Somerset Squall

Barry part 2. How thrilling. Has a shot at becoming Fernando but 95L doesn't have enough time to become anything decent. Just as well I guess for Mexico.

Pewa has finally fully succumbed to the shear and no longer is a tropical cyclone. The LLC is elongated and has no persistant convection. Regeneration is not expected.

Pewa remains a 30kt tropical depression for now. Continued shear batters the depression, with the LLCC as a result being entirely exposed from the convection at the moment. Pewa has not moved much over the last 24hrs, but is slowly drifting westwards at the moment. Pewa should move northwards soon in response to the approaching trough.

Ivo has weakened and winds are now at 35kts. Convection has become shallower, a sure sign waters are too cool to support the storm. Ivo is expected to continue to weaken as it heads north-northwestwards into higher shear and even cooler water. Tropical Storm warnings have been discontinued for Baja California.

Ivo has strengthened to 40kts. The LLCC has reformed to the northeast under deeper convection. The organisation of the storm has improved too, with more centralised convection and tighter banding. However, Ivo still is not forecast to strengthen beyond mid-strength TS prior to moving over cooler water. The jog east due to the centre reformation means that tropical storm warnings have been issued for Baja California.

The upper level low that has been forecast for days to move away from Pewa just hasn't. Pewa weakened to a 30kt tropical depression earlier today and remains one this evening. Pewa is not expected to re-strengthen at all as shear remains high. The LLCC has been exposed for most the day to the southwest of a linear area of convection. The depression has practically stalled at the moment but should lift north then northeast as it gets lifted out of the current weak steering environment by a trough. At the time of this, Pewa will become extratropical- that's if it hasn't already dissipated.

Tropical Depression 09E has become Tropical Storm Ivo, with winds now at 35kts. Ivo is a very large and broad system, with an elongated LLC and a sprawling mass of convection. This storm is certainly going to be a flooding concern for northwest Mexico and southwest USA. The large and elongated nature of Ivo argues against significant intensification before the storm reaches cooler waters in 24-36hrs on the north-northwesterly track. Dissipation should occur west of Baja California in a few days time, but as the Ivo is so large some very heavy rains are likely here despite the LLCC remaining well offshore.

The ninth tropical depression of the East Pacific season has formed a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Winds are currently at 30kts. The depression is quite broad and the LLCC is exposed to the northeast of the main bulk of the convection due to moderate shear. 09E is forecast to move north-northwestwards along the southwest side of a ridge over mainland Mexico. This track will take 09E west of Baja California over the coming days, and will also take the depression over much colder water in about 36-48hrs. Therefore, 09E doesn't have long to strengthen, and based on the current organisation of the system, any strengthening will be slow. Therefore, 09E probably won't become any stronger than a minimal tropical storm.

Strong shear continues to affect Pewa. Pewa's intensity remains at 35kts. Convection is not persistant over the LLCC, but is flaring up periodically, and currently is fairly deep. The upper level low to the system's northwest is only gradually expected to develop any distance from Pewa, so it seems only slow intensification at best can be expected over the next few days. Pewa is forecast to continue heading northwestwards along the west side of a ridge to the east, then gradually turn westwards and slow in 3 days time as a trough approaches and begins to erode the ridge. It seems this trough too will inflict Pewa with shear, so Pewa is no longer forecast to regain typhoon status, and instead is forecast to peak at 55kts for the system's second peak. By day 5, Pewa could well have been picked up by the trough and sent northwards over cooler water and even higher shear, inducing further weakening or even extratropical transition.

There's going to be quite a lot of cleaning up to do after Trami it seems, a lot of flooding in the Philippines, Taiwan and China. Sad to hear about the deaths too. Trami actually peaked just before landfall at 75kts. The storm is now moving inland across southeast China and weakening. Torrential rains are still falling through a large portion of southeast China, and a convective band in the system's southeast is still dumping very heavy rainfall across Taiwan. These rains will only very slowly ease as Trami moves further inland and continues to weaken.

An eye has become apparent in the central dense overcast of Trami. Winds have increased to 70kts. Trami is racing westwards towards landfall in Southeastern China, which will occur tonight. Heavy rains are spreading inland across Southeast China, but have been affecting Taiwan all day, with the strong bands on the south side of Trami providing drenching rains.

I'd say it's the ULL more than anything. It did look like it was moving away a couple days ago but it has gotten close enough again to cause this shear over Pewa. It is still expected to move away from Pewa, relaxing the shear eventually. As it stands, Pewa is only a minimal tropical storm now, with winds having weakened to 35kts.

Trami is now a typhoon, with winds of 65kts. The typhoon retains a solid central dense overcast with impressive banding. Trami's motion has wobbled a bit over the the last 12 hours, but the typhoon is most definitely heading west now. The northward wobbles mean that landfall is no longer expected in Taiwan and Trami should pass just to the north. However, this doesn't make a huge amount of difference to Taiwan as the Trami will still bring dangerous flooding rains here. What it does mean however, is Trami is likely to be stronger now than orginally forecast at second landfall, on China.

Shear has stepped up again and Pewa's LLCC is almost entirely exposed. Shear is still expected to abate, so Pewa should eventually recover. Interesting to note that Tropical Depression 03C is currently being absorbed by Pewa. This is the second cyclone to be absorbed by Pewa, the first being Unala. I can't recall a time when a tropical cyclone absorbed two other tropical cyclones, it must be a pretty rare occurence.

03C crossed the International Dateline earlier today. Now, 03C is no more. What's left of it is being absorbed into Tropical Storm Pewa (that's the second cyclone it's gobbled up now LOL).

Trami is on the verge of becoming a typhoon. The storm has developed a decent central dense overcast with strong monsoonal banding to the south, which is accounting for the flooding rains across the Philippines as Coast's post describes. Winds are currently at 60kts according to JTWC. Trami has now turned west and is closing in on Taiwan. Trami should become a minimal typhoon prior to landfall just over 12 hours time.

Pewa looked like it was in trouble this morning, and the storm weakened to 45kts. However, just recently, Pewa has re-intensified to 50kts, with convection building again near the LLCC, an indication perhaps that the shear may be easing. Shear is expected to continue to ease, and the small storm should find itself regaining typhoon intensity in around 24 hours time.

Trami is on the move after an erratic drift over the last 24 hours. The storm has also strengthened to 55kts. The storm is moving northwards but is soon expected to push westwards as ridging to the north gains influence. Trami should become a typhoon in the next day as shear remains low to moderate, and sea temps warm along track.

Super Typhoon status isn't reached until 130kts (cat 4), unless you are on about a scale I'm unaware of SB? Pewa has lost typhoon status this evening, and has weakened to 60kts. Southerly shear has increased over Pewa, and I also suspect the absorption of former TS Unala has disrupted the organisation of Pewa a little. The southerly shear is now expected to persist for a day or two, and although not destructively strong, it'll probably keep Pewa from intensifying for a day or so. Thereafter, shear is set to ease on the northwesterly track, so strengthening should resume, and as SB says, Pewa is expected to attain cat 3 status. Interestingly, JTWC forecast Pewa to slow and drift west by day 5 as the ridging to the east steering Pewa weakens and leaves the storm in a weak steering environment.

Unala is no longer identifiable on satellite imagery as it has been absorbed by Tropical Storm Pewa. Therefore, the last advisory has been issued.

A third tropical cyclone in the space of 3 days has formed in the Central Pacific. This is quite something, given that the last system before these three tropical cyclones to form in this basin was Omeka in 2010. Tropical Depression 03C is located about 1000 miles west-southwest of Hawaii and is moving westwards. 03C has formed in an environment that is not particularly conducive, as waters are warm but shear is moderate to high. The depression however, has managed to maintain a persistant area of convection over the LLCC in the face of the shear. Shear is not expected to ease, so 03C is not forecast to strengthen, and instead is forecast to dissipate in about 36hrs time, near the International Dateline.

90C became TS Unala and crossed into the West Pacific basin. 91C became Tropical Storm Pewa, crossed into the West Pacific basin and is now Typhoon Pewa. We now have invest 92C, which I believe is the same system as 92E which has slowly tracked across the Central Pacific basin without development, until now. The disturbance has a small area of convection over a possible LLCC which appears to be forming as evidenced by some turning in the convection. CPHC give the system a 30% chance of TC formation, though I think this is a little conservative. Also further east we have a disturbance taking shape in the Central Pacific which has been given a 20% chance of TC development by CPHC. Shear is currently high over the system but it is forecast to weaken which could allow development. I find this amount of activity in the Central Pacific basin to be astonishing. If these two systems develop (and there is a good chance they will), we would have had 4 named storms in a month in this basin. I may be jumping the gun here but 2 named storms so close is remarkable enough. To put this into perspective- the last named storm to form in this basin was Omeka in 2010 (2011 and 2012 had one or two decaying systems move in from the East Pacific which is more common, but they didn't form there)! On to the East Pacific (which has been very quiet since Henriette at the beginning of the month), we have invest 94E located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. The invest is currently not very well organised, with messy convection showing signs of broad rotation. However, shear is low and waters are warm, and models are keen on development. NHC give a 20% chance of TC formation in the next 48hrs and 80% chance in 5 days.

Trami has strengthened over the last day and is now a 50kt tropical storm. The storm is much more symmetrical now the upper level low nearby has weakened and allowed better outflow and lower shear over Trami. Banding features are becoming more prominent and the storm is developing a central dense overcast. Trami has been almost stationary over the last 12hrs but should swing west soon as the ridge to the north builds more strongly. Taiwan and Southeastern China are still in the firing line from Trami.

Pewa is now a typhoon with winds of 65kts. Further strengthening is expected but this may be slow initially due to Fujiwara Interaction with TS Unala to the east. As Unala is smaller and weaker, Pewa will be the dominant system and absorb Unala. Pewa should then resume strenghening in low shear amd very warm water.

Unala is racing westward and is crossing the dateline into the West Pacific. Unala has moved much closer to Typhoon Pewa, and Pewa is now inflicting strong shear over Unala. As a result, Unala's convection has been stripped from the LLCC. Unala is forecast to be absorbed by Typhoon Pewa within the next 24hrs as the weaker system gets dragged into Pewa's circulation.