Somerset Squall

Gabrielle has fluctuated between tropical depression and tropical storm status over the last couple days as it turns northeastwards towards Nova Scotia. Currently, Gabrielle is a tropical depression with sheared convection, but it could re-attain tropical storm status before then becoming extratropical near Nova Scotia.

After Humberto's 75kt peak, it has weakened under heavy shear. Winds are down to 55kts, so Humberto has lost hurricane status. A turn back west will occur soon, and shear should eventually ease. NHC forecast Humberto to eventually regain hurricane status by day 5 as it turns north for a second time in the middle of the Atlantic.

Indeed, we now have TD 10L in the southern Bay Of Campeche. The depression is delivering flooding rains to Mexico currently, and will continue to do so over the next several days. The depression is forecast to move little over the next day or so, before moving west-northwestwards towards the Mexican coast as a ridge builds to the north. Moderate shear will only allow slow strengthening for the next day or so befors it lessens prior to landfall. NHC have 10L peaking at 55kts.

After a week long lull in West Pacific activity, Tropical Storm Man-Yi has formed well south of Japan. The 35kt tropical storm is a broad storm with possibly multiple LLCC's struggling to consolidate. As shear is low and waters are warm, Man-Yi should at least slowly intensify as the broad storm slowly tightens. Man-Yi will move west along the south side of a ridge before a trough breaks down the ridge and recurves Man-Yi northeastwards towards eastern Japan. Man-Yi is expected to peak at minimal typhoon intensity on approach to Japan.

Gabrielle peaked at 50kts but shear has gotten the better of the storm, stripping the convection away from the LLCC. Winds have dropped to 45kts, and further weakening is expected as shear remains high.

At last, a hurricane! Humberto is a 65kt hurricane this morning. The hurricane has well developed banding and deep central convection. There isn't a well defined eye yet but one appears to be developing slowly. Humberto has another day or so to strenghen before the northward track brings it over cooler waters. Humberto should turn back westwards as the trough to the north is replaced with a ridge.

Yep, Gabrielle's back from the grave well north of the eastern Caribbean where it died. Although Gabrielle is a little sheared, it should become a little stronger than it's first measely 35kt peak as it moves north then northeast.

Looks close to becoming a hurricane. Winds are 55kts, and as you can see on the satellite image, Humberto has a well developed central dense overcast- a sure sign of a maturing system. The turn north should also begin soon.

Tropical Depression 09L is now Tropical Storm Humberto, with winds of 35kts. There is some impressive convection over the LLCC at present, indicating that the air is moist in the vicinity of Humberto. Shear is low, and sea temps are warm. Outflow is generally good, and shear will lessen even further over the next day or two allowing the outflow to expand in the eastern semicircle which is currently a little restricted. With all this in mind, I see no reason why Humberto couldn't become a hurricane over the next few days. In fact, models are suggesting that Humberto could become a Major Hurricane prior to arriving in a higher shear and cooler water set up in 4 days time.

Tropical Depression 09L has formed south of the Cape Verde islands in the Eastern Atlantic. Intensity is 30kts. The depression will move westwards initially on the south side of a ridge to the north until a trough creates a weakness and turns the cyclone abruptly towards the northwest. Low shear, warm sea temps and fairly moist air (for the first time this season it seems) should allow 09L to strengthen, and this cyclone actually has a shot at becoming the season's very late first hurricane.

Lorena peaked at 40kts but is now on the way to becoming a remnant low. Lorena has weakened to a tropical depression and has no convection over the LLCC. Passage over cooler water just west of Baja California is expected to prevent convection from returning.

Haha what a joke Gabrielle was! I thought the others were bad enough LOL. Will it come back from the grave? I'm leaning towards not. I can't believe that, at this stage in the season, Andrea remains the strongest TC so far at 55kt tropical storm intensity back in June!

12E became Tropical Storm Lorena yesterday evening, with winds of 35kts. Since then, Lorena has not strengthened further. Although there is some deep convection associated with Lorena, it is not very concentrated or organised, and the LLC is not very well defined. Lorena is closing in on the southern tip of Baja California, so time is running out for any intensification. Heavy rains are likely here over the coming few days, along with the neighbouring mainland.

Tropical Depression 12E has formed from a disturbance moving northwestwards close to coast of Mexico. 12E is located about 150 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and has winds of 30kts. The depression is quite broad and doesn't have a great deal of concentrated convection near the LLCC. Shear is low and waters are warm, but the structure of the depression that I've just described argues against quick intensification. The depression only has a couple days in this envrionment, so it looks like we are going to have only a moderate TS at best from this system, barring any surprises. Henriette remains the strongest hurricane so far this season (90kt cat 2), and we still have no major hurricane. The last time we went through a season in the East Pacific with no major hurricane is 2003, so it's quite uncommon for there to be no Major Hurricane. There is still time of course, but 12E doesn't look like it will be a candidate. In a couple days time, 12E will begin to weaken from it's peak (NHC currently forecast this to be a modest 40kts) as it moves northwestwards into increasing shear and cooler waters west of Baja California. NHC forecast degneration into a remnant low in 4 days time, and complete dissipation of the low by day 5.

Convection is exploding over Gabrielle this morning, with an increasingly large area of very deep convection evident. Puerto Rico is getting drenched with some torrential rainfall at present, and although The Dominican Republic is mainly dry for now, the torrential rains are likely to affect here soon. Winds are at 35kts. The environment is providing mixed signals as to whether Gabrielle can intensify much. Shear is fairly low (for now), and the outflow pattern is good, with poleward outflow being particularly strong in water vapour imagery. However, the air to the north of Gabrielle is dry, and Gabrielle should run into this dry air soon. Additionally, land interaction could holt strengthening, and the strong tropical wave located to Gabrielle's east could also interfere with development. After Gabrielle passes north of the Dominican Republic, strong shear ahead of the trough that's expected to lift Gabrielle northeast could destroy Gabrielle, or at least weaken the cyclone. Unless the high shear in this area eases, I have a hard time believing Gabrielle will survive long once it clears the islands and moves out into the Atlantic.

Thought this was looking good earlier, so not entirely surprised to see the upgrade to TD 07L. Not entirely sure why you say "fish food most likely" though SB, because 07L will certainly be affecting land and people. Dominican Republic look in the firing line along with Puerto Rico, from some flooding rains over the next day or so as 07L threads between the two. Haiti may well escape the worst being on the western side of the land mass of Hispaniola, but some heavy rains could occur here too. Looks like a trough will then pull 07L northeastwards out into the Atlantic. How much 07L strengthens is of course open to question as you say SB, and does very much hinge on how much 07L interacts with Dominican Republic.

Toraji has become extratropical. The centre of the storm has elongated and there is no deep convection over the centre of the storm. Convection continues to shear well northeast of it, causing heavy rains to Central Japan. Extratropical Toraji will continue northeastwards, bringing further heavy rains to the rest of Japan.

Yutu has degenerated into a remnant low, and the system remains completely devoid of any convection. The remnant low is moving southwards, into warmer water, but the air is very dry and shear still moderate to high. Therefore, even though we cannot rule out regeneration, it is not considered likely.

The convection in the southern quadrant of Yutu has dissipated. In addition, the LLC is distorting under high shear. With continued strong shear expected, Yutu will probably die overnight.

Strong southwesterly shear and cold air intrusion have initiated extratropical transition as Toraji nears Japan. Winds are down slightly to 45kts. Toraji will make landfall soon whilst completing extratropical transition. The storm's track has shifted a little further south too, meaning that Toraji's extratropical remnant will move up the spine of Japan rather than to the north. Rains will continue for a while yet, and spread to the rest of Japan with the continued northeasterly motion of the storm.

August's rainfall comes in at very near the average. January: 95.2mm (above average)February: 43.1mm (below average)March: 55.9mm (average) April: 27.3mm (well below average) May: 57.4mm (above average) June: 28.0mm (well below average) July: 71.7mm (well above average) August: 58.3mm (average)2013 so far: 436.9mm (very near average)

Lol at the first line! Very unlikely indeed considering Yutu's location haha.

Convection has increased in the southern quadrant of Yutu this morning, but the LLCC remains exposed. Intensity remains at 35kts according to JMA. Yutu is trapped in weak steering and has started to loop back to the southwest. High shear is forecast to dissipate Yutu over the next 24 hours, over the marginal sea temps of around 25C.

Kiko has been declared a remnant low. Regeneration is not expected as the low has stalled over colder water in a dry environment. Little motion is expected before the low fully dissipates.

Toraji has strengthened over the last 24 hours, and is now a 50kt tropical storm. Convection continues to build over the LLCC, and banding features are becoming more prominant. Toraji is tracking slowly northeastwards towards southwest Japan. This motion is expected to persist, but could slow even more as steering influences become weak. Toraji could dissipate over Japan instead of moving northwards into the Sea Of Japan before beoming extratropical. Very heavy rains will continue spreading northeast through western and central Japan as Toraji closes in, with flooding a likelihood.