Somerset Squall

Narda has lost the remaining convection that was keeping it alive. The system has therefore been declared a remnant low.

Phailin has bombed this afternoon. Winds are now at a 100kts according to JTWC, though I think the estimats is a little conservative. 100kts is cat 3 on the SS scale. With nothing to stop Phailin strengthening over the next couple days as it treks toward India, cat 4 is very likely, and cat 5 is possible. I really hope India are as prepared as they can be for this- but I think this storm is going to be devastating.

The active period continues in the West Pacific, with another tropical depression, 25W, forming just southwest of Guam. The depression has convection building nicely near the LLCC. Strengthening is expected as shear is low and waters warm. The depression is expected to move northwest, then north then northeast around the south, west and north sides of a steering ridge anchored to the northeast. 25W is forecast to become a typhoon before recurving northeast out to sea.

Nari has continued to strengthen as it approaches the Philippines, and winds are now at 60kts. A central dense overcast has formed, and an eye will probably follow soon. JTWC forecast Nari to attain cat 2 typhoon status on the SS scale before landfall on Luzon.

The latest JTWC advisory has Phailin's winds at 55kts. However, latest satellite imagery shows an increasingly well defined eye emerging from the central dense overcast, so expect these winds to rise next update. The quicker than expected strengthening is not good news for India.

02B has strengthened into Tropical Cyclone Phailin, with winds of 40kts. The cyclone has been moving over the Andaman Islands today, bringing high rainfall totals here. A curved banding feature is fuelling some renewed convection over the LLCC this evening, which has been lacking this afternoon. Phailin is expected to push west-northwest further into the Bay Of Bengal, then northwestwards towards eastern India as a weakness in the ridge to the north weakens slightly. With low shear and very warm waters expected along track, Phalin is expected to become a hurricane strength tropical cyclone. High end cat 1 on the SS scale is currently forecast by JTWC, but Phailin could get stronger than this as it has a good 3 days in this favourable environment.

24W has become Tropical Storm Nari, with winds of 35kts. The storm has some deep, centralised convection, with good banding features. Some moderate shear appears to be affecting Nari, but this should ease soon, also allowing for increased outflow. Due to this, Nari is expected to become a typhoon prior to landfall over Luzon. Nari should weaken to a tropical storm but then regain typhoon status as it emerges into the favourable South China Sea.

Narda is now a 25kt tropical depression. The LLCC became completely exposed overnight, and it looked like NHC were going to issue the final advisory this afternoon, but a small cell of convection has flared south of the LLCC, thus prolonging Narda's life a little longer. However, as shear and dry air continue to affect Narda, the depression is not long for this world.

The first tropical cyclone since Mahasen in May has formed in the Indian Ocean. Will have a full post later. Looks like a serious threat to Eastern India.

Tropical Depression 24W has formed east of the Philippines. Winds are currently at 30kts according to JMA, and 25kts according to JTWC. Convection is persisting over the LLCC, with some limited banding features forming too. Shear is low, and waters warm. Therefore, 24W is expected to strengthen. Ridging to the north is expected to push 24W on a near straight westward track, right into the Philippines. JTWC forecast 24W to become a typhoon prior to landfall. Weakening will obviously occur as the cyclone crosses land, but conditions look favourable in the South China Sea for some re-intensification. Vietnam may be in line 24W's second landfall, but this is at least a week away yet so it is uncertain.

Danas has become extratropical over Japan. The storm force low will exit Japan and head out into the open North Pacific.

Well, Narda has fooled us. Since I last posted, convection has been on the decline. Winds have dropped to 40kts. It appears that Narda has ingested some dry air, causing the weakening. Narda will no longer become a hurricane, and instead will weaken at an even faster pace once shear rises to join the dry air to kill Narda.

Danas is closing in on Japan. Winds have dropped to a 100kts, making Danas a cat 3 on the SS scale. The eye has disappeared in satellite imagery, but the typhoon retains a solid central dense overcast. Heavy rains are already moving into southwest Japan, and conditions will get a lot worse here as Danas makes landfall.

Narda has intensified quickly this afternoon, and winds are now at 55kts. The storm has developed a central dense overcast, flanked by strong banding. It won't be long before Narda becomes a hurricane.

After a lull lasting over two weeks, Tropical Storm Narda has formed in the East Pacific. The storm is located at around 13N 120W, well out to sea. Winds have increased to 40kts. Narda has a decent amount of convection over the LLCC, and some fairly strong banding features. As shear is set to remain low and waters warm over the next few days, Narda is expected to become a hurricane. Based on the structure of Narda and the favourable environment ahead, NHC's forecast peak of 70kts could be a little conservative, though based on the behaviour of the previous storms in this basin this year, it may well be near. Narda will not affect land as it takes a typical west-northwestward track over the coming days. In a few days time, shear will rise significantly and the storm will move over colder water, which will quickly weaken Narda. As the storm weakens, it will slow down and crawl towards the west as the steering currents are expected to collapse.

Danas has rapidly intensified over the last 12 hours, and winds are now at 125kts, making Danas a cat 4 on the SS scale. The typhoon has retained a well defined eye, and the central dense overcast has become fully symmetrical. Danas is probably near it's peak, as shear will rise soon as Danas turns north in the vicinity of Okinawa. The typhoon should then begin extratropical transition as it recurves northeast into western Japan.

For what it's worth, Karen has dissipated before landfall. Another victim to the hostile Atlantic! This year has been so strange! I can't believe there has only been 2 hurricanes and the strongest storm of the year (so far) was only a cat 1!

Danas has strengthened further, and is now a 95kt cat 2. The eye is now fully clear, but the central dense overcast is a little lopsided. However, some further intensification is still expected over the next day or two.

Fitow maintains a large eye but the convection surrounding it is eroding under dry air and increasing shear. Nonetheless, Fitow is still a 75kt typhoon and will likely still be a typhoon at landfall tonight. Northern Taiwan will receive some rains from Fitow, but Eastern China are going to take the brunt of Fitow's weather.

Danas' winds are now at 80kts, the upper reaches of cat 1 on the SS scale. An eye is now apparent on satellite imagery. The eye is gradually clearing out, which is a sign of an intensifying typhoon. I expect Danas to intensify further and quite quickly over the next day or two as it approaches Okinawa.

A state of emergency has been declared in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida. For what exactly? This? LMAO!!! I really have seen it all now

Danas is now a typhoon, with winds of 65kts. The typhoon retains a solid central dense overcast with tight banding. It's small size and very favourable environment does suggest that the already fairly quick intensification might just get even quicker over the next day or two. Though JTWC's estimated peak of 95kts is as fair as any, it may well end up being too low. We shall see.

Danas has strengthened, and winds are now at 55kts. The storm is fairly small, but has tightly wrapped banding around a small central dense overcast feature. Based on this structure, it won't be long before Danas is a typhoon, and indeed, there is a chance for rapid intensification as the environment is highly conducive, with low shear, radial outflow and warm along track sea temperatures. The storm is currently moving west-northwest but should turn northwest towards Okinawa and then recurve northeast into Western Japan by day 4/5, where the storm will become extratropical. Fitow on the left, Danas on the right:

Karen continues to get battered by both shear and dry air, and has weakened since it formed. Winds are down to 35kts. The LLCC is often exposed to view, and the majority of the convection remains well east of this centre. Karen is expected to brush Louisiana but ulltimately make landfall on the Florida Panhandle, but should be no more than a moderate tropical storm at landfall, unless shear lets up.

Fitow has continued to intensify and is now a 90kt cat 2. Fitow maintains a large eye with some fairly deep convection surrounding it. Fitow is likely peaking as shear will rise through this afternoon and sea temps will generally fall as Fitow approaches the coast of Eastern China. JTWC forecast Fitow to weaken to a tropical storm before landfall.