Somerset Squall

Tropical Depression 08W has struggled to consolidate since it's birth, but has finally shown signs of organisation and strengthening and has become Tropical Storm Cimaron, with winds now at 35kts. Convection has become more persistant over the LLCC, something that wasn't happening yesterday. In addition, banding features are forming around the storm. The system has brought some heavy rains to Luzon but is now moving away to the north. The track forecast has shifted a little to the west since I last posted, as the ridge to the northeast is expected to hold out against the approaching trough. This means a landfall is now progged for southeast China, well east of Hong Kong. Cimaron should still bring heavy rains to Taiwan as it nears. Cimaron has a day or two left to strengthen in low shear and warm water conditions prior to landfall.

A tropical depression has formed east of the Philippines, with sustained winds of 25kts. The depression has an expanding area of convection over the LLCC, but there is no convective banding at present. 08W is forecast to move northwestwards towards Luzon and scrape the northeastern coast. This motion is expected due to ridging to the northeast exerting a southeasterly steering flow. Then, as a trough approaches from the west, 08W is expected to turn towards the north-northwest, scrape western Taiwan, move up the Taiwan Strait and make landfall on Eastern China, in a similar area to where Typhoon Soulik made landfall last week. This track is subject to change and small deviations could mean 08W spends longer over Luzon, or indeed longer over Taiwan. If the track shifts east due to a stronger trough, 08W could instead move up the east coast of Taiwan and largely avoid Eastern China. Either way, Taiwan looks to be in the firing line for some more flooding rains, and Luzon looks very likely to be impacted too. Just how much 08W strengthens really does depend a lot on the track. Shear is low and waters are warm, so land interaction is going to be the main player in just how strong 08W gets. JTWC forecast a peak of 45kts, which could be a little conservative if 08W heads east of Luzon and Taiwan. If it stays to the current track of moving over Northeast Luzon and then Western Taiwan/Eastern China then 45kts may well be the peak. Interesting track:

Unofficial I know but 32.3C here apparently in my back garden. The station is in deep shade but no Stevenson screen etc. Most local station is reading 31.3C.

Warming up very nicely here, 25.6C and rising fast. Think 30C will be breached here today at this rate. Some while since that's happened.

Soulik is now making landfall on China with winds of 70kts. The typhoon will move inland this afternoon and quickly weaken. Rains continue to drench Taiwan, but at least the winds are easing here. Major flooding will occur widely in Eastern China as Soulik winds down, swinging to the north ahead of a trough.

Soulik has made landfall on the northeast coast of Taiwan as an 85kt, cat 2 typhoon. The typhoon never really recovered from the EWRC, which was hindered by an influx of dry air. However, the typhoon is still a very dangerous one and is lashing Taiwan currently with damaging winds and torrential rains. Taiwan will take some more strength from Soulik before the typhoon goes on to make landfall on China, probably at cat 1 typhoon intensity. The system will then dissipate inland but not before drenching Eastern China.

Soulik has weakened to 95kts, cat 2, as it struggles to complete the EWRC. However, the eye is becoming a little better defined again and Soulik is forecast to regain cat 3 status tonight as the upper level environment is still very favourable, along with the ocean heat content. As a result of the EWRC, Soulik has grown in size too which is not good news for Taiwan or China.

Soulik is ungergoing an eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) as evidenced by a secondary eyewall forming around the inner eye. Winds have dropped to 115kts. Soulik is still expected to regain some strength before weakening again in about 24hrs time as shear begins to increase. However, Soulik is still expected to be a dangerous typhoon as it nears Taiwan and Eastern China.

Chantal is looking rather dishevelled. In addition, Recon have been back in and the circulation they found this afternoon has opened up. Therefore, Chantal is no longer a tropical cyclone. There is a chance of regeneration, but Ex-Chantal will have a hard time due to land interaction then less than ideal shear levels when the remnants track north of Cuba.

She had us fooled SB, because recon have found a closed circulation and therefore Chantal is still a tropical storm. Track keeps shifting westwards so it looks like Chantal will cross Haiti and then landfall in Cuba, if it survives this long. Just to put the extremely fast motion into perspecive too, Chantal is only 60 hours old and look how far it's travelled!

Soulik has continued to strengthen and is now a 125kt cat 4 typhoon. Just a 5kt increase in wind would make Soulik the first super typhoon of the season. The convection on the northern side of the eye has weakened slightly, and an Eyewall Replacement Cycle could be imminent. This would cause Soulik to weaken if it occurs, at least temporarily.

Chantal's forward speed, now estimated to be 28kts (!), has weakened the storm to 40kts. Chantal could very well have opened up into a wave, we are waiting for recon to confirm. NHC will discontinue advisories this afternoon if this has occured.

Soulik continues to intensify rapidly. The impressive typhoon is now a cat 4 with winds of 115kts. The eye remains clear, and it seems Soulik is not done yet. It is forecast to become a super typhoon in the next 12 hours, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Soulik perhaps peak as a cat 5. Worryingly for Taiwan, track forecast has shifted a little father south as ridging to the north is expected to remain stronger against the approaching trough in a few days.

Chantal is moving even faster, now at 25kts. Sustained winds have increased to 50kts, which is surprising given the extremely fast motion of the storm. The storm is already beginning to clear the Lesser Antilles and is moving into the Eastern Caribbean. At this speed, it will only be a little over 24 hours before Chantal reaches Hispaniola. Chantal could strengthen a little more before landfall here. It is uncertain whether Chantal will survive the trek over Hispaniola, and the mountains will certainly take a lot of strength out of Chantal at the very least. If Chantal survives, conditions near the Bahamas don't seem all that conducive for much restrengthening anyway at this stage, though this could change.

In the last 18 hours, Soulik has strengthened by 30kts and is now a 95kt cat 2 typhoon. From tropical depression to 95kt typhoon in less than 48 hours is certainly an impressive bout of rapid intensification. Soulik has developed a large, clear eye which is embedded in a circular central dense overcast. The rapid intensification could continue over the next 18 hours, before the upper level outflow becomes less favourable, slowing intensification. JTWC forecast a peak of 115kts (cat 4), which is a fair assessment but could end up being a little low. The track forecast has changed little with Soulik forecast to pass north of Taiwan and slam into Eastern China south of Shanghai in about 4 days time. Shear will have weakened Soulik a little by this stage but it will still be a dangerous typhoon at landfall.

Erick has become a remnant low west of Baja California. Regeneration is not expected as the low continues northwestwards over cold water.

Soulik has rapidly strengthened through the day and is now the season's second typhoon, with winds of 65kts. Soulik's eye continues to become more defined, though is a rather cloud obscured at present. Further strengthening, perhaps rapid, is expected as shear remains low and outflow excellent.

Tropical Depression 07W has become Tropical Storm Soulik, with winds of 45kts. Soulik is strengthening quickly. The storm's bands are well wrapped and an eye appears to be forming, suggesting the system will soon be a typhoon. The upper level environment is very favourable, with low shear and excellent radial outflow, with strong outflow channels being observed in both the south and north quadrants of the storm. This suggests that rapid intensification could occur over the next day or so. Westward motion is expected to continue followed by west-northwest motion induced by an approaching trough beginning to weaken the ridge. This trough is currently expected to inflict shear over Soulik by day 4, causing the cyclone to begin to weaken. as it approaches Taiwan and Eastern China.

Erick continues to suffer at the hand of cooling sea temps and dry air. Some modest convection continue to flare near the LLCC of the 45kt tropical storm. Erick is moving very close to the southern tip of Baja California, and is expected to bring heavy rains and gusty winds here. Erick should weaken further today, and is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in 24hrs time and to a remnant low soon thereafter.

Indeed, the wave in the eastern Atlantic has closed off a circulation and as the winds were 35kts the invest was declared Tropical Storm Chantal in the early hours, the third storm of the 2013 Atlantic season, skipping tropical depression status. Chantal is moving at 23kts, pretty much double the speed of a normal tropical cyclone. This argues against significant strengthening, as storms moving at this speed often have problems staying vertically aligned. However, as shear is set to remain low over the next couple days as Chantal moves towards the Lesser Antilles, at least some modest strengthening is expected. Strong ridging to the north of Chantal will keep the cyclone on a generally west-northwest track, with significant gains in lattitude only occuring as the storm enters the Eastern Carribean, reaching the western extent of the ridge. This should send Chantal to it's first landfall, on Hispaniola. As ever, the exact track is subject to change, but if this did eventuate, Chantal is likely to weaken a fair amount with Hispaniola's mountainous terrain. Increasing shear at this stage will further weaken Chantal.

Tropical Depression 07W has formed a few hundred miles north-northeast of the Northern Mariana Islands. The depression has an expanding area of convection over the LLCC, with formative banding features. Sustained winds are currently 30kts. 07W is expected to head westwards over the next few days on the south side of a steering ridge to the north. In about 4 days time, 07W is expected to turn northwestwards as the cyclone reaches the western extent of the ridge. The environment supports intensification, with low to moderate shear, warm sea temps, and good upper level outflow. Therefore, 07W is expected to become a typhoon in a few days time. Taiwan and eastern China need to monitor 07W as the cyclone will be approaching from the east at days 4 to 5.

95L has now been given a 60% chance (red) of development by NHC. Mezza has summed it's chances up perfectly in his post above, but if a low can close off beneath that deep convection, a tropical storm could form very soon (winds are 35kts in association with the invest).

Dalila has been declared a remnant low. The low is being dragged towards TS Erick, and will be absorbed soon. Therefore, regeneration is not expected.

Erick peaked as a 70kt hurricane. Erick has now weakened to tropical storm intensity with sustained winds of 55kts. The storm has reached cooler waters and is entering an area of dry air. As a result, convection has markedly decreased over Erick's centre and peripheries, leaving the circulation exposed. As Erick journeys further northwest, it will encounter even cooler water so further weakening is expected.

Dalila is clinging on as a tropical depression today. Winds are 25kts. Convection had completely dissipated last night, but has re-developed over the LLCC today. TS Erick is approaching from the east, and Dalila's westward motion is slowing as result of it being inluenced by Erick. Erick's outflow will strongly shear Dalila over the coming days, so the stubborn depression should't survive much longer. It has already lasted longer than expected however.