Somerset Squall

Yutu has changed little since last night. The storm remains a 35kt tropical storm, but has no convection over the LLCC and just retains a small area of thunderstorms in the southern quadrant. Yutu is now forecast to dissipate before reaching the Central Pacific. This image shows Yutu's unusually high lattitude (it is the easternmost of the two systems):

Kiko has weakened to a tropical depression, with winds down to 30kts. The LLC has been devoid of convection for much of the day but recently and isolated cell has fired north of the centre. But really, this isn't enough to sustain Kiko so the clock is ticking.

Dry and stable air, along with declining sea temps, have caused Kiko to weaken this evening. Winds are down to 50kts. The storm continues to crawl very slowly to the north. The LLCc is partially exposed as the dry air eats away at the convection. Further weakening is expected, and Kiko could fall apart pretty quickly.

JMA has upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Toraji, with winds now at 35kts. Toraji has shown some improvement in organisation over the last few hours with convective banding features forming about the LLCC. Toraji doesn't have long to strengthen, and probably won't get above a moderate strength tropical storm before it reaches cooler water.

A cold core low in the far east of the West Pacific basin at high lattitude has aquired tropical characteristics and been upgraded to Tropical Storm Yutu, with winds of 35kts. The storm has some modest convection to the south of the mainly exposed LLCC. Yutu is not expected to strengthen tropically, and will soon become extratropical as it races northeastwards. Intetestingly, Yutu will move across the international dateline into the Central Pacific. It has been some time since a tropical cyclone has crossed the dateline from west to east. Seems to be a year for dateline crossing storms (Pewa, Unala and 03C crossed it east to west last month).

Kiko, officially, has remained a tropical storm. However, NHC mention that Kiko could've briefly been a hurricane this afternoon. Winds are still at 60kts. Kiko is on the edge of conducively warm waters, so weakening should begin tonight as the sea temps shelve off quickly, and dry and stable air affects the storm.

The fifteenth tropical depression of the season has formed roughly 150 miles west of Okinawa, and northeast of Taiwan. 15W has winds of 25kts and some deep convection over an elongated LLC. The depression is currently in an area of low shear and marginal sea temps. 15W is forecast to head northeastwards then north as a ridge builds to the east. This will take the depression west of Japan into much cooler water, initiating extratropical transition. Thereafter, 15W will impact Japan as an extratropical depression.

96L's chances have been dropped to 10% for the 0-120hr period. The wave just fizzled completely once it hit water off the coast of Africa, as the upper level environment was, once again, unfavourable.

As Coasts post says, Kiko is approaching hurricane strength. The storm has a small central dense overcast, with an eye beginning to form. The eye-feature of yesterday quickly dissapeared but this forming eye could become persistant enough for Kiko to briefly become a hurricane. Sustained winds are 60kts, so Kiko is nearly there. Kiko has about another 12hrs to strengthen before weakening begins.

Mmm, maybe, it'll be interesting to see in post-storm analysis. Tropical storms can sometimes have eye-like features, particularly ones that are intensifying fast. From Wiki

Tropical Depression 11E is now Tropical Storm Kiko, with winds of 50kts. Against all expectations, the cyclone has rapidly intensified. Further strengthening may occur over the next day as shear remains low and waters warm along the very slow north-northwesterly track. NHC forecast a peak of 60kts, but also mention that Kiko could become a hurricane prior to weakening as the storm moves over cooler water and increased shear. A perfect example of how limited our skill at forecasting changes in tropical cyclone intensity are, and summed up nicely by NHC:

Yikes! This was unexpected. Still a 30kt tropical depression at the 4pm update but this most definitely IS NOT a tropical depression now. High end TS to my untrained eye at least.

Kong-Rey has been declared extratropical as it moves into western Japan. The extratropical remnant will traverse Japan then move out into the open waters of the North Pacific. Tropical regeneration is not expected.

The eleventh tropical depression of the season has formed well southwest of Baja California. The depression has sustained winds of 30kts, and some deep convection over the LLCC. 11E is still embedded in the ITCZ, and will find it difficult to strengthen as long as this is the case. 11E is expected to drift slowly north and intensify over the next couple of days, before reaching cooler water and increasing shear. This will quickly reverse the strengthening trend, and cause the system to weaken. As the depression becomes a remnant low, the weak system may be dragged back south towards the ITCZ. 11E is forecast to become a weak tropical storm over the next day or so, but significant strengthening is not expected. 11E should not affect land.

Cool sea temps have robbed Juliette's LLC of all convection, and Juliette has been declared a remnant low. Regeneration is not expected.

Kong-Rey peaked at 55kts, and has now weakened to 40kts under increasing shear. The storm has moved very close to Taiwan, bringing flooding here. Kong-Rey will soon turn northeastwards towards Japan and begin extratropical transition.

Tropical Storm Juliette formed yesterday south of Baja California. The storm has moved northwestwards and is grazing the west coast of the Peninsula. Juliette has strengthened to 45kts but is fast moving towards colder water, which will soon initiate weakening. Strong winds and heavy rains will continue over Baja California for the next day or two but will then ease as the weakening cyclone pulls away to the west thereafter.

Kong-Rey has strengthened today, and winds are now at 50kts. Convection is exploding directly over the LLCC, which is now competely covered by the convection. Kong-Rey continues north, and will be passing Taiwan to the east over the next couple days. Further strengthening is expected as shear continues to ease, at least temporarily. Kong-Rey is therefore forecast to become a minimal typhoon prior to the exttratropical transition still expected to occur as the system heads northeast towards Japan. Kong-Rey is currently bringing very heavy rains to eastern Luzon. The same may occur for Taiwan, despite the strongest winds remaining offshore.

Moderate shear has prevented Kong-Rey from strengthening, and winds remain at 35kts. Convection remains sheared to the southwest of the exposed LLCC. Shear is still expected to ease over the next day or two, allowing strengthening to a strong tropical storm intensity. The track forecast remains the same- once Kong-Rey moves to the east of Taiwan it will swing northeast towards Japan. At this stage, cooling along track sea temps and increased shear will initiate weakening and extratropical transition. Kong-Rey is likely to have nearly completed this transition at landfall in Southern Japan.

Tropical Storm Kong-Rey has formed just east of the Philippines overnight, with winds of 35kts according to JMA. Some shear is affecting the system, as evidenced by the almost entirely exposed LLCC on the northeast edge of an area of deep convection. Shear may ease a little over the next few days, allowing slow strengthening. Ridging to the east will steer Kong-Rey northwards parallel to the coast of Luzon and east of Taiwan over the next day or two followed by a track northeast as Kong-Rey reaches the northwest periphery of the ridge. As this turn occurs, shear will rise further, causing weakening as the system begins to approach Japan.

Fernand strengthened to 45kts and is now moving inland. Just before landfall, some very deep convection exploded in the southwest quadrant of Fernand, and if this system just had another 12 hours over water I think it would have approached hurricane strength. However, now the system has moved across the coast, weakening will begin quickly as Fernand interacts with the mountains of Mexico. Flooding and mudslides are a real danger to this area over the coming few days as Fernand is quite a moisture laiden storm.

10 minutes later...

Looks like a tropical storm to me, and RECON data seems to be pointing this way, we may get a special advisory soon making that upgrade.

94E became TS Ivo. We now have invest 95E taking shape south of the Gulf Of Tehuantepec. The invest has spawned on the southern half of a tropical wave that moved across the Caribbean this week (the northern half of the wave has become TD6 in the Atlantic). 95E's convection is showing some curvature and organisation, and NHC give a 40% chance of TC formation in the next 48hrs (I suspect these chances will rise next update) and 80% in the next 5 days.

Ivo has degenerated into a remnant low over the cold waters west of Baja California. The moisture streaming ahead of the low is increasing rainfall over Baja and the southwest USA, but the tropical cyclone itself is done.