Somerset Squall

Winds are up to 60kts now. I think there is a real chance Raymond could become a major hurricane if this rapid strengthening continues. If it does it would be about time as Henriette remains the strongest storm of the season so far at a modest 90kt cat 2. The last season without a major hurricane was 2003. NHC forecast a peak of 85kts, but even admit that this could be conservative. Raymond's small size also favours continued rapid strengthening.

Small Raymond is strengthening. Winds are up to 45kts currently. Convection is blossoming over the LLCC, with some healthy banding taking shape. Shear is low in the area, and waters are very warm. This means that Raymond will likely become a hurricane, and quite soon if the current structure of Raymond is anything to go by. The track forecast remains the same- a drift north towards the Mexican coast is expected, followed by a westwards turn as ridging rebuilds to the north. Raymond's centre is expected to remain off of the coast, but heavy rains are still likely to affect the coast. Shear will remain low for the next few days but then should start to increase, which could cause some weakening as Raymond heads westwards or west-southwestwards.

Yet another tropical depression in this active October in the West Pacific has formed, and is located well out in the far east of the basin, nearly 1000 miles east of Guam. Winds are 30kts currently. Convection is expanding over the LLCC, and banding features are taking shape, so it won't be long before 28W is a tropical storm IMO. Shear is low, waters are warm and there is plenty of moisture for 28W to tap into. So, again, we may see a fairly intense typhoon in the West Pacific from this system. The subtropical ridge to the north of the depression will be the primary steering influence. 28W is forecast to move west-northwestwards then turn north as it reaches the western extent of the ridge. By day 4, weakening should begin as 28W runs into high shear.

Indeed, and after 36 hours of maintaining cat 5 intensity, the eyewall replacement cycle has weakened Francisco to cat 4 intensity, with winds of 125kts. Shear is starting to rise also, and will rise further on the northward track. Thus, Francisco will probably weaken even after the eyewall replacement cycle completes.

Tropical Storm Raymond has formed in the east of the basin, off the south coast of Mexico. The storm is set to take an unusual path and drift northeast towards the coast of Mexico into a weakness in the ridge to the north. The ridging is expected to build back in in a few days time, which may cause Raymond to turn back west away from the coast. There are large uncertainties however, as a later turn west would mean that Raymond makes landfall. Conditions are favourable for intensification, with low shear and warm sea temps in the area. Regardless of what happens with track, portions of Mexico are in for, yet again, some high rainfall totals and flooding this week.

27W remains a sheared tropical depression this evening, with winds of 25kts. The LLCC is almost completely exposed well to the north of the main convective mass. There is quite a lot of convective activity, but not close to the LLCC. Shear continues to affect 27W, in part due to the proximity to Super Typhoon Francisco to the west. As the seperation distance between the two cyclones reduces, 27W is expected to shear apart. An image of Francisco and 27W (27W's LLCC is located near the small lobe of convection, not the large mass east of Francisco):

I wonder if this one will achieve major hurricane status? Still no major hurricane for this season, which is unusual. A late season surprise perhaps? It'll be interesting to see. Mexico certainly looks in for a drenching over the next few days though.

Not yet at least. Japan need to be very wary of this one. Though Francisco will be weaker on approach, it'll still likely to be a typhoon, with a possibly dangerous storm surge and high rainfall totals. Nice satellite run of Francisco. It's surprising that there hasn't been an eyewall replacement cycle yet. With a storm that has been a super typhoon for as long as Francisco has, I would've expected one by now.

Tropical Depression 27W has formed well to the north-northeast of Guam and northeast of Super Typhoon Francisco. Winds are 25kts currently. Some deep convection has persisted over the LLCC, prompting JTWC to upgrade to a tropical depression. However, the long term future for the depression looks bleak. Shear is increasing due to the outflow from Super Typhoon Francisco, and 27W is forecast to be dragged towards the much larger and stronger cyclone and will probably be absorbed in less than 2 days. Given the increasing shear, significant intensification appears unlikely.

Francisco has become a category 5 this morning, with winds of 140kts. This is the second cat 5 of the season, the other being Usagi, and the third worldwide this year, with Usagi and Phailin in the North Indian Ocean last week being the others. Eyewall replacement cycles will be the main factor in intensity changes over the next day or so whilst the environment remains otherwise favourable.

The wobbles would be to do with the typhoon itself I would've thought, may be something to do with the rapid intensification. Well, Francisco is now the season's third Super Typhoon (the others being cat 4 Super Typhoon Utor and cat 5 Super Typhoon Usagi). Winds have increased to 135kts, making Francisco a high end cat 4 on the SS scale. Francisco is likely to become a cat 5 very soon as shear remains low and outflow strong. What a beauty!

Francisco is now a cat 4 with winds of 120kts. The eye has shrunk considerably overnight from it's large size of yesterday. Thick, curved bands continue to wrap around the central dense overcast. Francisco has another good 72hrs to strengthen, as in this time period, shear is set to remain low and outflow excellent. Therefore, barring any eyewall replacement cycles, Francisco should continue to intensify.

Francisco has continued to rapidly intensify and is now a cat 3 on the SS scale, with winds of 110kts. JTWC forecast a peak of 135kts, but it could easily get stronger than that in the low shear, warm sea temps and abundant moisture.

Francisco has become a typhoon, with winds of 70kts. The forming eye has developed into a rather large eye this morning, in a circular central dense overcast, flanked by impressive banding features. Further rapid strengthening is likely. It's hard to believe this system was a tropical depression just over 24 hours ago! Francisco has been drifting south overnight, but is expected to turn north then northwest as the steering ridge building to the northeast assumes steering influence.

CIMSS is a brilliant site for satellite imagery and other TC data. Interesting to note that the shear is in the "Very Favourable" category for the next 24hrs, and the "maximum potential intensity" is 888mb. Maximum potential intensity is a measure of how strong a storm can get in the region it's in, at the time of year, in a perfect environment.

Indeed, an eye is clearly developing in latest satellite imagery, and Francisco is rapidly intensifying. Winds are up to 60kts according to the latest JTWC advisory. I expect the winds to continue to rocket up.

A nasty storm indeed. Initially Wipha was forecast to head to the southeast of Japan, but that track kept getting shunted further west. 122mm of rain in one hour, that is staggering!

26W has become Tropical Storm Francisco, with winds of 35kts. The storm has well developed banding and deep, centralised convection. I think that Francisco is a very good candidate for a rapid intensification phase, which could begin soon. The structure of Francisco, along with the highly conducive environment ahead, makes me think it won't belong before Francisco is a typhoon.

Another tropical depression has formed in this late flurry of activity in the West Pacific. Tropical Depression 26W is located near Guam, and has actually formed near enough in the same spot Wipha did. The depression has winds of 25kts currently, but has persistant, deep convection and formative banding features, particularly in the southern quadrant. The depression is moving to the southwest in low level flow, but will soon be strong enough to be steered by a building ridge to the northeast, sending 26W northwestwards in a few days. Low shear, warm sea temps and good outflow should allow 26W to become quite an intense typhoon over the next several days.

Wipha is well on the way to becoming extratropical, and JTWC have issued their last advisory. Winds are still at 65kts. Wipha is racing northeastwards at 30kts as it becomes embedded in the mid-lattitude westerly wind belt. Convection has become increasingly shallow as dry air wraps around the system, but Wipha is still battering Japan with hurricane force winds and heavy rain nonetheless. Wipha should move away from Japan tomorrow.

Shear has prevented persistant convection with Priscilla. Without persistant convection, Priscilla's LLCC has weakened. Priscilla has been downgraded to a tropical depression, with winds of 30kts. Shear is easing over Priscilla, especially now Octave has dissipated. However, dry air is wrapping around the depression, so further weakening is expected as Priscilla veers west.

Octave, surprisingly, survived it's trip over the Baja California Peninsula and emerged into the Gulf Of California. The LLCC has moved inland again, this time in mainland Mexico. The rugged terrain, coupled with high shear, has finally destroyed the circulation, and Octave is no longer a tropical cyclone. Heavy rains may continue for a day or two in the area.

Got down to 2.6C here this morning. Looks to be a nice day ahead though.

Looks to become a potent extratropical storm for sure.

The death toll from Nari on the Philippines stands at 13. The typhoon is now making landfall on Vietnam with winds of 75kts. This is weaker than it's first landfall in the Philippines, but nonetheless, Nari is capable of causing life threatening floods and mudslides.