expected to prevent regeneration.

Convection definitely on a downward trend again this evening. Dorian has done well to last this long but dry air still a big problem as SB said, and though shear is lower, it is not ideal, especially for a system this weak. He made it through last night after looking dead, can he do it again?

Flossie went against expectations and strengthened to 60kts earlier today, and an eye began to form in the central dense overcast. However, Flossie seems to have weakened since, as the eye of sorts that showed earlier has now gone and the convection associated with Flossie has began to wane. Winds are down to 55kts. NHC have handed over resonsibilty to the CPHC as Flossie is now moving into the Central Pacific basin. As Flossie has remained stronger for longer than expected, it could still be a tropical storm as it impacts Hawaii, so watches and warnings could soon be issued here.

Flossie's intensity is now up to 50kts. The storm has a symmetrical central dense overcast, and if it had a little longer over warm water then it definitely would have become a hurricane. As it stands, the chances of this are slim as Flossie is already crossing into cooler water.

Intensity now down to 40kts, I don't think Dorian is long for this world unless he comes back tonight as you say SB. Dangerously close to opening up into a wave IMO, the fast forward speed and associated shear/dry air have really hit Dorian, hard. With Dorian is such a weak state, I find it difficult to see how it can survive at least another 2 days of environmental hostility.

Flossie has strengthened modestly over the last 24 hours and sustained winds are now at 45kts. The storm has some deep convection over the LLCC, and good banding features, with a primary band stretching from the eastern quadrant southwards. Flossie could strengthen a little more over the next 6-12hrs before sea temps shelve off quickly along track and the storm moves into a much drier airmass. The shear is set to remain low however, so weakening will be slow. Current track forecasts actually have Flossie making landfall directly on Hawaii, as a tropical depression.

As expected, Dorian has weakened to 45kts this morning as dry air engulfs the storm. Dorian has only meager convection over the LLCC, but should still eventually recover once it heads west of 60W. Dorian is expected to pass close to the northern coast of Hispaniola on the current track, so if Dorian is restrengthening at this stage it could bring flooding rains here. The impact will be lessened by a more northerly track.

Latest satellite imagery shows Dorian becoming cut off from the moist southwesterly inflow from the ITCZ. Convection appears to be weakening too currently, will be interesting to see if this persists. Now the system is losing the support from the ITCZ, I think it may suffer over the next day or so.

Dorian has strengthened to 50kts. The storm retains some persistant convection over the LLCC, and good banding features. A wall of dry air is awaiting Dorian however, which could weaken the small storm over the next day or two. Thereafter, it looks like Dorian could strengthen again as shear is not expected to be as high as previously thought in a few days time, and Dorian should move into a moister airmass again.

Indeed, the cool sea temps and dry air do a good job at protecting Hawaii, particularly this early on in the season.06E has become Tropical Storm Flossie, as winds have reached 35kts. Some further strengthening is expected over the next 36 hours.

Tropical Depression 06E has formed from invest 98E, located at about 15N, 122W, 950 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression has sustained winds of 30kts. 06E has formed a decent amount of centralised convection, and may not be far off becoming a tropical storm. However, as the storm has formed so far west well away from the toasty eastern half of the basin, it doesn't have long over waters warm enough to support intensification; about 48 hours in fact. In this time, as shear is low, 06E should at least become a moderate to strong tropical storm, if there is no surprise rapid intensification. As 06E crosses into cooler waters in a couple days time, weakening will begin. Strong ridging to the north is expected to guide 06E on a typical west-northwest to westward heading through it's lifetime.

98E has been slow to organise as it continues to head westwards further out to sea (now at roughly 120W), but seems to be getting it's act together now. Convection is blossoming over the LLCC, and the system has developed some impressive banding features this evening. NHC give a 80% chance of TC development in the next 48hrs. If current trends persist, I see 98E being upgraded very soon.

The small tropical depression has intensified this afternoon, and is now Tropical Storm Dorian, with sustained winds of 45kts. Banding features have formed this afternoon, encircling the convection covered LLCC. Dorian could strengthen a little more over the next 24hrs as shear remains low and waters warm. Beyond this time, Dorian will move over cooler waters and into a dry and stable airmass, which will likely cause the small storm to weaken. As Dorian moves just to the north of the Eastern Caribbean in about 4 days time, shear is currently expected to rise, but waters will warm up again along track. It is unclear just how this will affect Dorian. If the shear is less than expected, Dorian could strengthen significantly at this time.

The fourth tropical depression of the Atlantic season has formed in the Eastern Atlantic. Winds are at 30kts. Strengthening is expected initially, but dry air, increasing shear and marginal sea temps are expected to dampen significant strengthening on the west-northwest track.

Had 17.0mm of rain last night. The rain was torrential at times during the storm. As I said earlier the thunder was not all that loud, but the lightning was averaging a strike every couple seconds. A lot of weather professional bashing here today by the looks of things. This setup was notoriously difficult to predict, so I think some of the comments are a little unfair. There was an organised belt of rain, it was just much narrower than predicted, and didn't travel as far east as expected. As I said a very difficult setup to forecast so I don't blame the Met Office at all, and before anyone says anything I WOULD be saying the same even if I didn't get the storm here last night.

Just had a nice thunderstorm which is easing away now. The thunder wasn't all that loud but the lightning was very frequent, averaging out a flash every 2 seconds or so. The rain was pretty heavy too. Still flashing away now but gradually easing.

The band over East Devon seems to be intensifying again, some bright echoes appearing on radar.

Looks pretty impressive at the moment I must admit, but the window for favourable conditions looks small. As you mention Mezza, SAL is a big player further west, along with marginal sea temps. 98L may have a shot at becoming a tropical depression over the next day or so as there is some pronounced turning as some decent convection at present, however it may struggle thereafter, at least until it nears the Eastern Caribbean.

97E became Hurricane Erick. After a lull in activity, we have invest 98E churning away in the east of the basin, south of the coast of Mexico. Convection is gradually building and is showing signs of rotation. Conditions look favourable for 98E as it moves to the west-northwest, and I think the NHC's forecast of a 20% risk of TC development in the next 48hrs is a little conservative.

Feels cooler than this time last night, felt very oppressive then. If anything, tonight feels a lot fresher than previous nights. Still, I hope we see something.

Yeah quite surreal that, the lightning was lighting up most of the sky but the moon was still fully out.

Had some frequent but not all that bright flashing to the south for the last couple hours. Then all died off but just had a single brighter flash with the first audible thunder of the evening.

Seen some regular flashes to the south over the last couple hours. Then all died off but a much brighter flash has just occured with the first audible thunder (albeit fairly quiet).

Cimaron is making landfall in southeast China as a 40kt tropical storm. Cimaron has made landfall much further west than originally expected so will not affect eastern China or Taiwan. In fact, the impact to southeast china is minimal as the storm looks to be weakening on landfall.