Somerset Squall

Dangerous Utor has developed an eye again as it crosses the northern South China Sea. Winds are up to 100kts, making the typhoon a cat 3. Further intensification, perhaps rapid, is expected before landfall on the south coast of China near Hainan Island. With the eye present again now, it seems like Utor will re-attain cat 4 status prior to landfall. JTWC forecast a second peak of 115kts for Utor, but do state that this estimate may be a little low and outflow is expected to improve greatly prior to landfall, waters remain warm and shear low.

Henriette has degenerated into a remnant low. Even though shear is easing and waters are warm, ex-Henriette is probably too weak to regenerate.

Look at this image of the West Pacific, Utor fills the entire South China Sea! Utor weakened to 85kts, but has since restrengthened to 90kts. The large typhoon has very strong convective bands and a tightening LLCC now the system is away from land. South China, Hainan Island, and even Vietnam are in line for some flooding rains, as the rains ease across the Philippines.

Utor has weakened to 95kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. Satellite imagery shows Utor emerging into the South China Sea (SCS) as a weakened but still intact typhoon. Land interaction may produce a little more weakening over the next 6 hours, but conditions in the northern SCS are favourable for reintensification, and JTWC forecast Utor's second peak to be around 100kts before the typhoon makes a second landfall well west of Hong Kong, nearer Hainan Island. This region has seen a lot of landfalls so far this year, albeit from weak but very wet storms (Mangkut and Jebi being the most recent), so flooding will be even more of a concern, along with the wind damage a cat 3 brings.

Convection had completely dissipated this morning in association with Henriette, but it has since made a comeback. However, the cyclone is definitely weaker than this time yesterday, and has been downgraded to a 30kt tropical depression. It is difficult to say just how much longer Henriette will cling to tropical depression status. In it's favour, waters are warm. Against it, shear is moderate. Even though the shear is not at a level that would destroy a large tropical cyclone, Henriette is so small that this will probably be enough to kill it over the next day or so. There remains a chance, especially if shear eases, that Henriette could survive longer than a couple days, a lot will be told by if Henriette can hang on to this recent burst of convection. Henriette is currently directly south of Hawaii, and will continue to head westwards.

Indeed Cornishbrooksy, Utor has become the first Super Typhoon of the season, with sustained winds of 130kts, high end cat 4 on the SS scale. Landfall is hours away and the torrential rains are already falling and the worst of the winds will be felt soon across the Philippines. The storm was a beauty, with a circular central dense overcast with a very well defined eye, but Utor appears to be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Sadly, this means little for Luzon. Just wish it was going out to sea!

Utor has become a cat 4 typhoon on the SS scale with winds now at 115kts. Utor has about another 9hrs to intensify before slamming into eastern Luzon. Destructive winds and dangerous flooding rains will be a big issue, needless to say. Utor is forecast to weaken over land to low end cat 2 but should restrengthen before landfall west of Hong Kong.

Henriette has steadily weakened to 45kts. The storm lost much of it's convection last night but regained it this morning, and has managed to keep a small, persistant area of convection over the LLCC. Henriette continues to moves west-southwestwards in a region of dry air but warming sea temps. Shear is expected to increase in a day or two, hastening weakening, but until then, weakening will be slow as warm waters should continue to fuel some convection.

Utor continues it's rapid intensification phase. Winds are up to 90kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. The eye has become cloud obscured recently but is small and well defined.

Utor is now a typhoon with winds of 70kts. The eye has continued to develop over the past 6 hours, and has started to clear out. The rapid intensification is forecast to continue, and JTWC forecast Utor to become a cat 3 before landfall in Luzon.

Utor has continued to strengthen and is close to becoming a typhoon, if it isn't just about there already. Winds are up to 55kts. The central dense overcast remains solid, with strong banding and a small eye forming. Rapid strengthening is expected prior to landfall on Luzon.

11W has become Tropical Storm Utor, with winds now at 45kts. Convection is now increasing readily over the LLCC, and banding features remain impressive. Shear is low and waters are warm, so further strengthening is expected. The track forecast has shifted significantly south now, meaning Utor is now expected to make landfall in Central Luzon rather than scrape the north coast, and is now expected to remain south of Hong Kong and instead cross the South China Sea (SCS) to affect Hainan Island. This is due to the ridge to the north becoming stronger than expected, and it is forecast to remain strong, blocking northard movement of Utor. Just how strong Utor will get prior to the first landfall is open to question, but Luzon should take a lot of power out of Utor, though conditions in the SCS favour some reintensification prior to the second landfall. The updated image in my first post shows the more southern track forecast by JTWC.

Gil's remnants were still identifiable until today, where they have dissipated just west of Tropical Storm Henriette, after drifting back eastwards. Therefore, regeneration can now be ruled out.

Yep, on the decline now, shear and dry air doing it's thing. Winds are down to 60kts now, so Henriette has lost hurricane status. Henriette has pushed west-southwestwards today, and even though it is moving back over warm water as a result, the upper level environment is still expected to continue Henriette's weakening trend.

Tropical Depression 11W has formed a few hundred miles north-northeast of Pilau, and well east of the Philippines. Sustained winds are 30kts. Convection is currently lacking over the system's centre, but there are curved banding features taking shape which should allow the convection to wrap towards and over the LLCC. Conditions are very favourable for development, with low shear, warm sea temps and good outflow. JTWC forecast rapid intensification as a result, and expect 11W to become an intense typhoon. The track forecast is concerning too. A ridge to the north is expected to push 11W west-northwestwards towards Luzon over the coming days, and 11W is expected to landfall as a significant typhoon in about 84hrs time. Then, 11W is expected to turn towards the northwest as the cyclone reaches the western extent of the ridge, and strengthen yet further before a second landfall near Hong Kong, China. The track, as always, is subject to change, but it looks like we may have a proper typhoon to track unlike the many weak storms the West Pacific has produced so far, barring Soulik. The curved bands evident do suggest that this one could ramp up quickly, which is obviously not good for those in it's path.

Henriette has strengthened some more, and now has sustained winds of 90kts. The central dense overcast remains tiny, with a very well defined eye. Henriette has probably just about peaked, and the tiny hurricane should weaken tomorrow as it moves over progressively cooler water on the westward track.

Mmm, surprisingly not Coast. Henriette has unexpectedly strengthened today and is now a cat 2 hurricane with winds of 85kts. At last, something stronger than a cat 1! Henriette has shrunk considerably and has a tiny central dense overcast with a pinhole eye. Henriette is moving over cooler waters so weakening should recommence soon. Look how tiny Henriette is! Reminds me of a stronger version of the also tiny Hurricane Dalila earlier in the season.

Taken from Unisys, look at the summary so far. I can't recall a season starting with so many hurricanes which all failed to surpass cat 1 intensity. Doesn't mean a lot but an oddity all the same. Wind Category 1 Tropical Storm ALVIN 15-17 MAY 45 - 2 Hurricane-1 BARBARA 28-30 MAY 65 1 3 Hurricane-1 COSME 23-27 JUN 75 1 4 Hurricane-1 DALILA 30 JUN-07 JUL 65 1 5 Hurricane-1 ERICK 04-09 JUL 70 1 6 Tropical Storm FLOSSIE 25-30 JUL 60 - 7 Hurricane-1 GIL 30 JUL-07 AUG 75 1 8 Hurricane-1 HENRIETTE 03-07 AUG 80 1

Fickle Gil has degenerated into a remnant low. The convection became disorganised and the LLC opened up into a trough. The remnants continue to move over warm waters and fairly low shear, so redevelopment is still possible. However, dry air is hindering the system currently, which may be why Gil lost tropical cyclone status earlier.

Mangkhut peaked at 40kts. The storm is making landfall in Northern Vietnam. Because of the large and sprawling nature of the storm, dangerous flooding rains are widespread across Vietnam, southern China, Hainan Island and even Thailand. Mangkhut should weaken now over land but even when the circulation dissipates, the rain will likely continue for several days.

The article is wrong about there being only 4 hurricanes, 6 out of the 8 named storms have reached cat 1 hurrjcane strength. What is surprising as there have been no Major's (cat 3 and above), and I think Henriette will fall short aswell, especially as some unexpected shear has weakened Henriette to 75kts from the 80kts it was last night

Henriette has continued to strengthen, and winds are now at 80kts. The hurricane has developed a small eye, now visible on satellite imagery. Over the next 12 hours, Henriette could strengthen some more before cooler waters and drier air induce weakening.

The tenth tropical depression of the West Pacific season formed in the central South China Sea (SCS) yesterday, and has since become Tropical Storm Mangkhut, with winds estimated to be at 35kts by JMA. The track is very similar to TS Jebi's, but just further to the southwest. The storm is very broad in nature, with sprawling bands and little deep centralised convection. This suggests strengthening will be slow- however it's worth noting that Jebi looked very similar and managed to strengthen quite rapidly to near typhoon intensity as it approached Hainan Island last week. I'm not saying Mangkhut will do the same but there is a small chance of a similar strengthening episode, as shear is low and waters warm. The most likely outcome however, is for slow strengthening, perhaps to a mid-range tropical storm of about 45 or 50kt intensity. Ridging to the northeast and east if expected to guide Mangkhut to the northwest over the coming days, through the northern SCS into the Gulf Of Tonkin, roughly parallel to the coast of central and northern Vietnam. As Mangkhut is a large storm, rains will be felt through northern Vietnam, Hainan Island and the neighbouring Chinese coast. Mangkhut is expected to make landfall in northern Vietnam in a couple days time.

Henriette has intensified further and has become the season's sixth category 1 hurricane, with winds at 65kts. The hurricane has a well developed central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops. An eye has appeared from time to time on satellite imagery. Henriette has another 24 hours or so to strengthen as it heads northwestwards towards a weakeness in the ridging to the north. After that, Henriette is expected to turn back west as the ridge restrengthens and weaken slowly due to entering a drier and more stable airmass and cooler sea surface temperatures.

Gil has restrengthened to a 35kt tropical storm as it moves into the Central Pacific basin. Convection has continued to increase directly over the LLCC, a sign of low shear. Gil is expected to head generally westwards over the coming days, far enough south to remain over warm water. Shear is expected to remain low too, so Gil is now forecast to reintensify further over the next few days, a dramatic change from the forecast of dissipation.