Somerset Squall

Gil is hanging on in there this evening. Winds have dropped to 25kts, but the LLCC remains tucked beneath a small area of deep convection. Shear has eased a little over the last 24 hours, and though still at moderate levels of 15kts, it may have slackened off enough for Gil to at least remain a tropical depression for the next day or two, or perhaps longer. The west-southwest track has brough Gil into warmer water too which does rather suggest he may not be done yet. Soon, he will cross over into the Central Pacific (west of 140W).

Henriette has strengthened through the day and sustained winds are now at 50kts. Some deep convection remains over the LLCC, with some good banding features. Henriette is expected to become a hurricane, but will it be the first TC of the 2013 season to actually surpass cat 1 status? We've had 5 cat 1 hurricanes and 2 tropical storms, so somethings got to give soon and a major hurricane occurs. Henriette has a shot in my opinion, as the environment ahead is very favourable, with low shear and warm sea temps.

The area of disturbed weather that has been located for several days east of Hurricane Gil became the eighth tropical depression of the season yesterday, and has just strengthened into Tropical Storm Henriette, with winds reaching 35kts. The invest began to organise as Gil weakened and became less influential on this system. A fairly small but deep area of convection is persisting near the LLCC and there is some signs of banding in the southern quadrant, something the cyclone has lacked until now. Conditions seem favourable for the next few days for Henriette to strengthen, but NHC are being conservative with the intensity forecast as Gil moved through this same area a few days ago and weakened despite the low shear and warm sea temps. If Henriette behaves differently, it could become a hurricane prior to reaching cooler water in a few days time.

Gil is being shorn apart. A small area of convection remains near the centre. Intensity is down to 30kts, meaning Gil is now a tropical depression. The environment ahead it hostile as Gil drifts towards the west-southwest, so the depression is not long for this world.

Dorian briefly regenerated into a tropical depression east of Florida but has since degenerated into a remnant low again as shear ripped it apart. Remarkable really though that Dorian manaaged to become a tropical depression again 8 days after it "died" first time, and at the other side of the Atlantic from where it died too.

A week after Dorian lost tropical cyclone status, the remains look to be trying to develop again. The remnants of Dorian are now located off the east coast of Florida. A LLCC appears to be forming near some increasing convection. NHC give a 30% chance of ex-Dorian regenerating into a tropical depression, but this may be a little conservative if current trends continue. Ex-Dorian doesn't have long however, as troughing will soon take this tenacious tropical entity out of the tropics soon as it swings the remains of Dorian to the northeast to be absorbed by a front. Even if ex-Dorian does redevelop, tropical depression or low end tropical storm looks like the best the system can achieve.

Gil peaked at 75kts, but, despite the favourable conditions, has since weakened instead of strengthening further. This was even puzzling to the NHC, with Lixion Avila admitting he was stumped as to why Gil has weakened to the current intensity of 60kts in a low shear, warm sea temperature environment. The eye has not come back from last night, and the central dense overcast has become disorganised. Gil continues westwards along the south side of strong ridging to the north which is building westwards. This means Gil is likely to continue moving westwards or even west-southwestwards over the coming days. Gil could temporarily restrengthen as shear remains low over the next 24 hours, but thereafter weakening should occur as shear rises. However, the restrengthening does depend on the behaviour of Gil, as it seems intent on weakening despite favourable conditions.

Had a half hearted storm here a couple of hours ago. A couple bright flashes, quiet thunder though. Rain was heavy for a time but most of it passed west of here.

Jebi developed an eye briefly earlier today when sustained winds reached 60kts, just below typhoon intensity. Jebi has since weakened to 50kts as it interacts with Hainan Island, and will weaken further before emerging into the Gulf Of Tonkin then making a second landfall, this time in Northern Vietnam, as Coast's post describes.

Jebi has intensified this evening and now has sustained winds of 45kts. Convection has blossomed over the LLCC which has tightened up somewhat over the last 12 hours. Now that Jebi has taken on this slightly more compact appearance, it could strengthen a little more prior to landfall on Hainan Island.

Gil strengthened to 70kts overnight but has stopped strengthening since. The eye is no longer visible, though the central dense overcast remains. It is a little puzzling why Gil hasn't strengthened any further as shear is low and waters are still warm. Gil still has the opportunity to strengthen a little more but time is running out before cooler waters and dry air impact Gil.

July very much wetter than average, despite only 1.0mm of rain falling in the first 23 days of the month. January: 95.2mm (above average)February: 43.1mm (below average)March: 55.9mm (average) April: 27.3mm (well below average) May: 57.4mm (above average) June: 28.0mm (well below average) July: 71.7mm (well above average)2013 so far: 378.6mm (very near average)

I don't know if this is the right area but there seems to be some persistant bands of anaprop to the northeast of my location (in a northwest-southeast orientation) on the radar and a semi permanent band in a northwest-southeast orientation to my location's southwest (Post code TA10). It was so bad today that if you click on the 24hr accumilation you can see my area generally had under or just over 1.0mm of rain today but in these "ghost bands" it is reporting up to around 10mm of rain. No biggie really but I'm just wondering if there is anything that can be done about it?

Gil putting on a show:

Convection has not been persistant with 90E today. NHC upped it's chances of forming into a TC to 60% but has since dropped it back down to 40%. Convection diminished completely this afternoon but it has since made a comeback. However, the convection is poorly organised, and the invest overall does not look as good as it did yesterday, and this could be in part due to the proximity of Hurricane Gil to the west. Still worth watching however, as the LLCC remains well defined.

Jebi remains a 35kt tropical storm this evening. JTWC mention that Jebi resembles a monsoon depression, with a broad LLCC, sprawling banding and stronger winds around the peripheries of the storm and lighter winds near the centre. This structure is not a good one for significant strengthening, despite the favourable environment. Nevertheless, JTWC still forecast a peak of 50kts prior to landfall on Hainan Island.

Gil has strengthened rapidly and is now a 65kt, cat 1 hurricane. An eye is emerging from the central dense overcast, which is still flanked by tightly wrapped banding. NHC are forecasting a peak of 70kts but I feel this is too conservative given the favourable environment ahead and Gil's small size.

Gil remains a compact but very well organised tropical storm. Winds are up to 50kts. Gil looks poised to become a hurricane very soon looking at satellite imagery.

A tropical storm has formed in the South China Sea, off to the west of the Philippines. JMA estimate the winds to be at 35kts, whereas JTWC still assess the system as a 30kt tropical depression. Jebi's circulation is broad, but there are banding features evident. Shear is low and waters warm, so at least some gradual strengthening is expected as Jebi tracks northwestwards along the southwest side of a ridge. This ridge is expected to eventually move north of the storm which will force Jebi westwards in a couple days time. Jebi is forecast to first make landfall on Hainan Island, followed by a landfall in Northern Vietnam. As this is an initial forecast the track could change but one thing is certain, this area is in for a drenching over the coming days.

98E became Tropical Storm Flossie. Invest 99E formed and has become Tropical Storm Gil. Invest 90E has formed east of TS Gil. The disturbance appears to be organising rapidly, and NHC have given a 40% chance of TC development in the next 48hrs. It'll be interesting to see if it does form and how potentially it could interact with TS Gil as the two systems are pretty close to one another. Interesting to note yet another disturbed area well east of invest 90E, though NHC aren't mentioning this area yet.

07E has strengthened quickly, and is now a 35kt tropical storm named Gil. The storm has developed tightly wrapped banding over the last couple hours, and maintains deep centralised convection. Gil could strengthen rapidly as I mentioned earlier.

Tropical Depression 07E has formed a little southeast of where Tropical Storm Flossie formed last week, about 700 nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression has organised quite quickly over the last 24 hours, but only has winds of 25kts currently. Convection is fairly deep over the centre, and 07E's small size means it could intensify quickly. 07E is expected to take a similar path to Flossie, with a general west-northwest heading expected along the south side of strong ridging. This track gives 07E about 72hrs to strengthen before the depression reaches cooler water, inducing weakening.

Flossie crossed Hawaii and has now degenerated into a convectionless remnant low. Dry air, shear and land interaction aided in Flossie's demise. Although waters warm beneath the low as it moves to the west, regneration is not expected due to continued dry air and shear.

Not closed yet, so Ex-Dorian remains nothing more than a wave. But a persistant feature at that, and despite the less than ideal environment, I still wouldn't be suprised if this the disturbance becomes a tropical cyclone again.

Today's showers have pushed July's rainfall above the average. Literally all bar 1.0mm of it has fallen in this last week. It feels odd saying it's been a wetter than average month when the grass is still grey and the trees (particularly Beech) are still showing signs of drought/heat stress. What compounds it too is a lot of the rain has fallen overnight (apart from today and yesterday's rain), which makes it feel all the more like the total shouldn't be above average. 52.6mm so far, with more rain expected over the next couple of days.